Predicting the Card of the Year 2022: UFC 280
Filed Under: Sports, Stupidity
I am somewhat embarrassed to talk about this, but I’m afraid I have developed something of a sickness as of late. Despite my best intentions, I have become infected with a brain parasite for which there is no known cure, and a near 100% malignancy rate. It’s time to come out of the closet and admit it: I have become a die-hard MMA fan.
Although I hate to admit it, these are my people.
In my time watching sports, I’ve found that UFC fans (although not necessarily MMA fans as a whole) are perhaps the dumbest group of fans out there, and this is coming from a Cleveland Browns fan. Conor McGregor, who has not won a fight in 2 years, or a real fight in 6, continues to be a fan favorite simply because he’s a pretty loud and obnoxious guy. Fights in the crowd as UFC events are exceedingly common, as a significant portion — perhaps even a majority — of the crowd still believes that they will make it into the octagon some day as a fighter, regardless of age, skill set or remaining number of brain cells. Conversations regarding the legitimate attributes of fighters online quickly descend into shouting matches of decreasing coherence. And I feel right at home.
Now, I know not everyone has the same masochistic tendencies as I do, so I won’t expect you to engage with the sport beyond enjoying the occasional knockout. For those who might be interested in gaining a bit more context however, I’ve assembled a brief write-up with some predictions for UFC 280 this weekend in what should be the best lineup of fights to grace the octagon this year.
Welterweight bout: Belal Muhammad 21–3 (+120) vs Sean Brady 15–0 (-140)
This fight is technically not on the main card as the prelim headliner, but I love the match up here so I thought I’d give my thoughts. I’ve seen significantly more from Muhammad, so I’ll start with him. Between the two, Muhammad appears to have faced better competition, with wins over Luque and an admittedly aged combo of “Wonderboy” Thompson and BJJ ace Damian Maia. I like his wrestling as well, and considering he’s been training with the UFC grappling GOAT Khabib, I like him here as an underdog. Brady has been hot lately, and has shown some of his own wrestling chops in his fight against Michael Chisea, but I think Khabib in Belal’s corner might be the x-factor here despite Brady’s unbeaten record.
Prediction: Muhammad by decision
Women’s Flyweight bout: Kaitlyn Chookagian 18–4 (+175) vs Manon Fiorot 9–1 (-210)
Another banger of a fight between the vet in Chookagian vs the rising star in Fiorot. Both have been impressive in my limited experience watching them, especially on their feet. I’m with the oddsmakers on this one however, Chookagian looks to have lost a step in recent years while Fiorot appears to be entering her prime. Look for her to enter the title conversation here if she wins.
Prediction: Fiorot by decision
Lightweight bout: Beneil Dariush 21–4 (+160) vs Mateusz Gamrot 21–1 (-190)
In a card filled with interesting bouts, this one just might catch my eye the most. Dariush came onto my radar after embarrassing fan favorite Tony Ferguson in May of last year, and with a string of impressive wins over the last few years, Dariush is a force to be reckoned with in nearly all phases of the game. The issue here is that he is facing the white-hot Gamrot, one of several Polish fighters with good wrestling chops to arrive on the scene as of late. People speak about Gamrot’s wrestling with exceeding reverence, and while Dariush is certainly no slouch in the wrestling department either, if this goes to the mat it might be over quickly for the underdog. Even then, I trust Dariush’s track record more, and especially at plus-money, I’m riding with the him, although I have a feeling I might come to regret this one.
Prediction: Dariush by decision
Bantamweight bout: Petr Yan 16–3 (-270) vs Sean O’Malley (+220)
Although this fight features the most lopsided odds on the main card, it should entertain nonetheless. As the former champ and heavy favorite, there appears to be no good reason why Yan won’t be able to end this one quickly. At 5'11", O’Malley might be able to use his height advantage and keep Yan at a distance for a time, but Yan’s relentless attacking and solid cardio puts him leagues above O’Malley in my eyes. O’Malley on the other hand, has put on some impressive performances against inferior opponents but was not as dominant against top level competition in Chito Vera or Munhoz. The moment Yan called O’Malley, who arrived in Abu Dabi with pink hair, “a whore they found by the side of the road”, it was the beginning of the end.
Prediction: Yan by TKO
Bantamweight title fight: Aljamain Sterling © 21–3 (-175) vs TJ Dillashaw 18–4 (+150)
If TJ Dillashaw were anyone else, I might be quick to comment on his exciting scrambling and precise striking; although Dillashaw (or “Pillashaw” as he has become known) gives one many reasons to hate him. Dillashaw, who was suspended for two years from the UFC after failing a drug test for PED’s, is fresh off an (undeserved IMO) decision win against the charming Corey Sandhagan that put him into the title conversation. I might have even considered picking him here if he wasn’t straight up bragging about doing steroids at the press conference this week, but obviously I cannot award such behavior. On the other hand, Sterling is one of the few fighters who have defied my initial appraisal. After an anemic performance in his first title fight against Yan (which Yan lost by DQ after dealing an illegal grounded knee in the 4th), Sterling shocked the world and used his outstanding wrestling skills to secure a decision and legitimize his bantamweight belt. Sterling seems to be entering his prime, while Dillashaw’s last hope at regaining the title might be gone if he can’t find a way to win here.
Prediction: Sterling by submission
Lightweight title fight: Charles Olivera 33–8 (+160) vs Islam Makhachev 22–1 (-190)
This is it folks, the big one. In a lightweight title clash that many had been predicting for months, if not years, the champ Olivera looks to solidify his case as the lightweight GOAT against the Dagistani wrestler in Makhachev. After starting his MMA career at a young age and taking his lumps, Olivera has put together quite an impressive string of wins over the last few years: beating the wily Ferguson to earn a title bout, destroying sparkplug Michael Chandler for the vacant title, then defending against razor sharp Poirier , and smashing Gaethje in dominant fashion (although he missed weight, so technically the title is currently vacant!) . Olivera, with sneaky good Brazilian Jujitsu game from the bottom and some laser-focused striking on his feet, is in the midst of an all-time career renaissance. With that being said, if anyone in the lightweight division is going to dethrone Olivera, then it will probably end up being Makhachev. Although not against the same level of competition, Makhachev has been dominant in his recent outings, displaying wrestling skills that no one in the UFC has shown since the Khabib era. A smothering wrestling attack could end things quickly for Makhachev, who has not lost since a 1st round knockout in 2015. Dagestani wrestlers are about as good a bet you can find in the sport, and so until proven otherwise, I’m riding with Islam (inshallah)
Prediction: Makhachev by submission
