Finding the perfect XV to maul the All Blacks

With just ten days left until the British & Irish Lions tour kicks off, who are the favourites to start the crucial test matches?

It is a constant on Lions tours that somebody will force their way into the side on the back of tour form, which this time out should be intriguing as the Super Rugby teams are set to be at full strength for the warm-up and mid-week games. But, a large number of the test team will already be written down at this stage, in principle anyway. So, with most of his players now at his disposal — only ten are still in club action - who is at the front of Warren Gatland’s mind? Here are some talking points.

Injury to Billy V

The first tour injury casualty is Billy Vunipola. Already carrying a shoulder injury, it seems that two bruising weekends in a row have aggravated it to the point that he now cannot tour. Vunipola was favourite to start at number 8 and would have provided a real focal point to the Lions tight attack with his dynamic ball-carrying and subtle offloading game. James Haskell has been called up in his place, a fine player in his own right but this loss will hurt.

Backrow Selection

This was always going to be an interesting battle for positions and the loss of Vunipola makes it even more so. The tour captain, Sam Warburton, is an openside, but has at times been moved to blindside for Wales to accommodate Justin Tipuric. Two of the number eights, CJ Stander and Ross Moriarty, have extensive experience at blindside and a number of the second rows have experience there also. Sean O’Brien has had a delayed return from injury and may have seen a marginal role as a result, but in the absence of Vunipola his explosive ball carrying may become a real requirement. That’s not even mentioning Peter O’Mahony and Taulupe Faletau, who, having returned to fitness for the end of the six nations, have been in blistering form.

Safe to say that Gatland and his backroom team have a wealth of options here. I think Haskell is likely to be a mainstay of the midweek team, where he will be joined by Ross Moriarty. The starting test backrow is likely to be Stander (at blindside), Warburton and Faletau. Bench could be anybody, but likely Tipuric or O’Brien if he can prove his fitness. O’Mahony is the one who could force his way in to disrupt everything and he should certainly see time in at least one test.

Second Row options

Three all action athletes and one old head make up this group. The omission of Joe Launchbury and the Gray brothers raised a few eyebrows, but it points to the way that Gatland wants to play this game. He wants to tire the Kiwis out, with athletic second rows providing an advantage at the breakdown and winning possession. Itoje is the rising star and likely starter, pairing him with his club-mate George Kruis could be a popular choice. Iain Henderson is a bit of a wildcard, not a regular starter for his country he may be seen as a good bench option, offering backrow cover and excellent ball carrying. I think we will see Itoje partnered by Alun Wyn Jones, with the latter running the lineout and providing a calming influence to the pack.

Front Row

Ireland are well represented here with the full Irish front row traveling; Jack McGrath, Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong. The favourite for the Hooker spot would have been Ken Owens, but he is currently nursing an ankle injury which opens the door for a straight battle between Best and Jamie George. Tadhg Furlong has reasonable claims for title of world’s best tighthead, but will be challenged all the way by Dan Cole with his English compatriot Kyle Sinckler likely with the midweek team. Jack McGrath has a good case for the loosehead jersey, but the loss of Billy Vunipola may make the selection of his brother Mako more likely, Joe Marler seems the least likely starter of this trio. I think Gatland will opt for Mako Vunipola, Jamie George and Tadhg Furlong, though I don’t expect Vunipola and George to remain first choice for all the tests.

Halfbacks

This group has already seen one player drop out with Ben Youngs deciding to stay home to be with his family at a tough time. Greg Laidlaw is his replacement and slots in as a probable captain for the midweek side. That leaves Conor Murray and Rhys Webb; Murray is in excellent form and my choice to start. At outhalf we have a complicated situation. Johnny Sexton was the starter on the last Lions tour and surely was penciled in to start this time, however he has struggled with injury recently and had a poor showing for Leinster in their recent semi-final. Owen Farrell is in excellent form, but plays at inside centre for England and even though Gatland stated that Farrell was traveling as an outhalf, he is surely considering the playmaking possibilities of two outhalves on the field together. Dan Biggar was a somewhat unpopular choice for the squad as he has not been at his best recently, but he certainly has the capability to push his way in if he gets a good run. I pick Sexton to win this battle leaving us with the Irish halfback pair lining out for the Lions.

Centre

Another intriguing positional grouping where we have three Englishmen; one out of form but would have been the favourite this time last year in Jonathan Joseph, the exciting Elliott Daly and the unexpected league convert Ben Te’o. Hoping to keep the three of them at bay is previous test starter Johnathan Davies who famously took Brian O’Driscoll’s jersey last time out and Robbie Henshaw of Ireland. I predict that Gatland will opt for Owen Farrell at inside centre and will move Robbie Henshaw to outside centre , though it will be a tight call with Davies.

Back Three

There are, as you would expect, a number of strong candidates for the wing spots. George North has not been at his imperious best this season and his selection in the touring squad can be viewed as one of hope rather than expectation, but don’t count him out. His Welsh teammate Liam Williams offers creativity and no small amount of skill and pace. The English pair Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell are out and out speedsters while Tommy Seymour of Scotland is a more imposing presence. Gatland can pick and choose here depending on how he wants to play, but I think we will see Liam Williams and Tommy Seymour in a very tight call.

At fullback the Lions have the previously untouchable Leigh Halfpenny, attacking genius Stuart Hogg and Ireland’s defensive organiser Jared Payne. Halfpenny has not played up to his previous levels this season but in Toulon’s recent playoff game he showed glimmers of returning to his best. Hogg is an irresistible attacking threat, but questions have been asked about his defence. Jared Payne was somewhat a surprise for the squad, but he is capable of supplying defensive leadership from the back (or indeed from the centre spot) and provides an extra playmaking option. This choice will all depend on what philosophy Gatland employs and indeed if his much discussed loyalty to his Welsh players has any truth behind it. I think this one will be a question mark all through the warmups, but we will see Stuart Hogg start the first test, with Payne’s flexibility seeing him as a perfect bench option.

Injury and excellent performances can change everything, that is one of the beauties of the Lions tour. But, with a 41 man squad it will be difficult for everybody to get a fair chance to show what they can do, so previous impressions will carry weight into selection.

There are ten days to go and a lot of rugby to be played before the first test on 24th June, the tactics and selections in the interim will be intriguing.