Finely balanced Lions Tour comes down to Auckland Test

Warren Gatland and Steve Hansen make final preparations ahead of Saturday’s crunch series decider

The British and Irish Lions squared the series with the All Blacks in nail-biting fashion last Saturday and we now look forward to the decider this weekend.

There have been selection debates and multiple talking points over the weeks, but what will be at the forefront of the coaches’ minds during the preparation for this crucial match?

Selection

Warren Gatland has opted for an entirely unchanged 23. He is obviously happy to reward the players that brought victory last week. It is a little surprising that Mako Vunipola has held onto the starting shirt, his indiscipline and a less than stellar scrummaging outing had most predicting he would switch to Jack McGrath. But Gatland obviously likes the combination of Vunipola starting and McGrath coming on to close it out and believes that Mako will reward his faith.

Steve Hansen does not have the luxury of selecting the same team, but has made more than just the enforced changes. While he has gone with the same forward pack, it is in the back-line where he has rung the changes. Ngani Laumape moves from the bench to replace the suspended Sonny Bill Williams, with Malakai Fekitoa taking his spot among the reserves. Julian Savea is recalled to add an imposing threat on the wing and Jordie Barrett starts at fullback. Jordie is the third Barrett into the squad and at just twenty, earns his first start for New Zealand. Hyped as an even better prospect than brother Beauden, the assumption is that he may relieve his older brother of the kicking duties.

Discipline

This is an area that will have exasperated both coaches last week. The headline grabber was the red card received by Sonny Bill Williams for his shoulder charge on Anthony Watson, but there was a lot more on the discipline side of things that had a bearing on the outcome. The decisive penalty converted by Owen Farrell was conceded by Charlie Faumuina for a no arms tackle in the air on Kyle Sinckler. Now, while some have questioned whether Sinckler actually jumped into the tackle, the penalty seemed completely justified.

For the Lions’ part, Gatland will not be happy in this facet of the game either. Typically teams will aim to concede fewer than ten penalties in a match, far fewer if possible. The Lions conceded 13 this time out, ten of them kickable. That only seven were actually converted has also figured into Hansen’s selection thinking.

Mako Vunipola conceded four penalties, including one for a hit on a grounded Beauden Barrett, which led to a yellow card. Comparisons have been drawn to similar clearouts by All Black players, but Vunipola himself performed another unnecessary clearout on Anton Lienert-Brown in the first test, so he can really have no complaints. Immediately after earning the game winning penalty, Kyle Sinckler had to be restrained by his teammates and he carried on his petulant outburst after the final whistle.

Both coaches will be keenly aware of how fine are the margins at this level of the game. Three points or 10 minutes in the sin-bin could prove the difference on Saturday. With this in mind they will be hammering home the need for cool heads to all their players.

Stick or twist on tactics?

In the first test the All Blacks played unusually close to the ruck and moved the ball quickly, this allowed them to get in behind the Lions and keep the gain-line moving. This was key to keeping the Lions defence off balance and winning the territorial battle. The response in the second test was for the Lions to play the flankers closer to the breakdown and to deploy Sam Warburton to clog up the ruck area, denying the fast ball that had caused such trouble.

The Lions pack were outplayed in the physical stakes in the first meeting, losing ground in the tackle and at the ruck area. Again, this is something that was specifically addressed by Gatland, bringing in Maro Itoje for George Kruis and Warburton for Peter O’Mahony. It also seems that defence coach Andy Farrell instructed the players to get off the line extremely fast at the breakdown, in fact illegally fast, but what’s good for the goose…..

We saw some huge hits from Alun Wyn Jones, Mako Vunipola, Sean O’Brien and Tadhg Furlong. This continued when the substitutes entered the fray where Jack McGrath and Courtney Lawes made their presence felt in the tackle area.

Pairing Johnny Sexton and Farrell gave the Lions added width which they used to great effect in opening up the All Blacks, particularly in the lead up to Conor Murray’s try. This was a decision to take creativity over solidity in dropping Te’o to the bench. Hansen showed a very clear wish to limit this width when after the sending off he chose to remove Jerome Kaino and bring on Ngani Laumape, clearly signalling that he was happy for seven men to take on the Lions up front, but he was not happy to leave Sexton and Farrell to attack six in the backs.

So, Hansen surprised Gatland in the first test with the directness of his approach. The Lions responded with a number of personnel and tactical changes for the second test, reaping the rewards. Are all the cards on the table now or has a new wrinkle been identified by either coaching side that they will look to exploit with a tweak of the tactics?

We can expect the Lions to target the inexperienced midfield partnership of Laumape and Anton Lienert-Brown, hoping for some lapses in defence and also to see how well Jordie Barrett settles on this massive occasion. I expect the younger Barrett to settle in impeccably and Laumape to be the player where the Lions are likely to get the most change. Hansen has the veteran Fekitoa waiting on the bench for precisely this eventually.

Kicking

Kicking has been prominent in both tests with the very structured approach of the Lions contrasting with the more off-the-cuff chips and grubbers from Barrett and Aaron Cruden. The New Zealand back three have looked shaky at times under Murray’s box kicks, while the Lions have for the most part dealt well with the probing kicking in behind, but have themselves looked vulnerable on the more rare higher kicks, Liam Williams in particular having a few high profile fluffs. There were also some loose kicks from Aaron Smith, Sexton, Elliot Daly and Cruden.

New Zealand have again shuffled their back three and while Savea is a huge threat with ball in hand, fielding kicks is certainly not his forte. He will likely be hidden on defence with the Barrett brothers and Israel Dagg covering the backfield between them.

The Lions, with multiple excellent kicking options will look to isolate Savea and to use Jordie Barrett’s youthful exuberance against him. Make no mistake though, giving Barrett and Savea space with poor kick-chase will lead to a long day.

Kicking will remain a key part of the contest and both coaches will be stressing the importance of winning in this area.

Use of bench

Hansen was forced into early use of his bench in both matches so far. In game one there were two injuries in the first half necessitating a reshuffle and in game two the sending off forced his hand early. Gatland on the other hand was able to make his changes as he wished and in the opinion of many, he has been a little slow to use his replacements.

A case in point was Mako Vunipola who was struggling at the scrum and getting a bit ragged around the field, really he should have been replaced before he received his yellow card. Stander, Owens, Te’o, Nowell and Webb will have felt they deserved a run and while it was understandable to not make changes in the tense final five minutes, Stander and Te’o certainly would have been useful around the 60 minute mark for an injection of energy to push for the victory.

It has been a long, punishing series and fatigue will begin to catch up with some of the players, adroit bench usage will be required.

Prediction

The Lions have built a great sense of belief within the squad and have huge momentum coming off their victory last week. The All Blacks will feel they only lost because of a red card and their fierce pride will see them hit the field looking to reassert their position as the world’s best team.

The Eden park factor — 23 years unbeaten on this ground — will also give the New Zealanders belief when times get tough. We are in for a monstrous battle between two teams and coaches that now know each other very well. It is a tight game to call and New Zealand are heavy favourites, but I am going to go with the settled Lions side to make history.

Whatever the result, this test series has shown us that there is plenty of life left in the Lions concept, whatever some of the naysayers may want to believe.