Lions v New Zealand — The Final Countdown
The preamble is all but complete, just a few days separate the Lions from the first test against the All Blacks.
With the Highlanders and Maori games done and dusted, the side will be 99% selected in Warren Gatland’s mind. Only a truly exceptional performance on Tuesday or an injury will change his mind at this stage.
Who has stood up to be counted and who has failed to make an impression?
Loosehead
Mako Vunipola has done everything asked of him and is the clear front-runner to start. Jack McGrath has not hit his own heights and Joe Marler seems a step below, having failed to impress against the Highlanders.
Hooker
This is a very tight battle. Jamie George seems to be in the best form. Ken Owens had a slow start, but has been steady since and is a Gatland favourite. Rory Best improved his lineout work with a perfect day against the Highlanders and was excellent at the breakdown. However, captaining the team this Tuesday does not augur well.
Tighthead
Kyle Sinckler has stepped up in a major way with even a couple of clean breaks to his credit. Tadhg Furlong has bubbled along under the radar but still looked solid and was a key cog in a dominant scrum against the Maori. Dan Cole has been penalised a few times and looked a bit off the pace.
Second Row
Alun Wyn Jones has played key minutes and shown guile throughout. Maro Itoje, Iain Henderson and George Kruis have all operated below their ceilings, though Henderson had some nice interventions against the Highlanders. Lawes was playing well, but having to leave the field after a bang to the head against the Highlanders has hurt his playing time. I seem to be in the minority in thinking that Kruis is not a dead set starter. For me, when your lineout specialist fails to recognise incorrect numbers — as happened against the Maori — that is a huge black mark. I think Alun Wyn Jones is the one locked in, with his partner being the question mark.
#8
Taulupe Faletau has been consistently impressive and rightly owns this shirt.
Blindside
Ross Moriarty was always up against it and an injury has unfortunately ruled him out. I wouldn’t call CJ Stander a one trick pony, but he does have a major trick and it has not delivered for him so far, though he has looked a little knackered to be fair and is still delivering a mammoth amount of work. James Haskell will be happy to have toured but is well behind others. Peter O’Mahony has met every challenge thrown at him, including captaincy against the Maori, and has pushed himself to the front of the queue to start.
Openside
Justin Tipuric has looked good, but seemingly in little actual game time and may be one of those that falls through the cracks. Sean O’Brien has proven his fitness and knowing what he is capable of, that might be enough. He is a man the New Zealanders actually fear, the importance of that should not be underestimated. That leaves us with Sam Warburton, his form would not suggest it, but Gatland will be very tempted to start his captain, the selection of Alun Wyn Jones in the second row would ease the captaincy pressure however.
Scrum Half
Conor Murray has been the best organiser and executed the gameplan pefectly, including outstanding use of the box-kick. Rhys Webb has looked good individually, but has not delivered the service and territory of Murray. Greig Laidlaw has done nothing wrong, but is a distant third place.
Outhalf
Gatland has kept his cards close to his chest on whether we will see a Sexton, Farrell partnership and the injury to Owen Farrell has muddied the waters even further. Farrell seemed nailed on to start somewhere, but where? I believe Johnathan Sexton has delivered enough to start, another who has improved with every appearance. Plus, if a returning Farrell is deemed fit to play, it would be good to have a kicking option beside him to take strain off his leg. Dan Biggar has been solid, but you get the feeling that he was always third choice.
Centre
This has been an area of disappointment on the tour with a lot of opportunities to score being wasted. Surprise selection Ben Te’o is the only player to have delivered to his potential. This makes playing Farrell at centre all the more tempting, but I worry that his injury may see him miss the first test. If called upon, the Farrell option could see Te’o shift to outside centre, but it looks like Gatland is favouring Johnathan Davies as his 13. Unfortunately, the Irish duo of Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne have not demanded inclusion.
Wing
Another problem area with little positive to show for the tour so far. Anthony Watson has been the best of a bad bunch. Nowell has been outplayed in one game and shown little else. Tommy Seymour has mixed the good with the bad, but tellingly was dominated in the air by Naholo. Elliot Daly has been given few chances and has not distinguished himself with the time he has received. Liam Williams had one terrible game, but has looked good since and is eager for work all over the field. George North has been a shadow of himself, but seems, worryingly, to be positioned to start. I would choose Williams over North, but his presence in the side for Tuesday does not look good.
Fullback
Stuart Hogg’s unfortunate facial injury and subsequent exit from the tour means Leigh Halfpenny is the only player that has received serious consideration at fullback. He upped his game massively against the Maori and tellingly he has been taking the placekicks.
To me it looks like there are only a few positions that will demand much discussion between Gatland and his coaching staff; one second row, one flank, a centre and a winger. The rest seem to have been decided. Here is the team that I believe we will see selected.
