NFL: The Offseason Rankings
The way too early NFL Rankings, based on how much teams have improved this year so far.
As anyone who has read my first few articles for The Con can tell you, the NFL offseason makes me grumpy.
You see, most football fans are like cigarette smokers in denial. There are a lot of ugly things surrounding the NFL these days — from alleged concussion cover-ups to nonsensical domestic violence policies to team relocation — that pondering them can make you glum. It’s the games we crave, full of strategies, one-on-one battles, and moments of sheer athletic brilliance. The game itself serves as the nicotine hit that makes us forget all the bad stuff, even if only for the length of the contest.
So in the absence of that reprieve, without getting the chance to see J.J. Watt maul quarterbacks, Odell Beckham make absurd catches, or Marshawn Lynch do Marshawn Lynch things…well, I get grumpy.
Today is an attempt to shed that irritability as we look ahead to the new season, only three months away. This is the first edition of the offseason power rankings. A few rules before we begin.
This is not a ranking of how we think they will finish the 2017 season (though that may play a small part). This is meant to measure how well teams have improved in the offseason. That means doing things like signing free agents to fill gaps, getting coaching situations sewn up well before training camp begins, and not drafting Mitch Trubisky (sorry, Chicago).
Here’s to leaving grumpiness behind. Let’s begin, in ascending order.
32 Chicago Bears
You probably could have guessed this one. The only team in the league to sign a free agent quarterback (Mike Glennon) and then kneecap him before organized team activities begin by drafting another one, the Bears made some curious moves this offseason.
Chicago shored up its pitiful secondary a bit, but losing Alshon Jeffery means whomever wins the crap contest at QB will have even less weapons to give the ball to — if either show themselves capable of delivering it with any accuracy in the first place. The team that finished 28th in team offense last year will only get worse.
31 New York Jets
There is nothing to like here, either. Signing journeyman Josh McCown to play QB is either a move with an eye on next year’s number one draft pick or an attempt to drive Fireman Ed clinically insane. It’s certainly not an attempt to win football games.
The Jets’ terrible offensive line received only lukewarm reinforcements in Kelvin Beachum. Drafting safety Jamal Adams is perhaps the only possible thing Jets fans can like going into September.
30 Washington
Big exits at wide receiver and on the defensive side could spell doom for this Washington team that barely missed out on the playoffs last year. I’m still not sold on Kirk Cousins as a franchise QB (though Washington certainly is) and without DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon around to draw coverage, Jamison Crowder may have a tougher time racking up catches and yards. Terrelle Pryor won’t come close to filling even one pair of those shoes, either.
29 Los Angeles Rams
The Rams signed a few names (Connor Barwin being the biggest) to try to make their schizophrenic defense from 2016 more consistent. But LA’s offense, already the worst by a wide margin according to offensive DVOA in 2016, got worse with the losses of Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks. So the Jared Goff experience will continue, but with even less talent to whom the unproven QB can throw. Yikes.
Plus the Rams no longer have the serviceable Case Keenum on the depth chart should Goff implode (or run afoul of another ballplayer) in 2017. If I lived in LA and was looking for a team to back, I’d strongly consider the new boys in town before I proclaimed fealty to the Rams.
28 Los Angeles Chargers
Then again, maybe not, as the Chargers are crap too. The Chargers draftees on offensive line have potential, but not for this year, and other moves made likely won’t give Philip Rivers the protection he will need to improve on last year’s 5–11 finish. The Chargers lack of progress suggests the front office might be more concerned about the move to a new city than the team it puts on the field.
27 Cincinnati Bengals
A lot of quality exits for the Bengals, with the only additions being their draft class. Key contributors on both sides of the ball are gone — from Karlos Dansby at linebacker to Rex Burkhead at running back — making this team weaker than the one which only managed a 6–9–1 record last year. That’s bad news for the team on the field, and drafting Joe Mixon certainly won’t make for an easy autumn for the Bengals’ public relations department either.
26 Green Bay Packers
Again, this is where I point out that I don’t think the Packers will be just better than the Bengals or worse than the Colts; they are much better than that. But unfortunately they did little to make themselves better in the offseason. The cornerbacks the Packers added aren’t much better than what they already had in a weak defensive secondary, and key contributors on the offensive line defected to a division rival, Detroit.
Now, if Bill Belicheck had allowed this to happen, we would assume it was some super-secret, evil-genius sabotage job…but as it’s Mike McCarthy, it’s probably just a bad move.
25 Houston Texans
A ho-hum offseason in free agency, but the Texans may have drafted their quarterback of the future in Deshaun Watson. And depending on the performance of incumbent Tom Savage, he could quickly become the QB of this year as well.
The Texans would not fare this poorly on these rankings if not for head coach Bill O’Brien having fired his offensive coordinator to take over play calling duties himself. These arrangements are generally a bad idea. HC and OC are such big jobs, and such different jobs, each one really requires total focus by one individual. With O’Brien doing both things, something — whether on the team organization side or in the week-to-week offensive preparation — will probably fall through the cracks. Bad move.
24 Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s offseason feels like the self-satisfied lethargy we sometimes see in Super Bowl winners. This would be fine…had they finished off the Patriots in Super Bowl LI and not let Tom Brady pull off a feat of which Lazarus would be envious.
But one only needs to look at the playoff-missing post-championship years of recent New York Giants teams to know that the NFL is a league where complacency is punished quickly. If Atlanta fans have sobered up from their post-Super Bowl bender by September, their team may give them reasons to start again in earnest.
23 Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is another team that didn’t do much of note in the offseason but also didn’t really need to make any enormous moves. A few additions to the offensive line should provide some much needed protection for Russell Wilson as he looks to lead Seattle to another NFC West title.
22 Indianapolis Colts
The Colts weren’t very good in 2016, their 8–8 record more a reflection of their poor divisional opponents than team quality, and the transactional moves they made likely won’t make 2017 much better. Adding Malik Hooker through the draft is an important piece to rebuilding the defensive secondary, though with Hooker still learning the safety position on the fly he may not be ready for prime time right away.
21 Buffalo Bills
Full disclosure: I have no idea how to rate this Buffalo offseason, but it doesn’t feel right. Tyrod Taylor might be a solid NFL quarterback but it’s hard to know if he (and this Bills team, for that matter) is capable of making the playoffs. He’ll likely have to make that jump during the two-year contract he was given this offseason if he’s to remain with franchise’s quarterback into the next decade.
Their draft class is full of promise, but when evaluations of new players are full of equivocating statements like ‘player X might do this’ and ‘could do that,’ it doesn’t exactly exude confidence. If picks like Zay Jones and Tre’Davious White make good on some of their lofty possibilities, this ranking could end up being way too low.
20 Arizona Cardinals
The 2016 Cardinals defense was a shadow of its offense-strangling self of years’ past, and the loss of Tony Jefferson and Calais Campbell won’t help matters. The Cardinals did draft replacements for these two veterans, but there are plenty of holes still to address if the Cardinals are to contend with Seattle this year.
19 Cleveland Browns
The Browns offseason has a weird vibe. They had an excellent draft, starting with arguably the highest potential player in Myles Garrett, but the other moves seem more akin to a team looking to plug a few holes in their line or at wide receiver than a team in full-on rebuilding mode. This, of course, they have been, interminably, since the Truman administration. At least it feels that way.
They did nothing to address the quarterback position, which is currently a cesspool full of Cody Kessler, DeShone Kizer, Brock Osweiler, and Kevin Hogan. Oof. Expect to see all four get a shot this year after a few games of one or the other underperforming. Even the Browns’ promising draft class — the only reason I’ve rated them this high — might turn out to be terrible. They certainly have a track record of that. The good news for Browns fans this year (and every year, for the better part of the last two decades) is the NFL doesn’t have relegation.
18 Tennessee Titans
I hate this rating because I actually like what Tennessee did this offseason. They added key defensive pieces in free agency, got the exciting Adoree’ Jackson in the first round, and gambled on a wide receiver with exciting tools but who lacked pedigree in college. All of these moves are fine, but none of them jump out as something which will make Tennessee a decisively better team in 2017.
17 New York Giants
New York had a similar offseason to Tennessee with the notable exception of Brandon Marshall. The marquee wide receiver gives Eli Manning a big physical target in the passing game which the Giants have lacked in recent years. He will fill Victor Cruz’s shoes and then some.
16 Pittsburgh Steelers
Though the Steelers added weapons in the passing game, losing both DeAngelo Williams and Lawrence Timmons will hurt this team. Williams was an important change-of-pace back, keeping defenses on their toes and stopping them from stacking the middle to try to stop Pittsburgh starter Le’Veon Bell. Timmons was an important defensive force on the Steelers right side. None of their offseason acquisitions seem ready to step into the void left by these two.
15 Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens made some great acquisitions in Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson, two veteran defensive backs who will improve their secondary from day one. But the Ravens also lost a lot, including pass rusher Elvis Dumervil; Carr and Jefferson may have to get used to covering for a while.
14 Detroit Lions
The Lions improved their offensive line by dropping a couple veterans and signing better veterans. First-round pick Jarrad Davis is an excellent pick that may have to start right away in a Lions defense which desperately needs more upgrades and personnel. The Lions also failed to address the gaping hole in their backfield; unless the fragile Ameer Abdullah has a breakout year in 2017 expect to see another lopsided offense in Detroit.
13 Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys won the NFL Draft’s naming contest by taking Taco Charlton out of Michigan; the bonus is it turns out he might be a quality defensive end as well. While they added on the defensive line, the Cowboys lost veteran Doug Free on the offensive line and his likely replacement has nowhere near the same ability or experience.
A big key to Dak Prescott’s success last year was the massive quantities of time his line gave him to throw, scramble outside, or take a nap, if he felt like it. Losses on the line mean the second-year star will likely have to make some quicker decisions this season. Probably no naps, either.
12 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs didn’t lose much this offseason and addressed some problem areas, but those additions might not necessarily be solutions. Pat Mahomes, the Chiefs’ first-round pick is a case in point. Despite the prolific numbers they always put up in the college game, the skills that make quarterbacks successful at Texas Tech just don’t fare as well in the NFL. Mahomes might be a serviceable NFL quarterback someday, but they already have that in their current starter, Alex Smith. It’s hard to see much improvement this year from the Chiefs.
11 Carolina Panthers
See below.
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Same division, same offseason. Both teams needed weapons for their young quarterbacks and both went out and got them. Losing the versatile Ted Ginn hurts the Panthers, but Carolina drafted two dynamic young replacements in Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.
The Bucs, on the other hand, added veteran DeSean Jackson in free agency and drafted the terrifying O.J. Howard. The Alabama tight end who could be running over defensive backs in just a few short months.
9 Denver Broncos
The Broncos got a new coach which might lead you to question me ranking them this high, but from a personnel standpoint the Broncos hit the nail on the head. Trevor Siemian (or whoever ends up starting at quarterback) needed more protection last season, and the Broncos improved here both in free agency and through the draft. Behind the revamped line, if new signee Jamaal Charles can regain even a modicum of his earlier Kansas City-form the Broncos could have their best rushing attack since the Terrell Davis years.
8 New England Patriots
A lot of personnel changes, including losing the best name in the NFL, Barkevious Mingo, who by law is required to play linebacker with a name like that. And few of the additions, with the exception of Brandin Cooks at wide receiver, are all that eye-popping. They just feel…right. At this point we accept that whatever Bill Belicheck does is probably a smart football decision, and we won’t second guess him until he gives us a reason.
7 Minnesota Vikings
It feels weird ranking the Vikings this high after they let Adrian Peterson walk. But given the recent track record of NFL running backs, laying down big bucks for one over 30 never feels like a good idea and the Vikings probably made a prudent choice. Even better, they replaced Peterson with Latavious Murray and Dalvin Cook. Cook, in particular, will be electrifying if he can stay healthy. Failure to improve their mediocre defense is the only thing keeping them from being higher on this list.
6 San Francisco 49ers
This rating is probably a product of how bad the 49ers were last year. But the Niners did exactly what you would hope a crappy, rebuilding team would do: draft and sign a hell of a lot of players in the hope that some of them will stick. This year will still be rough, but if new head coach Kyle Shanahan can build around some of these new faces the Niners could be back to relevancy as early as 2018.
5 Jacksonville Jaguars
More turnover in Jacksonville than on most teams, but the value of the additions far outstrips the worth of those lost. New veterans on defense should improve one of the worst outfits in the league and on offense we all get to applaud the arrival of the most fun player in college football last year, Leonard Fournette.
Fournette will need to be an instant success at this level too — with Blake Bortles continuing to be mediocre and Tom Coughlin now acting in the unique role of executive vice president, you get the feeling this may be this Jaguars team’s last chance to be relevant and stave off a major overhaul.
4 Miami Dolphins
A stacked defensive seven has even more fresh faces to help the Fish try to contend with the Patriots. I have no complaints on this team or its moves, likely because I’m still willing to give Ryan Tannehill a shot at being a franchise quarterback. Those who gave up on him last year would probably rank the Dolphins much lower for not pursuing a quarterback to heat up Tannehill’s seat.
3 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles made loads of acquisitions to try to improve on their uneven performances from 2016. Offensive weapons like Alshon Jeffery and LeGarrette Blount give Carson Wentz more options, while the retinue of defensive additions should more than make up for the loss of Connor Barwin and Bennie Logan. The bigger question, of course, is will these additions be enough to challenge Dallas and New York in the NFC East? They may still be a year away from that.
2 New Orleans Saints
A raft of new offensive weapons, young and old, show the Saints aren’t ready to cash in their chips on the Drew Brees-era just yet. Adrian Peterson and Ted Ginn will both be important contributors, and Drew Brees’ penchant for spreading it around on offense will likely lend itself well to keeping Peterson’s aging body injury-free. If some of the defensive signings the Saints made pan out they could contend with the Falcons for the NFC South. Then again, if Brees returns to top form they might do that even without a defense.
1 Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were the second best team in the AFC last year with Derek Carr, but after he broke his leg in Week 16 they weren’t even able to beat the worst division winner in the playoffs. In 2017 Carr will be back at the helm and if he doesn’t lose a step neither should the Raiders.
In fact, the Raiders added great pieces on both sides of the ball. Jared Cook gives Carr another reliable passing option, and the unretired Marshawn Lynch returns to do Beast Mode things in his hometown. Should everyone — Carr especially — stay healthy, the Raiders seem poised to remain at the top for the foreseeable future. Moves like the ones made this offseason will only help them do that.
