For a manager who has endured the same cycle of near misses for the last decade, Arsene Wenger finds himself faced with a new challenge heading into the 2016–17 season.
For the first time he starts a season without a seat at the Champions League table. He no longer has to worry about a winner takes it all play-off against the likes of Udinese or Fenerbahce. Instead he must plot his way back and contend with Thursday night trips around the outer reaches of European football.
For so long Arsene Wenger has been mocked for his description of the top four being a trophy, but an immediate return to the Champions League must be his priority, another piece of fake silverware would far outweigh another FA Cup.
Arsenal have two paths ahead of them. One, prioritise the league and force their way back into the top four, ousting two rivals from a highly competitive big six. Second, put the league on hold and put all their chips on victory in Lyon on May 18. The temptation is to discard the Europa League route. It has long been an unwanted competition. The slog of the schedule, the Sunday-Thursday routine, the unglamourous destinations of the early stages. Indeed, Manchester United may have won last season’s final fairly comfortably but got there thanks to a relatively benign route through the competition, there is no guarantee that Arsenal will be as lucky.
Despite it’s status as a second tier competition the chances are still high of ending up with some awkward opponents, other European giants that have lost their way. It’s highly unwise, not to mention risky, to pin an entire season on a knockout competition.
The league is no easier to navigate. For the past few years Arsenal have neglected to match their rivals investment and improvement but snuck into the top four anyway as the likes of Tottenham, Liverpool, and Manchester United have stumbled. That Arsenal had not suffered their current predicament sooner is largely thanks to the failings of their rivals. The stagnation that runs the club and the mediocrity that typifies much of the squad finally came home to roost in May.
Having been the fifth or sixth best team in the league last year they finally finished fifth. Over the summer Arsenal have finally added a worthy striker, a Champions League-quality one at that, and Sead Kolasinac looks like plenty of broad shouldered fun but you would be pressed to argue that they had improved sufficiently to claim to be the fourth best side in the country. Instead they will again hope that others falter and that they can do just enough to step over them.
They must force their way past two of Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool. It’s not difficult to see one of them falling short of expectations — perhaps a small squad will cause Antonio Conte’s unrest to boil over, perhaps Liverpool will continue to lose 5–4 at Bournemouth, perhaps midnight will sound at Wembley and Tottenham will turn back into a pumpkin. Maybe one of those scenarios will happen, maybe. But it’s a lot to ask for two well coached, expensively assembled rivals to fall apart.
A week before the Premier League kicked off Arsene Wenger looked to have nailed his colours to the top four mast. Speaking before the Community Shield the Frenchman declared that he would prioritise the domestic campaign, while using the Europa League to blood youngsters and spread minutes around the squad.
It’s understandable, the league allows far more room for error — it can’t be derailed by away goals or a penalty shootout. Plus, any fanbase — and probably Arsenal’s more than most — loves to see the future of the team. However, Arsenal would be better served keeping their hands on both rails and not just throwing away the Europa League before it even starts. Arsenal’s squad is big enough to cope with both fronts, the Community Shield programme showed that. Olivier Giroud, Alex Iwobi, Jack Wilshere, and cameos from the likes of Reiss Nelson will likely be sufficient to get the Gunners through the group stages, likely even the first knockout round which takes place in mid-February.
By then it will be clear how Arsenal are stacking up against their rivals for the top four. By then that it may have become apparent that this Arsenal team still possesses the same flaws of Arsenal sides past. By then they may have been shorn of their two best players. By then they may have to accept that making it to Lyon and succeeding there represents their best bet of a return to the Champions League.
