Who’s going to win the 2017 Grand National?

Lets run the rule over every Grand National runner until we’re left with one — the winner.

The Grand National is the biggest event on the national hunt racing calendar. It has shaped legends of the sport and written a rich story and history that continues to be told after each annual running; from the truly incredibly Red Rum in the 1970s to the 100/1 Mon Mome in 2009. The amazing Aldantini and Bob Champion, and more recently the late Many Clouds and his guide, back-to-back winner Leighton Aspell.

The Grand National is a gruelling four and a half miles around Liverpool’s Aintree countryside, over inhumanely enormous fences. The “ultimate test of horse and rider”, it requires the bravest jockeys in the business and the most battle-harden animals to guide round the track. It’s also a complete lottery, and anyone who gives you a tip is a complete and utter spoofer. There’s 40 runners, 30 fences, four and a half miles. So much can go wrong in this eight or nine minutes of pure anarchy. If your selection is crossing the finish triumphantly, congratulations, you picked the horse who escaped the race the least unscathed — but a fearsome gambler you are not.

The Grand National has shaped decades of stats and form together to throw out a fairly educated guess at a winner, or at least allow us to narrow down the field an adequate amount to identify the true contenders. As the old saying goes, “form goes out the window” on occasions like this — despite “form” being one of my prerequisites for a Grand National winner. My point is, it’s hard to tip a winner in this race — so using this baseless, completely unscientific approach, we’re going to consider all 40 of this year’s field and try and narrow it down until we have the winner.

Age — The winner has to be older than 7 and younger than 12

This is the easiest prerequisite to start and each year is the most reliable base-point to either select a winner or avoid a loser. One of the entry requirements for the race are horses that are 7-years-old and above. However, no 7-year-old has placed in over forty runnings of the race. So taking that into consideration, immediately we can chalk off Shantou Flyer (66/1), Le Mercurey (50/1) and Double Shuffle (40/1) and not feel too bad about it.

Old horses don’t have the best of records either. There are no 13-year-olds in the race, but to try and narrow down the field some more I’m going to lower the maximum age of our winner to 11, considering only one 12-year-old has won the race in the past 16 years, so say goodbye to Bless the Wings (66/1) and Raz De Maree (40/1), two more rank outsiders.

Weight — The winner has to be carrying less than 11–5

With four miles of gruelling terrain and mammoth fences to navigate, the less weight the horse is carrying the better. The principle behind a handicap race is that the horse carries a weight that belies that horse’s ability shown in previous races. The better a performance from a horse then the higher the handicap mark that horse will be given. This applies the opposite way to poor performances of horses, to try and even the field.

Only three horses have won carrying more than 11st 5lbs in the past 35 years. So we’re going to rule out the only horses above this weight, and two of the front runners: the 11–10 weight of The Last Samuri (16/1) and 11–6 of JP McManus’ More Of That (12/1).

Form — The winner has to have won over 3 miles before

Form is key for any race, even the Grand National, despite it being a bit of a shot-in-the-dark kind of race. Generally a horse that has cut the mustard in the past comes to the fore. The last ten winners have won over at least three miles or placed over three miles and a quarter in a previous race, however I’m going to be extra thorough and rule out all horses that have never won a race over 3 miles.

Say goodbye to Ucello Conti (16/1), a popular selection going into the race, as well as Stellar Notion (50/1), Ballynagour (66/1) and Cocktails at Dawn (80/1).

Experience — The winner has to have ran over fences at least 8 times, but less than 14 times

In addition to form, experience is key, especially over these mighty fences. The last ten winners had at least eight runs to their name. Those with less than eight runs are getting culled — Pleasant Company (16/1) only has six and Measureofmydreams (50/1) has seven runs over fences on his card. The former is Willie Mullins’ and Ruby Walsh’s charge and has a 50% strike rate in chasing, but that’s only from six runs.

Seven of the last ten winners had run between 10 and 14 times over fences, so to help speed up the cutting I’m also going to rule out horses that have jumped 14 or more times over the big ditches in their careers: Cheltenham hero Cause of Causes (14/1), Rogue Angel (25/1), Highland Lodge (25/1), Saint Are (33/1), Thunder & Roses (33/1), Just A Par (33/1), Bishops Road (40/1), Tenor Nivernais (40/1), Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1), Wonderful Charm (40/1), Gas Line Boy (50/1), Lord Windermere (50/1), Perfect Candidate (66/1), Goodtoknow (66/1) and Viva Steve (66/1). A lot of good horses gone here, Saint Are in particular is attracting some focus this week.

Season Preparation — The winner has to have had great preparation coming into the race

The Grand National is a unique race. Usually, a horse’s season is shaped around this race, which means a not too hectic schedule in the run up to the April meeting. So I’m going to ignore horses that have ran five or more times this season — good luck and thanks to the current favourite Definitly Red (11/1), Saphir Du Rheu (20/1), Doctor Harper (40/1), Roi Des Francs (66/1), Regal Encore (66/1), Sambremont (66/1) and La Vaticane (100/1).

In addition to busy schedules, horses entering the race with only one run under their saddle is not the most ideal preparation either — Drop Out Joe (50/1) is gone. Knock House (50/1) has had two runs but one was over hurdles, so we can rule him out too.

O Faoilains Boy (66/1) has been pulled up in both his starts. What kind of preparation is that? Gone. Wounded Warrior (66/1) is another who’s season so far has been patchy, and he doesn’t look at all like staying the distance. You’re out!

And then there were five: Vieux Lion Rouge, Vicente, The Young Master, One For Arthur and Blaklion. All high on the betting, all ticking the right boxes, so to separate these we’ll have to consider two important factors…

Trainer & Jockey — The winner must have a strong trainer and jockey combination

Paul Nicholl’s charge Vicente (25/1) is perhaps his best shot at regaining victory for the first time since Neptune Collonges in 2012, given the 8-year-old’s long distance repertoire. He’s jockeyed by 29-year-old Brian Hughes, who is 0–5 in Grand Nationals. Vicente has failed to light the racecourse alight this year, and although he retains the same mark that won him the Scottish Grand National last year, it doesn’t look like he’s in the form to compete this year. I’m not expecting Brian Hughes to steer Vicente to victory but is a nice each-way shout.

One For Arthur (14/1) is a horse in good form, is well weighted and has the ability to uphold the trip. He’s a tough one to rule out, but given it’s Derek Fox’s first trip around the Grand National course and Lucinda Russell has only trained three Grand National runs, I’m sadly going to rule him out for inexperience alone. But don’t be surprised at all if he’s in the reckoning coming over the penultimate fence — he ticks a lot of the favourable boxes.

Neil Mulholland’s The Young Master (20/1) has pedigree, winning the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last year. He’s boarded by the experienced Sam Waley-Cohen, who has six wins over Grand National fences but the big one has so far eluded him. But the Master’s fall in the Becher Chase back in December over these fences suggests he may find it difficult in the more hectic race. For this doubt, even with a rider as good as Waley-Cohen on board, I’m going to rule him out.

With terrific form going into Saturday, Vieux Lion Rouge (11/1) should perhaps warrant favouritism come race time at 5:15pm on Saturday evening. He won the aforementioned Becher Chase as well as the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. He will value last year’s run as a 7-year-old, and has an experienced head on board in Tom Scudamore. He even has a trainer with serious Grand National pedigree in David Pipe, who saddled 2008 winner Comply Or Die.

Blaklion (14/1), on the other hand, is a 2016 Cheltenham winner who goes into the race trailing Vieux Lion Rouge in the Grand National Trial. He’s saddled by a two time winner, Nigel Twiston-Davies, who tasted triumph with Earth Summit in 1998 and Bindaree in 2002. With so little to separate our final two charges, Blaklion’s big festival experience will surely stand to him and his jockey Noel Fehily is coming into the race off the back of a career defining Cheltenham festival, including winning the Champion Hurdle aboard Buveir D’Air in the absence of Barry Geraghty. Fehily has gotten this ride due to injury to Blaklion’s usual parter in crime Ryan Hatch — so the stars may be about to align once again for Fehily.

All the boxes are ticked for both Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion. We’ve ruled out the rest of the field because they didn’t adequately suit the Grand National form-book, which suggests we’ve the two king pieces left on the board. I’m backing Blaklion to overturn his loss to Vieux Lion Rouge at Haydock and win an amazing Cheltenham and Aintree double in consecutive years. It’s impossible to begrudge the wily Noel Fehily a Grand National win, while trainer Twiston-Davies will have him in peak form on Saturday evening.

BLAKLION is your 2017 Grand National winner.