Leadership in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous World
Ali Russell-Brookes is a Royal Air Force Officer and student on the Advanced Command and Staff Course. She is studying for a Masters by Research with King’s College London, examining the implications on leadership for the Future Force.
Regardless of your employment sector or line of business, you’ll probably find two of your most taxing leadership challenges are exactly the same as those faced by leaders across the globe; the uncertain business or operating environment and the generational shift in the workforce. It’s not that our lines of work are converging ; far from it — the world of work continues to diversify as technology and consumer demands take us in ever-wider circles. But the uncertain environments in which we work and the generationally diverse people with whom we share our work places have remarkable commonalities that provide the same problem-set to test our skills as leaders.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, business has become all too familiar with the VUCA environment. Borrowed from military parlance, VUCA describes the volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous characteristics that represent the chaotic and unpredictable commercial environment. Whilst the UK military appear to have moved away from using the term, the defence and security sphere continues to grow ever more unpredictable and unstable. Resurgent Russia, aspirant China, campaigns of deliberate mis-information, increasingly capable malicious non-state actors, and cyber warfare are blurring the lines of conflict and international law and order. So, whilst the term may have fallen out of the policy lexicon, let’s be under no illusion — this is VUCA writ large. Could it be, therefore, that just as business borrowed the term from the military, the military can borrow the leadership strategies developed by business to address their own VUCA challenges?
Business literature reveals four models¹ specifically devised to address the challenges of leadership in VUCA environments. By amalgamating duplicated characteristics, these four models can be rationalised into a single framework of five VUCA leadership traits: vision, agility, clarity, curiosity and engagement. But these alone cannot be considered a comprehensive model for leaders. They deal with process, structure and cognition; the thinking, foresight and curiosity to see emerging threats and opportunities; and the flexibility and rapid decision-making needed to adapt to them. But they fail to address the single greatest aspect of leadership — the human element and the interaction with people to develop, inspire, and motivate them to achieve the desired organisational end-state.
Consideration of the relational aspects brings into play a second common leadership challenge that all leaders face; the issue of generational shift and generational diversity in the workplace. The phenomenon only came to prominence in the late 1990s as individuals from Generation Y reached employment age and, for the first time, organizations found their workforces comprising four generations of employees. Each generation brings with it its own set of attitudes, priorities and expectations, which do not necessarily fit with the value systems of other generational cohorts. These behaviours and motivations shape the way people chose to lead and the way they wish to be led, which in turn affects the dynamics of the workforce. This is especially the case if there is a mis-match between the values and priorities of the organisation, its senior leaders and its employees, with friction between the parties quickly eroding relationships and efficiency. It is therefore essential to seek common ground between the generations in developing structures and work culture that supports the aspirations and values of all stakeholders. This is particularly pertinent today as we are experiencing a second significant generational shift with the young people of Generation Z joining the workforce in ever increasing numbers. To exacerbate this shift further, the youngest of the Baby Boomers are now approaching retirement age and will soon disappear completely from the workforce landscape. For the business and commercial sector, this translates to a retirement window from 2025 to 2035. However, for the military and other organisations who have retirement dates under the state pension age, this change is more immediate. Projections suggest only three-percent of the Royal Air Force officer cadre will be from the Baby Boomer generation in 2020, with the last of them retiring before 2025.
Analysis of generational cohort studies reveals there is no single leadership methodology that appeals to all generations. But by extracting key generational preferences, characteristics and traits from research, a consolidated list of elements necessary for a single, cross-generational leadership philosophy can be derived. Elements such as team-working, knowledge-sharing, collaborative working and challenging convention fit into the previously highlighted VUCA traits of engagement and curiosity. The remaining traits are all considered to contribute to the creation of psychological safety in the workplace, which is essential for setting set the conditions in which respectful, tolerant working can flourish in a culture of continuous learning and reasonable challenge. These qualities can be grouped into the three traits of trust, diversity and authenticity.
By expanding the five VUCA traits and three generational diversity traits, a model for future leadership can be proposed. The framework provides the eight over-arching traits, each accompanied by a short description of the trait’s main characteristics and four constituent attributes that together form the main trait:
- Vision. Vision is the foresight, definition and articulation of long-term values, goals and objectives. Visionary leaders identify a unifying purpose to motivate and inspire the workforce to achieve a common end-state via flexible options and varied routes.
Vision: foresight, inspirational, employs Mission Command, unifying - Agility. Agility is adaptability at pace. Agile leaders apply focussed, fast and flexible changes to working practices and structures in response to emerging threats or opportunities.
Agility: adaptable, flexible, identifies and manages risk, rapid decision-making - Clarity. Clarity is the complete situational and contextual understanding required for informed decision-making. Leaders with clarity seek diverse perspectives, question assumptions and horizon-scan to identify changes to accepted wisdom.
Clarity: situationally astute, contextually aware, analytical, challenges assumptions - Curiosity. Curiosity is the active pursuit of change through experimentation, innovation and challenge. Curious leaders question the status-quo and seek diversity of thought to provide new insights and solutions to both legacy and emerging problems.
Curiosity: embraces change, innovative, creative, problem-solver - Engagement. Engagement is the collaborative interaction and effective communication within teams and across multi-disciplinary networks. Engaged leaders share knowledge, issues and lessons identified to enhance organisational learning and problem-solving.
Engagement: collaborative, knowledge-sharing, good communicator, influential - Trust. Trust is developed by creating psychological safety. Trusted leaders uphold high moral standards, respecting and valuing people in a supportive environment and allowing them to challenge norms or make mistakes without fear of failure or ridicule.
Trust: humble, integrity, supportive, honest - Diversity. Diversity is the establishment of a respectful, tolerant and inclusive working environment. Leaders of diversity appreciate the value each person brings as a leader, team-player and individual, motivating and developing them to reach their potential.
Diversity: respectful, tolerant, empowering, coach/mentor - Authenticity. Authenticity is the expression of one’s own true beliefs. Authentic leaders understand and acknowledge their strengths, weaknesses, motivations and limitations, and act in accordance with those factors with fairness, transparency and moral courage.
Authenticity: self-aware, morally courageous, fair, transparent
It’s true leadership models don’t guarantee success or instantly create great leaders, and I’m certainly not professing this framework to be the silver bullet that solves the world’s leadership woes. But, as leaders continue to wrestle with the turbulence and confusion of VUCA environments and the frictions of generational shift, this model could provide a handrail to help develop flexible and responsive organisations with the collaborative and innovative spirt to navigate the path of uncertainty. But perhaps most importantly it highlights the criticality of engendering psychological safety in the workplace and developing inclusive, respectful and supportive environments where every individual feels valued and empowered to embrace change and challenge conventional thinking. Whilst no model can guarantee success, this framework does address the most prevalent issues affecting contemporary leadership and provides a concise reminder of the most important aspects of leadership for generationally diverse organisations in the VUCA world.
[1] Neubauer, Tarling and Wade, Redefining Leadership for a Digital Age, 2017; Johansen, Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World, 2012; Hinssen. The Network Always Wins: How to Survive in the Age of Uncertainty, 2014; George, A Strategy for Strong Leadership in an unsteady world, 2017.
