What role should the UK play in great power competition in Africa in the twenty-first century?
The UK’s global influence is waning. Instead of attaining the Prime Minister’s vision, laid out in the UK’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, of being “one of the most influential countries in the world” (6) by 2030, the UK risks international mediocrity. The nation’s limited resources, demonstrated by the vast cut in its overseas aid budget, and outdated mindset to dealing with international partners, particularly in Africa, are just two factors that will undermine the UK government’s goal of playing an active role in sustaining an international order (6) that suits the UK and its allies. The UK’s influence has been fading in Africa perhaps faster than anywhere in recent years, as multiple nations, from competitors such as Russia and China, to European allies, have increased access and influence, while the UK has become increasingly insignificant. There is an emerging view that Africa is becoming one of the key areas of great power competition in the twenty-first century. In this context, the UK will be presented with an opportunity to re-shape its approach to the continent and set a blueprint for it to become a more attractive partner in an increasingly fragmented world. In so doing, Global Britain must actively decide whether it should compete with great power competitors in Africa and, if so, how.
The UK’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (70) makes clear the government’s view that great power competition is increasing and is a factor in the “deterioration of the security environment and the weakening of the international order.” While ‘great power competition’ is mentioned twice, ‘competition’ appears on fifty-two occasions in the document, with ‘systemic competition’ being a running theme and one of the four overarching trends which it identifies as being particularly important to the UK and the changing international order. The language of international competition runs throughout the document and demonstrates the UK government’s expectation that the country “must be prepared to compete with others” as part of its long-term approach to 2030. The language of competition, and great power competition in particular, has started to emerge in United States policy documents (27) in recent years also.
Western powers are preparing to face the growing challenge to their preferred rules based international system from what the United States terms as revisionist powers, such as China and Russia. The UK must decide what role it wants to play and how, in the post-BREXIT era, it will manage its international relationships as it tries to reposition itself on the world stage. With pressure on resources, a non-discretionary task of remaining committed to Euro-Atlantic security and a desire to become “deeply engaged” (6) in the Indo-Pacific, the UK is at risk of overlooking the continent which may become the primary locus of great power competition in the twenty-first century: Africa.
Despite the rapid growth of China in recent years, the United States remains the only global great power. However, China’s influence in Africa has grown to such an extent that it could also be considered a great power on the continent. The Wilson Center highlights a great power competition between the United States and China to “shape security architectures, as well as norms and practices worldwide, including trade and investment regimes and the development and regulation of new technological infrastructures.” China is well positioned for this competition in Africa. Dr Nicholas Westcott, Director of the Royal African Society [1], has highlighted that the European Union, also, has tremendous influence in terms of trade and aid across the continent and could be considered a ‘quasi-great power’ but, despite its deployment of European Union training missions and its funding of the African Union Mission in Somalia, it lacks the level of hard power of some other actors to be able to capitalise on its influence. Competition is underway in Africa and senior individuals within United States AFRICOM believe that the continent is emerging as one of the most important areas of what they term ‘global power competition’ in the twenty-first century [2]. If the UK is to achieve its aim of being “one of the most influential countries in the world”, it must be clear about how it fits into this competition.
Aside from the United States, China and the European Union, there are multiple nations with active and varied interests on the continent. They range from allies, including France, Germany and Canada, to nations including India, and Turkey, through to adversaries and hostile state actors such as Russia and Iran. It is with nations such as these that the UK must find the right balance between collaboration and competition, in order to be able to grow its influence on the continent. Competing effectively in this space is, arguably, where it will have the greatest overall effect, including in the competition between great powers.
Important for developing future UK policy and strategy, should be the recognition that competition with allies for influence with African partners should be acknowledged and planned for as much as that with adversaries. In order to compete, at all, however, the UK must change its approach to its engagements in Africa. The UK has a considerable amount of residual soft power on the continent, but its influence in recent years has been fading and without concerted attempts to reverse the trend, it could decline further. At the centre of the UK’s approach to competing for influence in Africa should be the aim to create genuine partnerships with African governments. For decades, the international community has been patronising in its approach to Africa; a trend which, unlike some countries, the UK is yet to reverse. Seeking alignment with, rather than making demands of, African governments is the route to building those partnerships. African governments recognise that international partners will pursue national interests through their bilateral relationships but those international partners that fail to recognise that African governments must also pursue their own interests will quickly lose access and influence. One of the enduring themes of international competition in Africa has been the struggle to gain the support of African governments in international fora. In recent years, Russia and China have made progress in influencing certain African states to change their voting patterns, seeing them abstaining in votes at the UN rather than voting with the UK and its Western allies. Any further shift, that sees such nations voting with Russia and China, would be a significant blow for the UK.
In the wake of the significant cut in the UK’s Official Development Assistance, which risks drastically undermining our relationships with African partners, the personal investment of UK politicians and officials will be required to demonstrate the UK’s commitment to the continent. Telephone calls with African counterparts, and visits to the continent, can be of real value and should become a more regular element of the UK’s engagement, from senior officials and military officers up to senior politicians. To capitalise on the relationships that the UK should seek to build, a thorough understanding of the landscape of competition is necessary, which includes not only understanding competitors’ government activity but also that which is conducted through intermediaries; this is an area that the UK should exploit more in future. Doing so will provide the basis for assessing the nature of competition in each country in which the UK aims to build influence, thereby allowing a comprehensive assessment of what the UK’s comparative advantages may be. The UK cannot compete with China, for example, in the building of national infrastructure but there will be niche areas where the UK can make valuable offers that differentiates it from the competition, be that China or others. Clearly defining objectives, understanding the landscape, the specific nature of the competition and what the UK’s comparative advantage is, is a suitable approach for competing with Western allies as well as adversaries. Importantly, doing so with the objective of finding alignment with African partners, seeking a more equal relationship, will underpin the value of any offer made and enhance its likelihood of success. As African agency grows alongside the continent’s increasing influence in global affairs, African governments will be unlikely to support external actors engaging in competition for its own sake; their overarching aim will be their national interests.
If the UK aims to be influential in an increasingly multipolar world, in which great power competition is focusing the minds of policymakers, it must navigate the landscape of great power competition in Africa in the twenty-first century. Underscored by the aim of building more equal partnerships with African governments, there are numerous ways in which the UK can compete, with peers and great powers alike. Approached correctly, doing so will help the UK government reach its goal of becoming “one of the most influential countries in the world” by 2030.
[1] Director Royal African Society, interview with author, February 18, 2021.
[2] United States Africa Command Director of Operations, interview with author, March 24, 2021.
Wing Commander Jack Holt is a Royal Air Force Logistics officer with extensive professional experience in sub-Saharan Africa.
This BLOG is an academic study conducted as part of the KCL Master by Research programme on the Advanced Command and Staff Course at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom. The views expressed are those of the author; they do not constitute the opinion of, or a representation by the Royal Air Force or the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom.
