2018 NBA Mock Draft 1.0
Duke finally lost, which means the college basketball season has finally begun. Let’s talk about the only thing that matters in college basketball: the players that’ll comprise next year’s draft.
Standard Tankathon simulation and let’s get started with just the lottery at this point. Yes, yes, I know, at this point, without the actual lottery, it’s stupid to do a mock draft. But I hate big boards because the NBA draft is as much about fit as it is about talent.
All records below have been recorded on the morning of December 13.
1. Memphis Grizzlies (8–19)
Team Strengths: Two top 30 players, viable sixth man in Tyreke Evans
Team Needs: No depth whatsoever
Pick: Marvin Bagley (Duke)
Best Case Scenario: Chris Bosh with a handle and that 2K Tenacious Rebounder badge
Worst Case Scenario: Rich man’s Skal Labissiere
I won’t lie, Bagley’s the one college prospect I’ve seen the most of, so I’m slightly biased. What steps out foremost is his second jump, which allows him to sky for offensive rebounds and easy put backs. He has incredible footwork, lateral quickness, and handles for an athlete so rangy. He can make a three-pointer. Those tools give him the highest ceiling in this draft, and that’s exactly what you take when there isn’t a consensus number one pick.
Bagley’s an intriguing fit for the Grizzlies, should they pair him with the aging Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. Given Gasol’s shooting isn’t a mirage (it’s not) and Bagley’s shooting and perimeter skills progress (they should), there’s a conceivable rotation there for the Grizzlies that involves only five-out offensive lineups with stellar defense and switchability.
But the Grizzlies should do whatever they can to trade away Conley and Gasol for more picks, be it in this year’s draft or next year’s or both. Maybe there’s a Conley/Gasol package for Cleveland’s salary dumps and the Brooklyn pick. Maybe the Clippers want Conley and Gasol to pair with Griffin and are willing to send over their late lottery pick and DeAndre Jordan. Creating a new core centered around Bagley is the way to go, not wither away both Conley’s and Gasol’s late primes and Bagley’s youth days on a team that struggles to stay in the top ten of their conference.
2. Sacramento Kings (9–18)
Team Strengths: Interior depth
Team Needs: Wings, shooting bigs
Pick: Luka Doncic
Best Case Scenario: A better shooting, less athletic, more playmaking Tracy McGrady
Worst Case Scenario: A better playmaking Evan Fournier
This is a no-brainer. I don’t see why the Kings would want Ayton or Porter Jr. or Bamba. Doncic is a plug-and-play lead ball handler who can shoot and create for teammates. In a wing-dominant league, he’s the pick. But what’s even more interesting is that Doncic has the ability to play off-ball and be a secondary creator, much like how Saric is for the Sixers. Imagine Fox-Skal pick-and-roll or pops spaced around Bogdanovic, Doncic, and Justin Jackson (or insert a combo forward here who can guard fours). That should be a lethal offense.
On the darker side, if Fox doesn’t quite pan out and is basically Elfrid Payton, Doncic can take over as the primary creator should the Kings move away from Payton.
Here’s where things start to get interesting. The Bulls have to decide between DeAndre Ayton, a big man who theoretically should be a unicorn but can’t quite figure out and maybe doesn’t like playing defense and Michael Porter, Jr., a wing who we literally know nothing about.
3. Chicago Bulls (6–20)
Team Strengths: I guess they have some young guards?
Team Needs: Everything
Pick: DeAndre Ayton
Best Case Scenario: What Greg Oden was supposed to be with a jump shot
Worst Case Scenario: Lorenzen Wright
DeAndre Ayton’s supposed to be a rim-running and protecting monster who can sometimes pop out for a quick three. If that’s what you’re getting, then that’s instantly one of the best types of bigs you can pair with thhe host of quick guards the Bulls have. If he’s guarding pick-and-rolls with purpose like he was in the Arizona Red v. Blue scrimmage (cue eye roll), then this is a no-brainer.
But in that recent three game skid in that ballroom down in the Bahamas, Ayton was routinely sluggish on defense, which was one of the reasons teams like N.C. State, SMU, and Purdue were able to run roughshod on them. Ayton’s going to improve and if he can be a defensive monster, his offense will propel him to top five center status.
4. Atlanta Hawks (6–21)
Team Strengths: Energy wings
Team Needs: Go-to scorer, big man shooting
Pick: Michael Porter, Jr.
Best Case Scenario: Paul George
Worst Case Scenario: Jeff Green
I’m pretty clueless about Porter. He’s supposed to be a springy athlete with a feathery touch from midrange. If he can come back anew from his season-ending surgery, his range continues to extends, and he’s passable on defense, the Hawks might have a franchise cornerstone who can play alongside Collins at small forward and possibly slide in as a four next to Collins as a power forward.
5. Dallas Mavericks (8–20)
Team Strengths: Intriguing, modable point guard
Team Needs: Wing depth, interior depth
Pick: Mo Bamba
Best Case Scenario: What Nerlens Noel should be right now
Worst Case Scenario: What Nerlens Noel probably is right now
Don’t hold DeAndre Jordan hostage. Just draft Bamba and develop him to run continuous pick-and-roll with Dennis Smith, Jr. It could make sense too, especially if they play Barnes exclusively at the four with Seth Curry and another three point shooter at the other wing spot. It’s the makings of a modern offense with great athletes.
Now, it gets weird. No player, other than probably Bagley and Ayton, will have plug-and-play ability for a team fighting for the playoffs. The Grizzlies should probably try to trade away Conley and Gasol and commit fully to the tank. The other sneaky move would be to trade Gasol for whatever they can get, keep Conley, and build around their $30 million man. If I were Chris Wallace, I’d entertain every single future asset haul for Conley and Gasol and build anew.
6. Phoenix Suns (9–20)
Team Strengths: A conceivable go-to scorer
Team Needs: A complementary point guard, rim-running centers
Pick: Collin Sexton
Best Case Scenario: Eric Bledsoe with a consistent jumpshot
Worst Case Scenario: Elfrid Payton
I should probably stop comping the floors of young point guards to Elfrid Payton, but it makes sense for Sexton. He’s a high energy, uber-athletic point guard who can control an offense and hit open shots and lead a team. We saw that in that 3-on-5 comeback against Minnesota. But his shot’s iffy still, in my opinion.
Take a look at that slow-mo shot. He takes his shot across his body a little and that split second lag is going to make it easier for NBA level athletes to contest. Shot hitches are usually corrected though; that’s not the issue with this fit.
Devin Booker needs a Patrick Beverly-type point guard to flourish on offense and defense: essentially a small wing who can guard point guards. Collin Sexton is not a wing, he’s a floor general.
Phoenix needs a point guard though. Tyler Ulis and Mike James are not going to cut it moving forward; they’re too small and too easily manipulating on defense to work alongside Booker. Bledsoe and Booker actually worked when they played with enough space and gravity towards the hoop, in lineups that featured T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler, and Jared Dudley. If Booker can adjust his game and play a little more off-ball and minutes are staggered to maximize both these young guards, this could just work. Sexton, Booker, and Jackson is a dog of a core.
7. Philadelphia 76ers via L.A. Lakers (14–13)
Team Strengths: Amazing youth talent, great size around the court
Team Needs: Shooting
Pick: Kevin Knox
Best Case Scenario: Paul George without the playmaking ability
Worst Case Scenario: Otto Porter
This draft is sneaky deep. One of the important things to mention about the NBA recently is that player development has actually been remarkably good. Here’s a quick list of players who’ve developed their skills massively after entering the league, just off the top of my head: Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Donovan Mitchell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Rudy Gobert. The list goes on of players who’re a lot better than their expected value. This draft has a lot of intriguing bodies and athletes with interesting enough skills for me to believe that this draft could be quite deep.
Kevin Knox is the sleeper in this draft. He has a long, wiry frame that can handle a muscle growth coupled with agility you just don’t see in wings his size. He’s feathery when he moves around the court, and for a guy his size and age, his ball skills are at a point that could develop. Basically, Knox’s floor, given a normal development curve, is probably what Otto Porter was doing a couple years ago, a solid 12 points a game on 37% three point shooting.
But that’s a worst case scenario, I think. Take a look at that stroke. Knox comes of a baby curl and pulls up from three. He drains the shot, but that’s not what I’m interested in. It’s how quick his release is.
Imagine if we stick an Otto Porter type onto the Sixers roster instead of Redick. Philly’s already flirting with a lineup of 6'10" Ben Simmons, 6'9" Robert Covington, 6'10" Saric, 6'11" Richaun Holmes, and 7'2" Joel Embiid. That may be a shooting limited team. Now what if we slot in a 6'9" (or maybe 6'10" if he grows) Kevin Knox who can drill threes and attack close outs and guard twos and threes consistently instead of Richaun Holmes? I’m getting goosebumps.
8. Charlotte Hornets (10–16)
Team Strengths: A top ten point guard, a top six coach
Team Needs: Athletes who can shoot
Pick: Jaren Jackson
Best Case Scenario: 2013–14 Serge Ibaka
Worst Case Scenario: 2015–16 Serge Ibaka
Jaren Jackson will be good on defense. Let me rephrase that. He should be good on defense. Let me rephrase that once again. He’ll block a lot of shots and he’ll grab rebounds. He has the NBA frame already.
It’s just a matter of whether he can drill a couple threes a game and become a stretch five. If he can, he can be a great and unique starting center. If he can’t, he’ll still be playable guy, just nothing too special. Right now, Jackson is drilling 28% of his 2.8 three point attempts. That’s definitely not good enough to stand out in the lottery, especially in comparison to Ayton and Bagley with their varied offensive games.
The Hornets have a host of big men, but none of them have the potential skill set of Jaren Jackson — rim-protecting and stretchy. Zeller’s a great screener and roll man, Dwight Howard is having somewhat of a Renaissance as a rebounding and finishing big, Kaminsky is an inefficient stretch five, and Marvin Williams is an aging stretch four in a league where most fours are stretching the floor. It may be time to give up on one of Kaminsky or Zeller (I say Kaminsky) and develop another big to carry the torch after Howard’s contract is up.
9. Orlando Magic (11–17)
Team Strengths: Versatile forwards
Team Needs: A modern point guard, wing depth
Pick: Mikal Bridges
Best Case Scenario: A better defending Khris Middleton
Worst Case Scenario: Otto Porter
Villanova has broken my heart, but Mikal Bridges is helping mend it back together. (Last year’s championship didn’t hurt.) Cleveland should be hoping and praying that if they keep the Nets pick that Bridges falls to them. He’s as plug and play as possible. He’s a rangy athlete at 6'6" with a 7'0" wingspan, which puts him in the range of special three-and-D body types. But unlike most college players who project as three-and-D players, he’s already a great defender and a great shooter, 18.1 points on 54.8/48.1/80.6 splits on more than five point attempts a game. Those aren’t fluky numbers.
True, he doesn’t create a lot of his shots, he’s not a particularly proficient creator for his teammates (10.0% assist rate). But he knows how to play NBA level defense (albeit against Nicholls State):
And he’s a monster athlete:
A wing/forward trio of Bridges, Isaac, and Gordon will be scary defensively. Pair them with a viable point guard (if one’s available) and we could finally be getting somewhere.
10. Los Angeles Clippers (10–15)
Team Strengths: Blake Griffin (maybe), DeAndre Jordan as a trade chip
Team Needs: Anything they can get
Pick: Miles Bridges
Best Case Scenario: Carmelo Anthony
Worst Case Scenario: Jabari Parker right now
The Clippers should be doing whatever they can to deal DeAndre Jordan and Patrick Beverly’s contract and Blake and Doc and Steve Ballmer for picks and more picks. Let Austin Rivers shoot his way up the lottery standings and find a way to get a foundational piece. If they keep eking out wins, they’ll be stuck drafting a player who projects as a role player.
If they end up in the middle of the lottery, they need to take the player with the highest upside. Enter Miles Bridges, the “tweener” with the leaping ability of a Blake Griffin one knee injury in and the shooting touch of, well, Blake Griffin of now. Bridges should have come out last year, in my opinion. It’s been purported to be honorable to stick to your college and be loyal to your coach. But his draft stock has been affected. In some mock drafts before he reupped with the Spartans, he climbed all the way up to the top five.
He’s being played out of position because of Michigan State’s immense size, especially because Bridges’s optimal position is a stretch four, much like Harrison Barnes. He’s bullishly strong and he’s an adequate perimeter defender and rebounder. But adequate at this level is concerning.
I really like Harrison Barnes as a next level comp for Bridges, especially since they both probably stayed in college a year too long and played on stacked front courts. But is Harrison Barnes fully realized (18 or 19 points a game on 48% effective field goal percentage and nearly 25% usage) really a building block? I don’t think so. That may not even be Barnes fully realized.
If this were a pick for the Chris Paul Clippers, Bridges would be perfect as an awkward fitting starting three and a closing four. But on this piecemeal team, I’m not sold at all.
11. Cleveland Cavaliers (20–8)
Team Strengths: LeBron James
Team Needs: Three-and-D wings
Pick: Gary Trent Jr.
Best Case Scenario: Devin Booker
Worst Case Scenario: J.R. Smith
Gary Trent, Jr. worries me. He has flashes of scoring explosion, like his game at Boston College where he drilled 6 out of 13 three pointers. But on the year, he’s shooting 35.6% on his six three point attempts a game. As someone who was touted as a lethal three point shooter on a team with two bigs and a senior shooting guard who all dictate major attention, he should be drilling his open threes at nearly 40%. True, it’s small sample size, but he hasn’t shown much more than spot up ability and minimal bounce on the attack of the close out.
He’s not a playmaker (but he’s not supposed to be), he’s a defensive sieve, and he’s not a particularly good finisher. All that being said, I still think he’s a top three shooter in this draft class and playing alongside LeBron James back in Ohio would probably juice him up. (That’s a cliche that I don’t believe. Outside of LeBron, no one really is excited to play in Cleveland.) He can be plug and play as just a shooter his first couple of year as he starts to develop. And that could be all Cleveland needs.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (12–14)
Team Strengths: Defensive fundamentals, great starting talent
Team Needs: Depth of any kind
Pick: Lonnie Walker
Best Case Scenario: Lance Stephenson, self-actualized
Worst Case Scenario: Lance Stephenson, self-immolating
Lonnie Walker is the other sleeper in the draft. He’s an athletic guard who plays defense and likes to attack the basket. He has a solid three point stroke, and he has some play creation ability. But I don’t trust the jump shot quite yet, especially with his small sample size 71.4% free throw shooting.
That all being said, Lonnie Walker does not want to be drafted to Oklahoma City to play second fiddle to Russell Westbrook in post-Paul George and Carmelo Anthony hellscape that is Chesapeake Energy Arena. He’ll be relegated to corner threes and ugly attacks of closeouts and he’ll have to switch onto point guards when Russell Westbrook invariably decides to gamble on steals. Please, OKC, make the damn playoffs so that Lonnie Walker can have a Donovan Mitchell-esque rookie year. Hell… maybe the Jazz will falter and Walker will end up there and create a Mitchell-Walker-Gobert combo that is going to be interesting to watch.
13. Phoenix Suns via Miami Heat (13–13)
Team Strengths: See above
Team Needs: See above
Pick: Robert Williams
Best Case Scenario: Clint Capela
Worst Case Scenario: Tyrus Thomas
Robert Williams was one of those dark-horse candidates in last year’s draft because of his springiness and defensive potential. But guess what, he hasn’t improved one bit. He’s a tenacious rebounder (22.3% total rebound rate), he blocks a lot of shots (10.6% block rate), and he’s a pretty good finisher. But that is literally all he does. Maybe that’s all he’ll need to do though if he’s playing next to Dragan Bender, given the Croatian prospect improves.
Robert Williams needs a stretch five so that he can play de-facto center on offense and still play mostly a help defense role on defense, where he’s most suited to use his leaping ability. Bender affords him that.
14. New York Knicks (14–13)
Team Strengths: Kristaps Porzingis
Team Needs: A fucking point guard
Pick: Trevon Duval
Best Case Scenario: Russell Westbrook
Worst Case Scenario: Elfrid Payton
I like Duval. Let me preface this all with that. He’s super quick, super confident, and he’s a very willing passer. As a pick-and-roll partner for Kristaps, he fits much better than Ntilikina, who’s best used as a secondary playmaker and spot-up shooter. Duval has a gigantic wingspan for a point guard, which probably helps project him as a good perimeter defender on the next level.
But all I see is Russell Westbrook minus the sheer athleticism and vigor. And Russell Westbrook without that isn’t a particularly useful player. Duval, too often, speeds up past his teammates and tries to finish awkward looking drives. When he does manage to sneak a finger roll in, it’s a thing of beauty. But when he doesn’t, it’s ugly. He’s shooting 15.2% from three on almost three attempts a game. It’s admirable that he keeps shooting (much like Russ), but he should lean more on that very adept playmaking (6.7 assists a game). His assist to turnover ratio, both in counting stats and in rate, is actually pretty good, near 3 and 2 respectively. But until he learns to control his pace and hit a jumper at a respectable rate, he’ll be difficult to watch.
