Escaping Mediocrity in Charlotte

I swear there’s an alternative reality out there where Heavy D & The Boyz’s “Now That We Found Love” is actually a lamentation of the blissful ignorance a stable but ultimately fruitless relationship lulls you into after years of wallowing in the bowels of singledom. I would love to pull that song out of that alternative reality and then set it as the playback to Hornets highlights from the last couple of years.

Beautiful, new arena? Check.

Management that embraces analytics? Check.

A respected coach who embraces where the game’s going? Check.

An owner with deep-seated ties to the game of basketball but often times flubs important decisions? Check and check.

But, after dragging the team from hellish depths of sub-.400 records, Jordan, Cho, Higgins, and the Hornets have only managed to escape to basketball purgatory: annual win totals of between 38 and 48. And, given their current trajectory, there’s no end in sight.

The Hornets have a roster of C- to C+ talent surrounding their B+ (that may be generous) star, Kemba Walker. Let’s take a closer look at this roster:

Point Guards

Kemba Walker — an undersized, shoot-first point guard who’s basically a lesser facsimile of Isaiah Thomas. He’s under contract for two more years at $12 million a year, which is an amazing value for a 20+ point scorer.

Ramon Sessions — a below-average backup point guard with a team option of $6.27 million for 2017–18, a prime target of relinquishing some space in the mid-level

Briante Weber — a young-(ish) combo guard who could develop into the backup role. He has a team option of a little over a million.

Shooting Guards

Nic Batum — a great option for the fourth option on a championship caliber team, à la Andre Iguodala on the Warriors in 2015, but definitely not capable of being the second scoring option on an otherwise scoring deficient team, especially on his $24+ million a year contract.

Jeremy Lamb — Kemba’s former backcourt mate at UConn, who still hasn’t managed to pan out. Maybe he can break out, just a little bit, this coming year.

Marco Belinelli — a not-so-good sharpshooter who has a reputation of being a sharpshooter. He could be a trade chip, especially on his expiring contract.

Treveon Graham — I don’t even have a blurb on him

Small Forward

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — there’s going to be a time when MKG is officially considered a bust, but as one of the better perimeter defenders and better wing rebounders, he has a place in the league. But unless he gets to Tony Allen status defensively, his offensive deficiencies are huge roster negatives. He hasn’t even improved as someone who can take bigger defenders off the dribble when he’s being used as a nominal power forward. Maybe a year of shaking off the rust after a major injury will bring him back to the 14 PPG defensive stopper he was drafted to become.

The Bigs

Marvin Williams — a full-time stretch four who regressed to the mean last year after a great 2015–16 contract year campaign. On his contract, he could still be useful for a good team.

Cody Zeller — a solid screener who is off his rookie contract but still scores only off pick-and-roll action. His defense needs to improve for his contract to be a little more valuable.

Miles Plumlee — a huge misstep for this team, paying $12+ million a year for a low-end center whose calling card athleticism will wane starting this season. He hasn’t even had a good season since 2013–14, his second season in the league, where he averaged 8 points and 8 rebounds for a middling Suns team.

Frank Kaminsky — a slow-footed stretch five who will be a solid change-of-pace big man off the bench.

So, out of those twelve potential rotation players, which of them are really untouchable? Maybe MKG, who’s still really young at 23, and maybe Kemba. Walker is, by far, the best player on the Hornets ledger, but as an asset, his contract is much more valuable; a top 12 point guard in the league for $12 million a year for two whole years is enticing. A team who’s a point guard away from the playoffs or contention could use him.

And that brings us to the offseason plan: fire-selling their pieces for the best assets available. So, this brings us to the trade machine portion of this column.

Trade 1: Kemba Walker to Utah for Derrick Favors, Dante Exum, and Utah’s 24th overall pick in the 2017 draft

Utah gets a point guard that gives them an offensive upgrade over George Hill, someone who’s better suited to bring out Gobert’s uses as a roll man.
Exum gets a fresh start with the keys to the Hornets castle, running pick-and-roll with Favors and Zeller and pick-and-pop with Kaminsky.

Trade 2: Kemba Walker and Marco Belinelli to Detroit for Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson, and the 12th overall pick

SVG gets a point guard who won’t make him get an aneurysm and a floor spacer. The Hornets choose to take Reggie Jackson off the Detroit books in exchange for the rights to rehab Stanley Johnson and take a flier on one of the late lottery projects in this year’s draft.

Trade 3: Kemba Walker and Nic Batum for Danilo Gallinari, Kenny Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Malik Beasley, and the 13th pick in the 2017 draft

That’s a huge payout for Kemba and Batum, but a starting lineup of Kemba, Gary Harris, Nic Batum, Hernangomez/Arthur, and Jokic is a playoff team, no doubt, especially given the brigade of young players on the Nuggets bench. Mudiay and Beasley give the Hornets two prospects to groom, and Gallinari is a trade chip on his last year and Faried is an energy power forward that can be fit in somehow.

Regardless of what the trade is, the Hornets need to pull back some picks. A team like the Hornets will never attract top free agents, and their drafting needs to be on point. And that brings us to prong two of this offseason: nailing the 11th overall pick.

Mock drafts have Zach Collins to Charlotte, adding to the cavalcade of white bigs the Hornets have. I don’t particularly like that fit, especially given the monetary investment they’ve made to the center position. Personally, I’d take either Donovan Mitchell out of Louisville. Mitchell is a rangy defender who is a top three athlete in this draft. His three point shot improved from his freshman season, and he needs to prove that it’s going to stay at a 36–38% clip. And even though he’s undersized, Mitchell plays brilliant off-ball and can attack a close out when necessary. Think Avery Bradley but a better athlete and the ability to turn into a better one-on-one scorer. And even if his offense doesn’t improve quite that much, a player like Mitchell fits perfectly next to Walker.

However, if, by the grace of God, either Dennis Smith or Frank Ntilikina falls out of the top 10, that’s the pick, even if the Hornets don’t trade away Kemba. Having the point guard of the future already on the roster will allow the Hornets to develop Smith or Ntilikina slowly while contending for a playoff spot. However, without Kemba on the roster, the Hornets will surge directly to the bottom of the league, tank consistently, and start to draft near the top of the draft, as they should.

So, in this ideal offseason, let’s say the Kemba to Detroit trade occurs. Reggie Jackson and Nic Batum, with the newly drafted Donovan Mitchell and Justin Jackson/Zach Collins, will headline the roster. The next route is to use the mid-level exception to find a playable backup point guard, maybe someone like Shelvin Mack. This roster will easily tank, winning about 26–30 games, falling into a top seven pick in next year’s draft. And now, Batum’s contract will be more enticing, probably bringing back another late first round pick and a second rounder.

The Hornets don’t have a path to improve directly from this roster. It was a good attempt at building a 2010–11 Houston Rockets type of team that will compete for the playoffs and have the ability to improve to contention without sustained tanking. But the Hornets don’t nearly have the assets the Rockets will stockpiling before the Harden trade, which forces their hand to succumb to tanking again.