Free Agency Primer: Free Agency Tiers
I was supposed to roadmap every franchise’s offseason, but Danny Leroux copped my idea. So, here’s what I’ll do today — it’s a two-part column. Here, we’ll separate the free agents into tiers and predict their likely destinations for the 2017–18 season. You can find the other part here.
The Grand Prizes
Stephen Curry
Projection: 5 years, $207 million with the Golden State Warriors
Curry’s last deal was weak, but not again. The Warriors are going to max him out and keep the core together for at least another year.
Chris Paul
Projection: 5 years, $210 million with the Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are going to roll it back with Chris Paul. Looks like we’re gonna have more this moving forward.
Kevin Durant
Projection: 1+1, $65 million with the Golden State Warriors
Roll it back, unfortunately.
Gordon Hayward
Projection: 4 years, $132 million with the Boston Celtics
The Celtics need another scorer to ease the pressure off Isaiah Thomas. Gordon Hayward reunites with the master strategist, Brad Stevens. Expect to see a lot of Hayward-Thomas pick-and-rolls and Thomas playing off the ball with Hayward handling.
The Consolation Prizes
Blake Griffin
Projection: 5 years, $175 million with the Los Angeles Clippers
FIVE MORE YEARS! FIVE MORE YEARS!
Paul Millsap
Projection: 2 years, $72 million with the Denver Nuggets
I love the Jokic-Millsap inside combination. Millsap makes up for Jokic’s defensive woes, and the passing and offensive versatility between the two of them will be magical.
Kyle Lowry
Projection: 5 years, $205 million with the Toronto Raptors
A year or two of this…
…followed by three years of this.
Whatever, it’s the Golden Age of Raptors basketball.
The Plug-and-Play Starters
Jrue Holiday
Projection: 5 years, $140 million with the New Orleans Pelicans
Holiday takes a $32 million haircut off the max contract he can demand, so that the Boogie-Brow combo can be retained in the future. Holiday needs to find his balance with those two, however, if the Pelicans have any hope of the playoffs in 2018.
Jeff Teague
Projection: 5 years, $120 million with the Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have no better option than to resign the herky-jerky point guard who pairs best in a pick-and-roll system. Maybe he can have a Renaissance season with Paul George gone.
George Hill
Projection: 3 years, $80 million with the Utah Jazz
With Gordon Hayward gone, the Jazz will scramble to keep up and have some semblance of continuity from last season.
J.J. Redick
Projection: 3 years, $60 million with the Philadelphia 76ers
This is my first hot take. San Antonio, Milwaukee, and probably Chicago will probably come knocking on Redick’s door, but he can prolong his career as a spot-up shooter for a spacing-challenged young team like Philly, who should take him out to Zahav for the pitch.
Danilo Gallinari
Projection: 2 years, $55 million with the Miami Heat
Miami is sorely lacking in wing and forward shooting, and Gallinari would plug and play beautifully next to the Dragic-Whiteside pick-and-roll.
James Johnson
Projection: 2 years, $50 million with the Miami Heat
Imagine a lineup of Dragic, Josh Richardson, Johnson, Gallinari, and Whiteside, playing extremely fast and driving and kicking. That’s actually a little scary.
Serge Ibaka
Projection: 3 years, $80 million with the Toronto Raptors
The Raps roll it back with the Lowry-DeRozan-Ibaka-Valanciunas bullshit lineup.
We need more of this.
Taj Gibson
Projection: 2 years, $56 million with the Boston Celtics
The Celtics give Amir Johnson the boot and replace him with a better defender and rebounder and scorer. A big man rotation of Horford, Gibson, and Olynyk is extremely versatile.
The Solid Role Players
Patty Mills
Projection: 3 years, $58 million with San Antonio Spurs
Patty Mills will take a little less than he could get from another team, as the Spurs transition into the stop-gap phase before the Dejounte Murray era.
Andre Roberson
Projection: 4 years, $90 million with the Oklahoma City Thunder
The Cinderella City continues to rebrand themselves as The Brick City. Sorry, Newark.
Jonathon Simmons
Projection: 3 years, $45 million with the San Antonio Spurs
Simmons will get offers from Brooklyn and other teams that could use players… until everyone remembers that he’s already 27. The Spurs maintain one of their best “young” role players.
P.J. Tucker
Projection: 2 years, $25 million with the Atlanta Hawks
Out goes Thabo Sefolosha and in comes the Enloe High School grad. Tucker will provide the perimeter defense necessary in the wing rotation of Hardaway, Prince, Tucker, and Bazemore.
Bojan Bogdanovic
Projection: 3 years, $30 million with the Washington Wizards
Bogdanovic fit really well next to Beal and Wall as a safety valve, and in lineups with Otto Porter as the stretch four. The Wizards should be wary of teams with more cap space poaching Bogdanovic at an exorbitant price.
Joe Ingles
Projection: 3 years, $45 million with the Utah Jazz
Gordon Hayward is like Ferrari of white NBA players. Joe Ingles is the Honda Accord — large, clunky, but reliable. The Jazz are gonna look like a shell of themselves next year, unfortunately.
Patrick Patterson
Projection: 3 years, $40 million with the Atlanta Hawks
With Paul Millsap gone, the best fit next to Dwight Howard and his ugly post game is the three point bombing, switchy power forward.
JaMychal Green
Projection: 4 years, $70 million with the Memphis Grizzlies
Green’s development is imperative if the Memphis Grizzlies have any shot of contending for a top five seed. Shedding Zach Randolph is the only way out.
Dewayne Dedmon
Projection: 3 years, $45 million with the Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are apparently guaranteeing Tony Bradley a first round pick if he’s available. But Bradley isn’t ready to be a center in the NBA yet. Dedmon could be a stop-gap for him and give Russell, Ingram, and Ball exactly the type of center they’ll be playing with in the future.
Kelly Olynyk
Projection: 3 years, $50 million with the Boston Celtics
A lot of teams will come calling for the stretch five who can’t do much more than shoot, but the Celtics will retain him as their first big off the bench.
Air Kelly will be grounded in Logan for a while.
Mason Plumlee
Projection: 4 years, $70 million with the Denver Nuggets
Is $18 million a year for a backup center with limited offensive potential too much? Perhaps. But Jokic’s contract, along with all the young players make it an easy pill to swallow for a big who gives them a change of pace backup.
The Has-Beens
Derrick Rose
Projection: 2 years, $50 million with the Minnesota Timberwolves
I think the Rose-Thibs reunion in Minnesota is serious. Seriously happening and seriously stupid. It’s exactly the move that will stunt Wiggins and LaVine’s growth.
Dwyane Wade
Projection: Opt-in for another year in Chicago
Wade will play out his contract for another year before he commences his ring-chasing journey.
Rudy Gay
Projection: 2 years, $70 million with the Brooklyn Nets
No one wants an injury prone small forward who isn’t a solid shooter and plays mostly in isolation. Lin, Gay, and Lopez could be a 35 win team and give the hipsters something to cheer about… but not likely. The Nets will sign him, hoping for this:
And, sadly, they’ll be getting this:
Pau Gasol
Projection: 1 year, $1.6 million with the Memphis Grizzlies
Pau comes back to where he began his NBA career to play with little bro and start studying for the MCAT.
The Young Max Outs
Otto Porter
Projection: 5 years, $147 million with the Washington Wizards
The Wizards can’t really get an equivalent combo forward if they forego resigning Porter. There’s not way out of it: they have to fork over the cash.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Projection: 5 years, $147 million with the Philadelphia 76ers
A lineup of Redick, KCP, Simmons, Josh Jackson/Jason Tatum, and Embiid? I’m intrigued.
Nikola Mirotic
Projection: 3 years, $72 million with the Chicago Bulls
Butler and Mirotic had great second halves to the season. It’s not inconceivable that that’s their core moving forward.
Nerlens Noel
Projection: 5 years, $147 million with the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas equation of the 2011 season was to pair a stretch big with a rim-running, devastating rim-protector and surround those two with shooters. Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel, Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry… I guess that’s a facsimile of that?
The Gambles
Rajon Rondo
Projection: 1 year, $10 million with the San Antonio Spurs
I have no clue where Rondo is going to end up. Chicago probably wants him back after his heroic two game stretch in the playoffs. But Rondo under Pop’s supervision gives me tingly feelings.
Milos Teodosic
Projection: 2 years, $20 million with the Denver Nuggets
Let the Serbian revolution begin in the Rockies.
Dion Waiters
Projection: 2 years, $40 million with the Miami Heat
The Heat should resign Waiters, but keep him on a tight leash. I hate that idiom, by the way, but it is what it is.
Ben McLemore
Projection: 1 year, $1.3 million with the Cleveland Cavaliers
Clutch Sports takes care of its own. McLemore will try to reinvigorate his career as one of LeBron’s horde of three point shooting benchmen.
Tim Hardaway, Jr.
Projection: 4 years, $90 million with the Atlanta Hawks
I don’t think any other team is going to offer the max to him. Atlanta should secure this off-ball upstart for years to come.
Shabazz Muhammad
Projection: 2 years, $18 million with the Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee finds their Michael Beasley replacement, who will probably walk to less green pastures.
JaVale McGee
Projection: Anywhere from 1 year, $1.5 million with the Warriors to 3 years, $30 million from the Knicks or the Nets
I literally have no clue here.
