Let’s Try to Save the Cavs
The yearly LeBron team trade article around late January will be something I’ll miss the most when LeBron retires. Here we go again.
LeBron’s annoying to deal with if you’re a front office. He’s kept the team hostage with his 1+1 deals and his ties to Rich Paul’s dealings, all of which has greatly reduced their ability to mold a championship caliber team around him this year.
The problems are clear and have been brow-beaten. They’re the worst defensive team in the NBA, and when they’re not dropping threes like Coach K drops bags around North America, they’re not the wildly explosive offense that propelled them to that December streak.
According to Cleaning the Glass, they sit at a -0.1 net rating, so basically breaking even. Ben Falk registers these stats by throwing out garbage time, so this deflates the negative net rating that the Cavs have overall. But take a easy look at the overall lineup data and you get the picture: they can’t defend and they can’t rebound, both defensively (which Love, Thompson, and LeBron did and theoretically should take care of) and offensively (which Thompson used to be an ace at), ranking on the 15th percentile of defensive rating and around the 25th to 35th percentile in rebounding percentage.
Here’s the next quick check. These are the three worst lineups the Cavs have played for a significant number of possessions:
Derrick Rose, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love (ORTG of 108.3, DRTG of 129.4)
Isaiah Thomas, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love (ORTG of 95.8, DRTG of 116.7)
Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love (ORTG of 102.4, DRTG of 113.3)
Their worst two lineups are the lineups they would theoretically want to throw out against the Warriors! It’s crazy to think their worst lineup features their three best offensive players, and some of that should be ironed given enough time spent together. But that time spent together is sour, so who really knows? But those lineups are ball-dominant point guard, a theoretical 3-and-D wing guard who’s in a shooting slump and is an average defender at best, LeBron, a combo forward who should be playing 20 minutes a game and not 26 minutes, and a stretch four playing entirely out of position at center. It’s asinine that anyone thought that this could ever be a good defensive team.
Here are the top three lineups:
Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, Jeff Green, Channing Frye (ORTG of 123.6, DRTG of 91.8)
Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, Jeff Green, Channing Frye (ORTG of 122.2, DRTG of 109.3)
Jose Calderon, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love (ORTG of 114.3, DRTG of 107.0)
Yes, I understand the disclaimers: those first two lineups succumb to small sample size theater and the second one is against far inferior bench lineups that don’t feature a top three shooting guard and a top five shooter of all time.
But think about that lineup construction: it’s a single ball-handler with great finishing and creating ability (LeBron and Wade) surrounded with shooters. It’s fucking insane that a lineup with Wade guarding point guards and Kyle Korver guarding a wing or forward has that low a defensive rating, especially without even an average rim protector in there. Probably small sample size, but it’s a lesson: the best lineup around LeBron is exactly what LeBron wants.
In an idealized world, here’s the lineup I’d put alongside LeBron while skirting some salary cap considerations:
Patrick Beverley, Klay Thompson, LeBron James, Paul George, Dewayne Dedmon
That’s four players who will never need the ball, two top tier off-ball scorers, a ball-hawking off-ball point guard, and a center who’s a rim protector but still can pop on offense if he needs to.
That lineup will never come to fruition, but is there a way to get 75% there? That Wade-Korver-Frye-Green-LeBron lineup is a little like that. But you can’t play a lineup with three 35+ year olds for more than two or three minutes a game.
Before we get to the trades, the multiple trades, let’s talk about the assets on the Cavs:
- Channing Frye and Iman Shumpert’s expiring contracts — a selling team will want these contracts back so they can continue tanking and clear up cap space and maybe get below the tax if need be
- Kevin Love — an All-Star caliber power forward who can still be the first option or second option on a playoff team. Pair him with a good point guard and you’ll get to 45 wins and excite your fanbase.
- Isaiah Thomas — why isn’t he a trade option? A team that needs a scorer could take on Thomas’s contract and have a leg up in resigning him, especially since the market probably will be dry for him this summer. That Brinks truck isn’t coming.
- The 2018 Cleveland first round pick— even with marginal lineup improvements, I would be surprised to see this pick crawl into the 25–30 range. It’s an asset to sweeten a deal.
- The 2018 Brooklyn first round pick — is this really that valuable to Cleveland even if LeBron leaves? Why not stick a top 5 protection on it and trade it away if it means picking off a package of plus players or a star? A lot of analysts have mentioned that even if Cousins were available, the Brooklyn pick wouldn’t be enough for the non-guarantee of resigning Cousins. I understand that the Brooklyn pick is probably a top ten pick, but in a draft that’s six deep, it’s not an asset that should be hoarded onto if it could mean retaining LeBron. I mean, is Collin Sexton or Mikal Bridges or Kevin Knox really something that will cushion the blow of losing LeBron for a second time?
The Lame Trades
Here’s a couple trades that could shake things up significantly but are unlikely:
Cleveland throws in their own 2018 pick
Here’s the updated Cavs starting lineup:
Kemba Walker, Nic Batum, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love
I actually like that. The rim protection isn’t there yet, but that’s an offensive and (slight to moderate) defensive upgrade from Thomas and Smith.
The Hornets would probably veto this trade because they’d have to take back Tristan Thompson’s poison contract in their already stacked homologous frontcourt. Maybe the pick would help out, so Charlotte could add a high-risk prospect late in the first round, but probably not. So however much I like that for the Cavs, we’re throwing it out.
How about this one?
If the Jazz need a sweetener, give them the 2018 Cavs first rounder. If I were Koby Altman, I’d do this in a heartbeat. Favors is a center, and a good one at that. Jerebko is Channing Frye but better, and Rodney Hood is overwhelmed at being a primary creator on a team.
Updated Cavs lineup: Thomas, Hood, LeBron, Crowder, Favors, with a bench with Wade, Smith, Jerebko, Green, Korver, and Thompson. Obviously some cuts have to happen to accomodate this, but adding three rotation players that work around LeBron and on a team that sorely lacks rebounding is hard to pass up.
That being said, do the Jazz really want a core of Mitchell, Gobert, Love, and Rubio? Wait, that’s not really that bad… That’s a playoff team, right?
The Series of Trades That Will Fix the Cavs
I’m fixing the Cavs, right here and right now.
Here’s the surprising part, I want Kevin Love on this team. I have three years of evidence that, with him in the lineup, LeBron has a definitive safety valve on offense. Love becomes useless when he’s turned into a role player.
Cavs receive: George Hill
Kings receive: Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye, and a 2019 second rounder
Cavs receive: Avery Bradley
Kings receive: Isaiah Thomas and Cedi Osman
Cavs receive: Nerlens Noel and Wesley Matthews
Kings receive: Tristan Thompson and the 2018 Cavs first round pick
The first trade is happening already. The Kings need to shed the Hill contract. That second trade makes sense for both teams. The Pistons need a point guard for the rest of the year with Jackson out. Isaiah Thomas will be able to run the spread pick-and-roll with Andre Drummond better than Ish Smith and Langston Galloway. That last trade might run into some snags, but the Mavs are in a sell mode, so they wouldn’t mind absorbing the Thompson contract, which will be movable next year for a first round pick.
So here’s the depth chart for the Cavs:
Guards: George Hill, Avery Bradley, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Jose Calderon
Wings: LeBron James, Wesley Matthews, J.R. Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver
Bigs: Kevin Love, Nerlens Noel, and Ante Zizic
Rose is unplayable. Sit him down. A starting lineup of Hill, Bradley, LeBron, Love, and Noel, on paper, fits perfectly and features a rim-protector (albeit one with a hot dog addiction). Hill and Bradley are great and good off-ball shooters (47.8% and 40.6% from three, respectively). And they’re huge defensive upgrades from Thomas and Smith. LeBron can facilitate from pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop sets with Love and Noel, and there’s some more rebounding potential out there.
There’s more versatility with this roster than the Cavs have right now with redundant parts that could be subbed in and out with shooting slumps.
There are less creators on the team, but LeBron’s already using a crazy number of possessions, so what’s really the difference. Run an offense that’s predicated on LeBron-Love pick-and-roll action from the high post. When Love’s not playing, let LeBron operate from the high post with a cavalcade of lethal shooters surrounding him. On defense, throw some hungry players who haven’t won yet (Hill and Bradley) or haven’t been paid yet (Noel) and get some energy.
There we go. Dan Gilbert, hire me.
