Stationary Summer Tales from the NBA

If I see another “Winners and Losers” piece about this offseason, I might just throw up. Like literally upchuck chunks of aloo paratha onto my phone. And since I’m no masochist, I’ll avoid the winners and losers trope when I talk about the offseason moves around the league.

1. Danny Ainge has something up his sleeves. At least, he better have.

I’m still struggling to understand all three of Boston’s moves, especially in the context of one another:

They traded away Markelle Fultz, a can’t miss big point guard prospect in a league where big scoring point guards are key, for Jayson Tatum, a score-first wing with limited athletic and defensive upside, a a top-ten pick in either 2018 or 2019, a pick that’ll probably yield another above average, athletic wing or big prospect. 2018 and 2019 are supposedly weak point guard classes. Even so, their 2019 Clippers and Memphis picks look like they might actually be lottery picks too.

They followed that up with signing Gordon Hayward and failing to offer up enough assets to beat out the Victor Oladipo/Domantas Sabonis price for Paul George. Sure, Indiana probably didn’t want to trade George to an Eastern Conference opponent, and even if Boston landed George, there was always the chance that they’d miss out on the Finals and lose him to the Lakers in 2018. But seriously though? Would Indiana really have turned down Jae Crowder, Tyler Zeller, the 2018 Celtics pick, and the 2019 Memphis pick? And then, to make enough room for Gordon Hayward, the Celtics traded away Avery Bradley, their best perimeter defender and a much improved off-ball scorer, for Marcus Morris, whose job is going to be just confusing everyone in the next installment in the Celtics-Wizards rivalry.

So, the Celtics depth chart went from

PG: Thomas/Rozier
SG: Bradley/Smart
SF: Crowder/Brown
PF: Johnson/Jerebko
C: Horford/Olynyk

to

PG: Thomas/Rozier
SG: Crowder/Smart
SF: Hayward/Tatum
PF: Morris/Brown
C: Horford/Baynes

Is that 2017–18 lineup really that much better that it’ll contend in the East with Cleveland’s continuity? And does that extra top-ten pick really make their future that much more brighter than if they picked up their point guard of the future?

Throwing away the Paul George pipe dream, I’d have much rather kept the first overall pick, drafted Fultz, played him heavy minutes with and behind Thomas, and drafted a big man of the future with the 2018 Brooklyn pick. I’d still go after Hayward, and I’d find new homes for Crowder and Smart, both of whom probably would’ve netted rotation players as good as Marcus Morris. Here’s the depth chart for this hypothetical 2017–18 Celtics team:

PG: Thomas/Fultz
SG: Bradley/Rozier
SF: Hayward/Brown
PF: Replacement level stretch four/Replacement level combo wing
C: Horford/Baynes

Sure, this team will probably win a few less games in the regular season and probably can’t take the Cavs to six, let alone seven in the playoffs. But, Fultz is that much better than Tatum, even if the latter has shown some very refined offensive moves and great rebounding instincts in Summer League. Fultz offers the Celtics the flexibility to low-ball Isaiah Thomas next summer, and not be forced to pay a tiny guard $40+ million a year, as he crosses over to the other side of 30. Maybe Marcus Smart is the point guard of the future for Ainge, but I can’t believe that.

What’s more likely, in my opinion, after watching Ainge deal this offseason is that there’s a Godfather deal approaching should the Pelicans or the Bucks totally implode. Would the new managerial regime in New Orleans say no to an offer of Brown, Smart, the 2018 Brooklyn pick, the 2018 Lakers pick with the protections, and the 2019 Memphis pick for Anthony Davis? Or how about the same for a Giannis that gets disgruntled with Milwaukee’s inability to pair him with another star? There’s got to be more than this, more than drafting wings who, at best, are All-Stars and landing free agents who can’t even crack the top five in the league at their position.

2. Utah isn’t in shambles after losing Gordon Hayward.

One of the most brilliant draft-night moves was Utah proactively trading away their 24th overall pick and Trey Lyles to the Denver Nuggets to draft Donovan Mitchell at thirteen overall. It was the perfect preemptive move: if Hayward left, they could commit to a younger team with a guard I had on eighth on my big board. If Hayward stayed, they could move away from Exum and get some picks in return. Those are the types of moves that can keep your franchise viable while retooling for the future.

The Rubio trade also helped Utah commit to winning now without sacrificing their future entirely. Signing George Hill on a three-year deal would have. A lineup of Rubio, Hood, Ingles, Favors, and Gobert could be a crazy good defensive team with some great young bench pieces in Exum, Mitchell, Burks (if healthy) and Tony Bradley. Utah’s still in position to make the playoffs and make life hell for the one of the top teams in the first round.

3. Darryl Morey continues to be creative with the cap, but it probably won’t be enough.

Paying lesser teams for players on non-guaranteed contracts to create enough tradeable salary for Chris Paul was ingenuous. But the issue with the Rockets, even though they did improve their offensive versatility and their defensive personnel, is that they still don’t have an answer for the best wings in the game. Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker are capable defenders, but Ariza’s best days of guarding the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant are in the past, and P.J. Tucker can be easily marginalized by ignoring him on offense. There’s some talk of the Rockets possibly flipping Ryan Anderson’s contract for Carmelo Anthony or even Boogie Cousins, but even so, we’re priming for a Chris Paul exodus next summer.

4. The Sacramento Kings are trending upwards.

The Kings draft was smart. De’Aaron Fox has a lot of potential, but his floor is potentially scary. You can only go so far in the NBA if your ball-dominant point guard can’t shoot a lick beyond fifteen feet. So, instead of drafting Malik Monk, whose ceiling probably isn’t that high (contrary to Bill Simmons’s belief) and who won’t be able to guard wings who are bigger than him (newflash: all wings in the NBA are going to be bigger than him), and creating a logjam that will constrict both Buddy Hield’s and Monk’s development, Vlade Divac decided to swap the tenth pick for Justin Jackson and Harry Giles.

At worst, Jackson’s a seventh man on a great team, giving you great off-ball scoring and average to slightly above average defense of slower point guards, all shooting guards, and weaker small forwards. At best, he’s the second or third scorer on a good to great team, coming off screens for quick jumpers (his release has quickened so much since I first started watching him) or throwing up highly accurate floaters on drives attacking close outs. He’s a perfect complement and safety valve to the backcourt of Hield and Fox.

Giles, even if he doesn’t develop, probably pans out as a league average NBA big, providing energy and rebounding and finishing off the bench. If he does develop, he’s the ideal type of center for the league.

Now, if everyone develops like the Kings want them to, their optimized scheme would be Fox and Giles, running a ton of pick-and-roll with Jackson, Hield, and Skal providing good movement and space around it. On defense, Fox is a great start at the point of attack and Skal’s shot blocking could be a good backline. Jackson could take the best wing, and Giles could turn into a glass-eating, weakside defender.

The development of their young assets should be Sacramento’s sole focus for the next few years. And with the signings of Zach Randolph (2 for $24 million, probably would’ve gone 2 for $20 million), George Hill (3 for $57 million, probably would’ve gone 2 for $50 millions), and Vince Carter (1 for $8 million), they’ve brought in three veterans who won’t make their team significantly better, and thus, not jeopardizing their draft pick in 2018. However, Vlade and Vivek have created a talent incubator with two three consummate professionals, all of whom have differing trajectories in the league: the maligned talent turned lunch-pail guy in Randolph, the heady role player who consistently improved every single year he’s been in the league in Hill, and the superstar who learned how to age in Carter. The Kings are starting to make moves that make sense, and that doesn’t make sense.

5. The Spurs are the dark horse winner of this offseason.

I finally digested my dinner, so I could succumb to the winners/losers talk. And yes, I am going to make the case that the Spurs are the winners of the offseason.

Even if the Spurs added Chris Paul, they wouldn’t have been able to contend with the Warriors. Instead, they stood pat, signed Rudy Gay to a nominal contract, and retained flexibility for next summer. Here’s how this year will play out for them: Pop will focus on developing their young players. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White will play a lot of minutes. They’ll make mistakes, and Pop will yell at them. But Kawhi will work his magic and iron out those kinks. Aldridge will look decent as the second option on this team, and the wing combination of Green and Simmons will play good defense. Pop will start tinkering with Gay and Leonard at the forward positions and maybe even get a little crazy and play Gay at center sometimes. The Spurs will win somewhere between 56 and 60 games, and they’ll win a tight series against the Rockets, only to be humiliated in the Conference Finals by the retooled Warriors.

So, let’s fast forward exactly 11 months and 3 weeks. The Warriors are repeat champions, and Chris Paul AND LeBron James are disgruntled and in free agency. Aldridge opts in to his final year in his contract because his stock in the league has fallen greatly, but R.C. Buford is able to peddle him and a pick or asset to the Nets. Danny Green opts out because he’s sure to dictate more than $10 million a year on the open market, and lo and behold, the Spurs have $50 million in cap space. That’s enough space for both LeBron and Paul. I won’t go as far as Ben Golliver and Andrew Sharp did here and suggest the whole Banana Boat joining the Spurs (but seriously, LeBron, CP3, and Kawhi forming a big three with Wade and Anthony shouldering the bench scoring load is really interesting), but it’s possible that Wade or some other veteran signs a small contract to play the Ginobili role off the bench. Maybe Trevor Ariza wants to win a ring really badly and takes a midlevel salary to play 20 minutes a game and annoy Durant in the playoffs. Or maybe Will Barton takes a 3 for $21 million contract to be a gunner. Regardless, the Spurs could fully reload and throw out a lineup of Paul, Simmons/Green, Leonard, James, and Dedmon with Murray, White, and veterans off the bench.

Even if this hypothetical doesn’t pan out, the 2018 free agency class is considerably deeper than this year’s, and very few contending teams will have the sheer cap space San Antonio will boast. If the Spurs wasted the little space they have now on an ill-advised attempt to win a game or two against the Warriors, they’ll lose out on building a pesky veteran team that can challenge the Warriors in 2018–19 and beyond.