The Atlantic Division Season Preview

Boston and Toronto reign supreme, Philly tries to improve, and the New York teams struggle to find an identity.

Boston Celtics (Crevice Predicted Wins: 56)

Projected starting lineup: Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, Al Horford
Most intriguing lineup: Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford
Best case scenario: Kyrie is actually a top 10 player like Bill Simmons says and the Celtics make the Finals
Worst case scenario: Kyrie Irving+Gordon Hayward+Jayson Tatum < Isaiah Thomas+Avery Bradley+Jae Crowder, and the Celtics get steamrolled by LeBron again

What’s the best rotation for the Celtics?

Here’s the depth chart for the Celtics:

PG: Kyrie Irving/Terry Rozier
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Gordon Hayward/Jayson Tatum
PF: Marcus Morris/Jaylen Brown
C: Al Horford/Aron Baynes

That’s the nine man rotation who’s going to play the bulk of minutes. Shane Larkin will get a few minutes here and there, as will Semi Ojeleye. The starting lineup itself isn’t set.

We know that Irving, Hayward, and Horford are definites. That leaves a wing position and a big position up for grabs. And I don’t think they’ll have a set starting lineup; it’ll vacillate as a function of their opponent on a given night.

There are two types of general teams, and it’s a pivot on the wings and the power forward position. With the recent news out of Cleveland that Jae Crowder will be starting, Cleveland is becoming one of those teams that’ll have a versatile combo forward at the power forward. It just happens to be the best player in basketball, but that’s neither here nor there.

Against a team with regular wings (Wade and Crowder) and two combo forwards, Boston’s probably starting Smart at shooting guard and throwing out Morris at the switchy power forward. That’ll leave Jaylen Brown on the bench as the versatile two through four defender and Tatum as the bench scorer.

Now, let’s take the Utah Jazz, for example, with their two enormous wings and two enormous bigs. That’s prime territory for a Jaylen Brown at small forward start, shifting Hayward as a nominal shooting guard. Aron Baynes can start at center to provide more rebounding and interior defense, leaving a relatively small bench, but packed with grit with Rozier, Smart, and Morris.

It’s a versatile lineup, and that’s the Celtics’ biggest asset this season.

But here’s the issue. For the sake of loading up on wings that can play two through four, they didn’t quite address their Achilles’ heels: defensive rebounding. There are two essential tasks on a defensive position: prevent the make and end the possession with a defensive rebound. Last year, the Celtics gave up 13.9 points to their opponent off second chance opportunities. That was 27th in the league, right above Golden State. So, maybe they’re prioritizing the right thing, especially since the best teams in the league only give 10 such points.

But here’s the catch: they lost 8 of their 10 best defensive rebounders by percentage from last year’s roster, and 7 of their 10 best defensive rebounders by time adjusted numbers. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder were often responsible to compensate for Horford as he was mostly in charge of rim protection.

Morris isn’t a particularly good rebounder, possibly because Andre Drummond plays like a hungry, hungry hippo on the glass. Hayward and Tatum need to crash the boards, the latter of whom is actually a pretty talented rebounder. It won’t be seamless, but the sacrifice of defensive rebounding for positional versatility is probably the right calculation.

How do the Celtics replace Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder’s defense?

This is the key issue for the Celtics this coming year. I won’t pile on the praise for Bradley and Crowder, claiming that they deserve surefire All-Defense spots, even though they are among the best perimeter defenders in the league.

Bradley’s ability to pressure lead ball-handlers to the point where they become entirely off-ball players on offense is extremely important in disrupting the natural flow of an offense. Crowder can guard threes and fours and, in a pinch, twos and ones. But the most utile aspects of Bradley’s and Crowder’s games is their competence on offense, as shooters, spotting up and coming off curls. And we have to recognize Bradley as one of the best cutters in the game.

The Bradley and Crowder minutes are going to be replaced by Tatum and Hayward. There’s reason to believe that Tatum can develop into a good defender, with good size, length, and athleticism, but for now, and probably for a few years, he’ll be a sieve. Hayward’s a good defender. He’s probably underrated on that end, with his athleticism and solid training in the Jazz system.

There’s a bunch of great clips on YouTube of Hayward playing solid perimeter defense and contesting on shots and forcing misses. But relying on Hayward as being the linchpin defender against the best wings in the league may be asking too much.

There’s an adjustment there, of course: Marcus Morris has consistently been a solid defender against small forwards. Think about a series against the Cavaliers, with Morris on LeBron, Smart shading Thomas, Hayward checking Crowder, Kyrie hiding on Wade or Smith, and Horford banging with Love. That’s as good as a lineup to guard these Cavs. Obviously, LeBron will probably outskill Morris and Love will eat Horford alive, but it works.

The Celtics are intending on Smart providing 80 to 90% of what Bradley offered on point guards, but that only means that he’ll be even less effective on offense. Having that huge a hole on offense is something that Brad Stevens will have to scheme for.

Are the Celtics done making moves?

I really don’t think so. This team is probably only marginally better than last year’s Herculean Thomas-led effort.

Luckily for the Celtics, they have three more first round picks to dole out, all of which are pretty valuable: a 2018 Lakers first rounder which could turn into a 2019 Philly or Sacramento first (regardless, that’s a valuable trade chip), a 2019 Clippers first, and a 2019 Grizzlies pick. Both the Clippers and Grizzlies can have a disastrous next couple of years, and if so, those are probably picks between 11–20. If you’re the Pelicans, you’re going to watch the Boogie-Brow and no shooters experiment fail miserably.

The Celtics should throw as many assets at Anthony Davis as possible, even if it means having to part ways with Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. But who says not to this:

Pelicans receive Al Horford, Jaylen Brown and the 2018/2019 weird pick and the Clippers 2019 first rounder
Celtics receive Anthony Davis, Alexis Ajinca, and Darius Miller

That’s a core of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Anthony Davis with Tatum and Morris shoring up a really versatile lineup with tons of scoring and tons of switching ability. Sure, the bench is a little thing, but Rozier, Smart, and Baynes is a start, and I’m sure the veteran buyout market could supplement the roster. I personally would throw all the picks in that trade because Anthony Davis is too tantalizing a piece in a Stevens offense, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Toronto Raptors (Crevice Predicted Wins: 52)

Projected starting lineup: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
Most intriguing lineup: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, C.J. Miles, Jonas Valanciunas
Best case scenario: 52–54 wins, and a Conference Finals appearance
Worst case scenario: Lowry and Ibaka take a step back, 46–48 wins, and a first round flameout

Can we place take a moment to celebrate the Raptors?

Please.

For a franchise that once dealt with the tribulations of their franchise cornerstone choosing to retrieve his diploma instead of focusing entirely on a Game 7, this permutation of Canada’s team was given a roster with a gritty lead point guard, an anachronistic wing, a bevy of tough nosed wings, a 31 year old 28 year old power forward, a Bond villain of a center, and a host of young players with weird upsides that constituted a bench filled with wonder and enchantment. And that resulted in four glorious years where they won 204 regular season games and 3 playoff series.

They had this:

And a bunch of these:

And a few of these:

All of that resulted in a couple of conclusions: Masai Ujiri is a top five GM and he likes the city and the franchise likes him. That’s important.

The next couple of years are probably going to be really similar to the past few in Toronto. They’ll pile up regular season wins with a pretty good big three of Lowry, DeRozan, and Ibaka, albeit a pretty thin bench. But once the playoffs come around, they’ll sputter, albeit a huge showing from their fans, especially from their most famous superfan:

The guy on the right, not that other dude.

All in all, the league needs to celebrate this sustained success, this resiliency to try to contend even if it’s a futile attempt. The Raptors are a success story, not a failure.

Philadelphia 76ers (Crevice Predicted Wins: 42)

Projected starting lineup: Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid
Most intriguing lineup: Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid
Best case scenario: Fultz, Simmons, and Embiid are all healthy and up to bill and they make a six seed in the playoffs
Worst case scenario: Embiid can’t be healthy, Fultz and Simmons struggle, and they fail to make the playoffs again, winning 34–36 games

It’s time for another edition of recalibration corner.

How many of the young pieces on the Sixers are actually valuable?

1. Markelle Fultz — 10/10. There’s a reason why the Ben Simmons-Markelle Fultz pairing makes sense, theoretically, and it’s not Ben Simmons. Fultz makes sense next to Simmons because of his ability to be an off-ball point guard. He’s huge (6'4", 6'10" wingspan), has shooting ability, and has dribble drive ability. Brett Brown needs to figure out, pretty quickly, if he wants Fultz initiating the pick-and-roll with Simmons or Simmons initiated a pick-and-roll with Embiid (or even Fultz). I’d go with the former.
2. T.J. McConnell — 6/10, as a backup point guard. To be a backup point guard, you need to be able to play defense, make solid plays, and not make too many mistakes. McConell does all three. He’s perfect as a young leader on the team, a glue guy. But let’s take a moment and talk about his hair. White dudes in the NBA take pride in their hair, I feel. McConnell gives no fucks about that. That’s why I’m knocking his value rating up to a 7.
3. Nik Stauskas — 3/10 if his role is inflated, 7/10 if he’s a supplementary shooter. Think Sasha Vujacic on those Lakers teams. If he was spotting up in the corner and getting kick outs from Kobe or Odom, or from Gasol and Bynum from the post, he was effective. If he took more than two dribbles, he was terrible. Stauskas could be essential to a modern, spaced-out Philly team. But if he’s counted on as an important (third behind Embiid and Fultz?) scorer for the 2020 Philly team, it’ll all go bad.
4. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot — 5/10, as a 3-and-D player with an edge.
5. Furkan Korkmaz — 5/10, as a 3-and-D player with an edge. If one of TLC or Korkmaz becomes a playable rotation player, it’s a win. If they both become rotation players, that’s an absolute steal. If neither do, then it’s fine.
6. Justin Anderson — 3/10 right now, 7/10 if he can steady his shot. I, along with my (ex?)-podcast host CJ had high, high hopes for Simba. Athletic, good shooter, gritty defender. Then he broke his hand, and his shot’s never returned to form. Hopefully, the competition with TLC, Korkmaz, Stauskas, and Covington for wing minutes is going spur him to improve his shooting. If he does, he’s Jae Crowder, and that’s perfect.
7. Robert Covington — 6/10. I’m low on Covington. He’s a great defender. He’s huge. He can guard four positions comfortably. But he’s an offensive liability. It’s cute to tout Covington as a 3-and-D player when you’re losing 50 to 60 games a year. But if you’re contending for the playoffs, his shooting is a concern.
8. Ben Simmons — 7/10 if Philly thinks he’s LeBron, 8/10 if Philly thinks he’s Blake Griffin, 10/10 if Philly thinks he’s Draymond Green. The fact that Simmons was compared to LeBron is a disservice to LeBron. First, LeBron has always been a talented scorer. Simmons will struggle to get to 15 or 16 this season. Second, LeBron has always been an above average to elite defender. Simmons will struggle against wings and bigs. Lastly, we can call LeBron James LeBron. We can’t call Ben Simmons Ben. Brown should consider using Simmons how Steve Kerr uses Draymond Green, as a passer out of high pick-and-roll schemes with Fultz. That’ll unlock his finishing ability, his athleticism, and his passing.
9. Dario Saric — 5/10. I have no clue how to assess Saric. In theory, he’s a stretch four with some playmaking ability. He’s a good, not great, defensive rebounder. And he plays with fire. But, on a team that featured him down the stretch, he averaged 17 or 18 points a game on 43% shooting. But he plays the same position as Simmons. I like the idea of a small-ball lineup with Simmons at the five, Saric at the four, Fultz running point, and shooters elsewhere. That would be a lethal offensive lineup. But I can’t see Simmons and Saric playing 3 and 4 and not giving up 110 points per 100 possessions. Oh yeah, Saric is also going to be 23 and a half years old when the season starts.
10. Richaun Holmes — 6/10, as a hustle big off the bench.
11. Joel Embiid — 1/10, if he can’t play more than 30 games a season. 10/10 if he can play upwards of 60 a season. When he’s on the court, he’s easily a top five center in the league. But he’s rarely on the court.
12. Jahlil Okafor — 3/10. This is all Philly’s fault. Here’s an ingenious tanking plan: a pick-and-roll offense between McConnell and Okafor. They should have let Okafor put up 20 and 10 for a month, and then sold him high. And by high, I mean, a late first rounder or a couple of seconds. At this point, he’s barely in the rotation, and he can’t be traded. Maybe the Nets should take a look. More on that later.

Holy fuck, now I understand why J.J. Redick got $23 million a year from the 76ers. It’s $15 million for his game, and another $8 million for babysitting.

Estimate the odds of the Sixers making the playoffs.

This is interesting. In my predictions, I have them eighth in a shallow Eastern conference, but I banged the under on their season win total (41.5). So, I hedged my bets. And I’ll hedge my bets here, too. It’s a coin flip on whether the Sixers make the playoffs.

The Cavs, Celtics, Raptors, and Wizards are definitely in. Barring injuries to both Giannis and Middleton, I’d say the Bucks are a lock as well. That leaves three spots open for a combination of Miami, Detroit, Charlotte, and Philadelphia. I really think Miami and Charlotte are locks as well, unless there are major injuries to Dragic and Kemba.

So I’m betting on the Reggie Jackson/Andre Drummond/Avery Bradley combo against the Fultz/Simmons/Embiid trio. That’s a coin flip!

Here’s the best case scenario for Philly: Fultz and Simmons hit their rookie walls are different times. Embiid stays relatively healthy and plays around 65 games, even if it’s on a 24 — 28 minute a game restriction. Redick continues to be the second best floor spacer in the league behind Klay Thompson. Covington’s three point shooting goes up to around 36–38%. And the bench is hungry. All of that happening is difficult.

Here’s the worst case scenario: Fultz and Simmons hit the rookie wall at the same time, and it sustains for a while. Embiid is still a 30 game player. Redick deals with nagging injuries. Covington is still just huge Tony Allen. And the bench is bad, behind McConnell’s lack of offensive prowess and their very young wings.

Here’s what’s most likely: Fultz and Simmons both have rookie walls, and they intersect partially. Embiid is a little more healthy, but still not to a point where he’s reliable. Redick plays 70 games and gives them 15–16 points a game on 43% shooting. Covington is a 32–33% three point shooter. The bench is hit and miss.

It’s literally a coin flip! But I’m excited to watch this coin flip.

In five years, Joel Embiid is ____________, Ben Simmons is _____________, and Markelle Fultz is ____________.

In five years, Joel Embiid is no longer in the NBA. I don’t understand why Embiid is never healthy. I get the multiple lower extremity injuries is tough for a man of his size, stature, and mobility. Why is it that he never recovers?

This is just mesmerizing:

He can protect the rim like Gobert (no, I’m serious, he’s right there when he plays), he can run out and contest on threes (no, I’m serious, he really can do that when he plays), he shoots threes really well for an enormous center (no, I’m serious, his percentage is around 37% when he plays), he rebounds pretty well (no, I’m serious, he’s at 17% total rebounding when he plays), and he gets to the line a lot (no, I’m serious, he’s at 56.9% free throw rate when he plays).

But the shitty, shitty thing is that he never plays. 786 minutes in three seasons.

I’m really hoping I’m entirely wrong. I’m really hoping that he’s Hakeem Olajuwon. I’m really hoping that he ushers in a new era for big men.

In five years, Ben Simmons is not a point guard.

Alright, let’s play a game. Guess who had this stat line in 2016–2017:

10.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 7.0 APG, 3.4 stocks on 41.8/30.8/70.9 shooting splits, 16.5 PER, 2.8 OWS, and 5.4 DWS

The win shares should probably give it away. But that’s Draymond Green’s stats from last year. It’s reasonable to see this kind of peak stat line from Simmons:

13.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.4 stocks on 53.1/29.8/69.2 shooting splits, 18.8 PER, 4.9 OWS and 1.3 DWS

Is that a usable player? Definitely.

Is that a valuable player? You bet.

Is that an All-Star? I’d think so.

But is that a point guard? Hell no.

In five years, Markelle Fultz is cracking 25 points a game. Fultz is going to get buckets, if nothing else in the league. And as a huge point guard who’ll create mismatches, that’s probably the best thing he can do. This is a safe prediction, and I’m fine with it.

New York Knicks (Crevice Predicted Wins: 28)

Projected starting lineup: Ron Baker (maybe? who the fuck starts at point guard), Tim Hardaway, Jr., Courtney Lee, Kristaps Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez
Most intriguing lineup: Frank Ntilikina, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Courtney Lee, Doug McDermott, Kristaps Porzingis
Best case scenario: The lack of a point guard helps the Knicks struggle despite an All-Star season from Porzingis and they land a top three pick in 2018
Worst case scenario: Melo’s Ewing effect on the team lands them squarely as the 8–10th worst team in the league

Was that Carmelo trade good for the Knicks?

Let’s recap the trade quickly: Carmelo Anthony for Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott, and a 2018 second rounder.

I have no clue if it’s good. It’s probably bad since Kanter’s a huge contract. But there were no other deals out there apparently, and it’s better to get something back and not having to just pay Melo to leave.

Was Tim Hardaway, Jr.’s contract the worst signing of the off-season?

Yup.

Which of the best prospects in the 2018 draft is the best fit for the Knicks?

Let’s recap the pieces that the Knicks have that will be in the fold in three years: Kristaps Porzingis. He’ll be a perennial All-Star. That’s for sure.

That’s the list. Let’s say Frank Ntilikina develops to a reasonable ceiling, someone like George Hill. A good defensive point guard, who plays off-ball on offense.

Given all that, they need a facilitator. Enter Luka Doncic.

Brooklyn Nets (Crevice Predicted Wins: 24)

Projected starting lineup: Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll, Trevor Booker, Timofey Mozgov
Most intriguing lineup: D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jarrett Allen
Best case scenario: 36 wins and some hype around D’Angelo Russell and the other young pieces
Worst case scenario: There really is no worst case scenario

How many of the young pieces on the Nets are actually valuable?

Please don’t make me do this. Okay, I will.

1. D’Angelo Russell — 6/10 as a gunner point guard. Russell has locker room issues, but who really cares about that? He’ll put up big numbers this year. If he can become an offensive star, he’ll be useful, despite his defensive limitations.
2. Isaiah Whitehead — 4/10 as a backup point guard, a lot like Shelvin Mack.
3. Caris LeVert — 6/10. I’m seeing a Tim Hardaway, Jr.-esque future for LeVert. He’ll cash in on a big payday somewhere down the line, especially because the Nets will inflate his stats.
4. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson — 4/10. It’s a race between Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Justise Winslow to see who’s going to crack 33% on their three point jumper.
5. Jarrett Allen — 7/10. A rangy defensive center who can hit a midrange jumper? Sign me up.

Russell and Allen as pieces is interesting. Kenny Atkinson as a coach is interesting. Sean Marks as a GM is interesting.

In five years, D’Angelo Russell is ______________.

In five years, D’Angelo Russell is a sixth man. I think the Russell experiment is going to fail, and he’ll find a second career as a bench gunner for an offensively challenged team. That’s a valuable player and a good career. Just ask Jamaal Crawford.

Give me two more trades that the Nets can make to stockpile draft picks and broken assets.

Oh, this’ll be fun.

Here’s one:

Charlotte gets there backup point guard back, the Sixers get a stretch big, and the Nets take a change on Okafor and gets some lowly picks from Charlotte and Philly.

Here’s another:

I’ve always been high on Kilpatrick. But he can guard ones and twos and hit an open three pointer. Carroll could be perfect as another similar Jae Crowder piece, in 12 to 15 minutes a game. The Nets could get another young player in Osman and probably a second rounder or something.

One last one for the road:

A better starting point guard for the Nuggets, some added wing depth at the cost of four unplayable players.

How excited are you to finish this series and start watching actual NBA basketball?

I slacked off on these last few divisions, but I made it. I could’ve talked about Brooklyn’s dedication to a modern playing style, but everyone knows that by now.

Let’s watch some basketball now.