The Central Division Season Preview
Cleveland and Milwaukee improve, Detroit stands pat, and Indiana and Chicago fall to the bottom of the league.
Cleveland Cavaliers (Crevice Predicted Wins: 58)
Projected starting lineup: Isaiah Thomas (Derrick Rose until Thomas is back), J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson
Most intriguing lineup: J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, LeBron James, Kevin Love
Best case scenario: 60+ wins, LeBron wins MVP, and the Cavs run roughshod through the East again and beat the Warriors in a spite match in 7
Worst case scenario: low 50s win total and a loss to the Celtics in the Conference Finals
Who won the Kyrie trade?
I think the answer to this question is a lot clearer than a lot of NBA analysts have been making it out to be.
Let me complement Kyrie Irving before I smash him: he’s the most gifted one-on-one scoring point guard in the league. He can beat probably any player in the league off the dribble. And Brad Stevens will probably use him like he did Isaiah Thomas.
But can anyone legitimately say that Kyrie Irving can put in a 2017–18 campaign that exceeds Thomas’s 2016–17 campaign? Take a look at the two score-first point guards numbers per 36.
Isaiah Thomas: 30.8 points, 6.3 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 2.9 turnovers, 54.6% eFG, 20.6 FGA, and 9.1 FTA on 76 games
Kyrie Irving: 25.9 points, 6.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 2.6 turnovers, 53.5% eFG, 20.2 FGA, and 4.7 FTA on 72 games
At first glance, that looks like the same stat line. And at second line, it is. I literally ran a crude t-test and the only difference in those stats is the Thomas got to the line a lot more. Everything else is literally the same. Condition for the fact that Kyrie had LeBron, which conventional thinking would dictate depresses his scoring, and Kyrie could probably score 30 per 36.
But that’s the point: injuries aside (we’ll come back to that), Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas are equivalent point guards. Thomas is just 3 years older, 6 inches shorter, and now probably has a Isaiah Thomas-sized chip on his shoulder.
The reality is that Thomas is indeed injured. His expected return is around the All-Star break, with many reports adding a huge confidence band around that. But if the Cavs can get half a season of 80% of last year’s production from Thomas before the playoff run, that’s enough time for IT to get acclimatized to being LeBron’s sidekick. And now throw in Jae Crowder, the exact type of player that needs to be next to LeBron, a young fourth or fifth big in Zizic, and a top seven lottery pick, that’s overpaying for Kyrie.
Can you really expect Kyrie to put up better than a 30 point season? Is Kyrie Irving really that much of an upgrade defensively from Thomas to mitigate losing both Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder on the perimeter? Is Kyrie 40 point outbursts while playing aside LeBron any different from IT’s 50 spot with a bum hip and the weight of his sister’s death against a huge, defensively gifted point guard like John Wall?
Over the past few weeks, for unbiased analysts like Bill Simmons, Kyrie Irving has magically climbed up the top player rankings, from the 20s, where the bucket-getters reside, to the top 10, where the two-way superstars live. Kyrie isn’t a top 10 player. And Boston will be railroaded in the playoffs by Cleveland again this year.
Here’s a weird aside, one that I probably can substantiate with numbers if I were a little less lazy: one of the upsides to Kyrie leaving the Cavs is that, in crunch time, the ball will be taken out of Kyrie’s hands. A lot’s been made of Kyrie’s clutch play, and it’s all justified. He hit one of the most iconic shots in NBA history. But LeBron James is the headiest player in the clutch since Jordan, knowing exactly what the right move is. There’s a case to be made that Kyrie’s one-on-one antics were what let Golden State back in the game in Game 3 and let them extend the lead in Game 5 of the 2017 Finals. If LeBron were allowed to continue to make plays over and over again, the outcome probably would be the same, but the route would have probably been a lot more interesting.
What’s the best case scenario for Derrick Rose?
Ty Lue’s best move is to stagger Derrick Rose entirely with LeBron James. There’s no need for Rose to play with LeBron James, especially once Isaiah Thomas is back.
Rose is a penetrating guard, someone who’s best suited to play pick-and-roll with three shooters with him. Wait, that’s exactly the lineup LeBron likes. Derrick Rose is better than any backup point guard in the league, and he will dominate every single one of them in a spread offense.
Imagine this rotation:
Starters: Isaiah Thomas, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson
First substitution: Derrick Rose, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, Channing Frye
Second substitution: Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, Tristan Thompson
Third substitution/closers: Isaiah Thomas, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love
Sure, that scheme need some more thought, but the possibilities are endless. Rose’s creating off-the-bench and incompatibility with LeBron is exactly what LeBron needs to get some rest. The lethal five out lineups that LeBron ran with four bench players can now be coma-inducing five out lineups with Derrick Rose.
It’s entirely possible to see Derrick Rose put up 10 points and 4 assists in 18 minutes a game, and be integral in both the regular season and playoff run for the Cavs.
What’s the pivot to win now for Cleveland?
There’s a huge gameplay pivot the Cavs can make that’ll radically change their offense: feature Kevin Love.
Kevin Love is still capable of being a 22–25 point scorer if he gets consistent touches, both on the block and in the pick and roll. He’s an incredibly good pick-and-pop player. This is kinda fat Kevin Love from Minnesota, but he’s still capable of doing this, draw a center away from the rim, take up a chunk of space on the high post and then drift to the wing. Ricky Rubio can’t really provide the gravity to the rim LeBron or Isaiah Thomas will, but Love is still able to jack up a good looking three:
Love’s shot has quicked drastically since then, and it’s be advantageous for him. Love can also be used as a rim-runner, not quite the explosive rim-runner Andrew Drummond or Rudy Gobert is, but a more gifted scorer. Back in Miami, LeBron would run pick-and-rolls with Chris Bosh from around 40 feet away from the basket, which would give LeBron plenty of space to gather steam to the rim and Bosh a ton of options to spot up or run to the rim with him. Why not throw Love in that same scheme and see what the results are?
The last option on the pick-and-roll is using Love as a playmaker, much like how Draymond Green is used in Golden State. Love’s passing is an underrated aspect of his game. Take a look at this touch pass off a LeBron-Love pick-and-roll. The duck-in from the center and touch pass from the roll man is reminiscent of Chris Paul-Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan schemes.
Those passes off rolls can be especially lethal if LeBron and Love play the four and five, with three capable and willing spot-up shooters surrounding him. Honestly, a closing lineup of LeBron, Love, Smith, Crowder, and Korver seems to be as good a lineup to throw out against the Warriors, with three capable defenders for Durant and Curry, Korver chasing around Thompson, and Love holding ground against Green. On offense, that’s as spread as you can get, with three players who won’t take the ball out of LeBron’s hands.
Here’s the other pivot: blow up this roster, in a series of short-sighted moves. FIRE UP THE TRADE MACHINE, I’M GOING IN.
That Brooklyn pick is a trade chip. Kevin Love is a trade chip. It’s my solemn belief that the way to beat the Warriors is to match up with them and try to bully them. It’s a silly take, a Charles Barkley take, but in the seven wins the Cavs have against the Warriors in the past three Finals, they’ve done just that: Delly getting into Curry in 2015, LeBron battering into the lane over and over again all three years, Kyrie being fearless in 2016 and 2017, Tristan Thompson bullying the Warriors bigs.
Here’s the first trade:
The Pelicans and Cavs flip DeMarcus Cousins and Tristan Thompson and the Cavs throw in the Brooklyn pick to sweeten the deal. Davis and Thompson actually make sense paired up together, and the Brooklyn pick is probably going to yield some kind of wing for the Pelicans.
Here’s the updated Cavs roster:
PG: Thomas/Rose
SG: Smith/Shumpert
SF: LeBron/Crowder
PF: Love/Green
C: Cousins/Frye
You could stop there. But Love’s an asset. The Cavs should look to feature him heavily for a few months and then flip him. How about this? Kevin Love and Iman Shumpert to the Knicks for Carmelo Anthony and Courtney Lee. New York won’t get a better deal for Anthony. Here’s the updated roster:
PG: Thomas/Rose
SG: Smith/Lee
SF: LeBron/Crowder
PF: Anthony/Green
C: Cousins/Frye
That’s two gunners, a mercurial center who can’t be guarded by anyone on Golden State, Dwyane Wade lurking around the corner, and oh… LeBron James. If the ship’s sailing, if your city’s sports hero seemingly has one foot out the door, do something nuclear.
The downside is that you leverage your future by trading away the Brooklyn pick. The upside? You have a ton of cap space, enough to build whatever kind of roster you want around LeBron James.
How much money would I put up on LeBron for MVP?
Right now (September 22, 2017), LeBron is +450 to win MVP. That’s a $450 dollar payout if I bet $100. I’m a broke grad student. But I’m so confident, I’m putting up $50 on him.
Here’s my bold take for the year: LeBron will win MVP and/or the championship this year. Both or at least one, but not neither. He’s adding something to his legacy this year.
Milwaukee Bucks (Crevice Predicted Wins: 48)
Projected starting lineup: Malcolm Brodgon, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Thon Maker
Most intriguing lineup: Malcolm Brodgon, Khris Middleton, Tony Snell, Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Best case scenario: Giannis is a top 3 MVP candidate, Parker comes back healthy, Thon Maker takes a step, and the Bucks top 50 wins and makes a Conference Finals appearance
Worst case scenario: Giannis doesn’t take a step forward, Jabari has lingering issues, and the Bucks struggle to .500 and lose in the first round again.
What can we expect from Thon Maker this year?
Thon Maker’s probable ceiling is a longer, taller Serge Ibaka, which grades out as an extremely useful center in the league. Let’s take a look at Maker’s playoff statistics, namely his plus/minus stats. With him on the court, the Bucks were +4.3, with a +5.8 rating on defense. Just look at this defense:
Sure, Kyle Lowry isn’t the most explosive point guard, so Maker will have trouble staying in front of ultra-quick point guards like Westbrook and Wall. But most point guards can’t stay with those two. Most teams usually like running pick-and-roll with a guard and the center, because most centers in the league can’t switch onto a guard and stay in front of him. One way teams mitigate this is by going small (like Golden State with Green at center).
But, here’s how Maker can possibly make the Bucks defensively unique: if he can continue to switch and move his feet with 30% of point guards and most wings, he’ll be an incredibly useful defensive center, given his length. The Bucks can play “small” with the lineup of Brogdon, Middleton, Snell, Giannis, and Maker, and across the line, here are the heights and wingspans:
Brogdon: 6'5", 7'0"
Middleton: 6'8", 7'0"
Snell: 6'7", 7'0"
Giannis: 6'11", 7'3"
Maker: 7'1", 7'3"
And add this to the mix: Brogdon shoots 40% from three, Middleton shoots 41–43%, Snell shoots 38–40%, and Maker shoots 38%. That’s four-around-one, with pace and space, and an crazy long defense, with three lethal perimeter defenders all with the ability to guard 1–3, with Middleton having the ability to guard fours in a pinch. Giannis can legitimately guard all five position, both on the ball, or as a weakside defender, where he excels the most. The X-factor is the albatross center, who will have the ability to switch like or better than Tristan Thompson, defend the rim like DeAndre Jordan (a little lofty comparison, but statistically similar), and stretch the floor like a slightly above average 3-and-D wing.
Here’s where Maker needs to improve: he needs to get stronger, which will, in turn, help his finishing at the rim, his post defense, and his rebounding. Giannis is a good rebounder from the small and power forward positions, which probably decreases a little need for Maker to develop his defensive rebounding skills. But given his length, he should be a positive offensive rebounder, even he’s spotting up in the corner a lot.
We should see some baby steps from Maker this year, as he starts to play more minutes with the starting lineup. We’ll see him take more threes, and if he can sustain a 38% stroke on 4 or 5 three point attempts a game and provide the hustle and defense he did in the playoffs against the Raptors, he’ll be a useful piece for the Bucks. Slowly, but surely, I’m starting to get more and more certain that Maker will develop into one of those unique “All-Star role players.”
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo a top ten player in the NBA?
Unequivocally, yes. Let’s list the players I’d take for just one year, in order:
- LeBron James
- Kevin Durant
- Kawhi Leonard
- Steph Curry
- James Harden
- Russell Westbrook
- Chris Paul
Let’s stop here for a second. I just wrote down Chris Paul, even though I think I’d want Giannis over him. But, out of respect and out of some sort of conditioning on my bias for Giannis, I’m going to put Paul in front of him.
The next group of players are Giannis, Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Am I crazy to think that I’d start my franchise with the Greak Freek over any one of those other players? Giannis has young LeBron driving ability, passes like young LeBron, and plays weakside defense like a monster. He shoots a solid 77% from the free throw line and has a mean streak, and I don’t just mean this:
Sure, he’s the worst three point shooter out of that group, but his team never was complete last year, and his team won more games than all of those players, except Draymond. And seriously… switch Giannis and Draymond. Do you really think the Warriors get worse and the Bucks get better?
Giannis is a top ten player, an MVP candidate for years to come, and as my buddy and (ex-?)podcast partner CJ can attest, I called it.
What is Jabari Parker worth next summer?
The most concise and most agreeable answer is “Not a max contract.”
But, if I were being honest, the answer is “I’m not sure.”
Let’s start with this strengths: he’s one of the more efficient young scorers in the game: 49/37/75 for his 20.1 points a game over the 51 games he played last year. That’s a three-level scorer, who can get a good shot whenever he wants to, either with his quickness or his bullish strength. But that’s where the easily discernible good probably stops.
Here’s the bad: he’s a bad weakside defender, which is fine because Giannis and Maker are great and above average. He’s a below average on-ball defender, which is fine again because Giannis and Maker are great and above average weakside defenders. He’s a bad rebounder (5.4% ORB, 15.7% TRB, and 10.6% TRB), even though he was pretty good in college (11.4% ORB, 23.1% DRB, and 17.1% TRB). But his rebounding is probably fine too, especially since he plays next to good rebounders in Giannis and Greg Monroe. Lastly, his three-point shooting isn’t as good as it should be.
And, or but, here the caveat: he’s played two full seasons over the last three seasons. That’s not terrible health, but it’s concerning. But, it’s also a double-edged sword. Maybe Parker will never be completely healthy, and this is what he is, a pretty good scorer for 60–65 games a season. Or maybe Parker hasn’t been able to consistently get his game reps, and he has a ceiling that’s higher than expected: a great scorer for 70 games a season, a perfect partner on offense for Giannis.
But given the promise of Maker, the underrated, solid play of Middleton, and the headiness of Brogdon, Parker could be a trade chip, even as an injured player. Let’s fire up the trade machine:
Who says no? If Milwaukee is being honest with themselves, they’ll realize that the stretch-four Carmelo Anthony-Paul Pierce hybrid they were expecting from Jabari is a low probability outcome. And they have some bad contracts on their books. This trade packages a salvageable prospect in Jabari with Delly and Henson’s $20 million a year over the next three years, for an expiring contract (and Keith Bogans-able starting power forward) in Trevor Booker, a really, really good backup point guard in Jeremy Lin (he’s actually really good as a 20–22 minute a game player), and another defensive-minded young prospect in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
Brooklyn can’t say no to getting another number two overall player without risking D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen, or Caris LeVert. But is that some kind of core? Russell, Parker, Allen, and LeVert? If even two of those four has above average NBA players, that’s a win for them.
Here’s the other great thing for Milwaukee: if this trade happens and Lin opts out of his last year of $12.5 million (which might be likely), that’ll be nearly $27 million in open cap space. That’s a max spot! That’s enough room for someone like DeMarcus Cousins or Paul George or dare I say, Chris Paul or LeBron James. That’s enough room for two of Avery Bradley, Wilson Chandler, and Danny Green. That makes the future for this team appreciably better by shedding three players who are net negatives.
So, here’s Jabari’s value: he’s valuable as a trade chip this year. But come this summer, his salary will balloon, and at whatever price he gets (probably around $16–20 a year), he’ll be overpaid and closer to unmovable than not.
Detroit Pistons (Crevice Predicted Wins: 40)
Projected starting lineup: Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Andre Drummond
Most intriguing lineup: Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Best case scenario: Jackson is a penetrating force again, Bradley is a huge upgrade from KCP, and Drummond play great defense. All of that leads to 45 wins and a playoff appearance
Worst case scenario: Same ol’ Pistons. 36 wins and no playoffs and a middling lottery pick.
Sadly, the Pistons are deathly boring, so this will be short.
Is Reggie Jackson underrated now?
Yes, he is. This was a leading question. He’s a top 20 point guard in the league, and thus, he is not overpaid. Go back to just the end of the 2014–15 season when he played for the Pistons and the entire 2015–16 season. Here are those stat lines:
14–15: 27 games, 17.6 points, 9.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds on 44/34/80 splits
15–16: 79 games, 18.8 points, 6.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds on 43/35/86 splits
And last year, he was injured, the Pistons were plagued with the blight of misericordia, and Stan Van Gundy might be starting to wear out his welcome as the boss and the boss’s boss.
Sure, Jackson had a bad, bad season. Sure, Ish Smith was a more valuable point guard. But Jackson’s better than that, and he’ll have a bounce back season.
What does Andre Drummond need to improve to be a top five center in the league?
Be more alert on defense to improve his weakside, help defense.
And finish under the rim. 68% from 0–3 feet is unacceptable for a center than athletic and that huge.
Drummond’s shooting will never improve, and that’s fine. But DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard is/was and was/is excellent and pretty good centers, respectively and respectively. Grammatically, that is the worst sentence I’ve ever written. This is how few fucks I give.
What does the bench rotation look like for the Pistons?
Here’s what the Pistons are packing on the bench:
Guards: Ish Smith, a bad shooting, decent defending, great distributing guard, Langston Galloway, a combo guard, an epithet I use derogatorily, and Luke Kennard, a shooter who’s going to struggle in his rookie season.
Forwards: Stanley Johnson, a 3-and-D prospect who can’t do either that well at this point of his career, Anthony Tolliver, a stretch four who likes to shoot threes and do nothing else, and Henry Ellenson, a stretch five who isn’t good enough to be a stretch four and isn’t good enough to be a center so he’s probably not good enough to be in the NBA
Centers: Boban Marjanovic, a behemoth center who’s a finesse four in a Monstar’s body.
So, in short, not promising.
Should the Pistons tank?
YES, THEY SHOULD. BLOW THIS SHIT UP, PLEASE.
Try to get some picks, however bad they are, for Jackson and Drummond. Play Kennard and Johnson as many minutes as they want and can. Lost a lot. Draft a cornerstone. That’s should be the plan.
Yet, they’ll play a good spaced-out offense, and SVG will will this team to playoff contention, and that’s no good.
Indiana Pacers (Crevice Predicted Wins: 30)
Projected starting lineup: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
Most intriguing lineup: Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Myles Turner
Best case scenario: Myles Turner turns into a top five center, Oladipo gets a shot of Hoosier adrenaline, and the Pacer sneak into the playoffs
Worst case scenario: This roster of role players have no leader and no creators and they struggle to score, but they defend to a point where they contend for the playoffs
Again, I have exactly 30 shits to give about the NBA, and I am allocating zero of them to talking about the Indiana Pacers.
Why aren’t the Pacers tanking?
Beats me. Ask Mark Titus.
In five years, Myles Turner is _____________.
In five years, Myles Turner is a top three center, but that’s damning with faint praise. A center who’s proficient in the mid-range, good from three, isn’t a great finisher or post player, and is a lethal shot blocker. If all of that improves and gains a semblance of a post game, that’s LaMarcus Aldridge plus great defense. That’s a top three center in the league.
Can this team be sneaky good and sneak into the playoffs?
Yeah, I guess so. Collison/Joseph are serviceable point guards, Oladipo/Stephenson are similar players who can play decent defense, Bogdanovic and Young will get buckets, Glenn Robinson III will be athletic, Sabonis will progress, at least a little, and Turner is a young stud. Given the right roll of the dice, the Pacers could sneak in the playoffs. But that’s a dark timeline for the NBA.
Chicago Bulls (Crevice Predicted Wins: 20)
Projected starting lineup: Kris Dunn, Dwyane Wade, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic (given he’s resigned), Robin Lopez
Most intriguing lineup: Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Denzel Valentine, Nikola Mirotic, Lauri Markannen
Best case scenario: 20 wins, terrible offense, Dwyane Wade gets bought out quickly, and the Bulls get an opportunity to find out which of their young players is worth keeping
Worst case scenario: For some reason, Wade stays and puts up good enough numbers to carry the team to 30 wins. They get a bad lottery pick and the future isn’t bright
I may actually have negative shits about the Bulls.
What was GarPax thinking with the Butler trade?
They weren’t, especially when they drafted Markannen with the 7th overall pick and then gave away the 16th.
Are any of the three young pieces of Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine, and Lauri Markannen long-term pieces?
In five years, Kris Dunn is Derrick Rose in two years. Let that sink in.
In five years, Zach Lavine is Jamal Crawford five years ago.
In five years, Lauri Markannen is Channing Frye minus the podcast.
So, in summary, no.
Which of the best prospects in the 2018 draft is the best fit for the Bulls?
Any of them. Just lose a ton and draft someone.
