The Northwest Division Season Preview
OKC contends with their new core, Minnesota, Utah, and Denver are playoff teams with Portland close in the league’s most competitive division.
Oklahoma City Thunder (Crevice Predicted Wins: 54)
Projected starting lineup: Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Patrick Patterson, Steven Adams
Most intriguing lineup: Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Patrick Patterson
Best case scenario: Carmelo Anthony and Paul George are perfect complementary pieces for Westbrook, and they challenge the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals
Worst case scenario: Melo does Melo things, George and Westbrook have some issues coexisting, and the Spurs smack them in the second round
Are you going to update your wins projection for the Thunder, given the Melo trade?
No, I will not. Mainly due to the burning-in period these three will need to coexist.
But that being said, this will be an extremely effective team, entirely based on the versatility of their top seven.
Here’s the projected starting lineup:
PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: Andre Roberson
SF: Paul George
PF: Carmelo Anthony
C: Steven Adams
Even if Westbrook can’t shake the bad habits of hero ball he perfected last season, instead of most of his bailout passes going to Taj Gibson, Domatas Sabonis, Victor Oladipo, and Doug McDermott, they’re going to Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. They have two lethal wing defenders, and Westbrook’s perimeter inefficiencies can be mitigated because he can guard the worst of the perimeter players. Anthony’s defensive limitations shouldn’t be an issue, especially when he’s expected to be the worst defender in the lineup. There’s good spacing, good shot-making, good athleticism, and good interior defense. It’s a complete lineup, with only one flaw: a minus offensive player in Roberson, but probably an net positive because of his all-world defense.
Here’s a defensive lineup that the Thunder can throw out there:
PG: Westbrook
SG: Roberson
SF: George
PF: Patrick Patterson
C: Adams
Patterson adds the three point shooting Anthony gives but provides the pick-and-roll defense and the weakside help defense Anthony is sure have brain farts about.
Now, here’s the “we’re down by 12 and we need to score every single possession” lineup:
PG: Westbrook/Raymond Felton
SG: Alex Abrines/ Westbrook
SF: George
PF: Anthony
C: Patterson
Tons of three point shooting and great spacing for Westbrook.
This positional versatility makes for an interesting team. The biggest issue will be depth. They have five solid starters, an okay backup point guard in Felton, a good one-trick pony sniper in Abrines (38.1%), a defensive combo forward in Jerami Grant, and Patterson. That seems like a decent bench, but how many of those would you really trust in the playoffs?
Is this Thunder team the best challenger for the Warriors?
That brings us here. The Warriors ran roughshod over the Thunder last year, mainly because they exploited the lack of secondary options on last year’s roster.
That’s not an issue now though. Paul George is the prototypical player you want out there to play against the Warriors. Believe it or not, Anthony, as the third option on an offense, is a perfect complementary piece. Especially if he’s staggered with George and Westbrook and spends a majority of his time, bullying bench squads from the high-post. Carmelo pulling up and jacking against LeBron is bad offense. Carmelo pulling up and jacking against Patrick McCaw is healthy and useful.
The Thunder can go really big, match the Death lineup with Patterson at center. They can go even smaller with Melo at center and Abrines in for move shooting. Their lineup versatility and channeled Westbrook hatred will make for a really insanely competitive playoffs series.
But all that being said, the Cavaliers are still the best challengers to the Warriors because they have LeBron. It’s as simple as that.
Is there another move here to add depth?
The Thunder could use another player, someone who can provide 60% of the defense Roberson provides and all of the shooting Abrines provides. The sad thing is that player (Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, etc) is not on the trading block. How about Marco Belinelli from the Hawks for Kyle Singler, some salary filler, and a second round pick? The Hawks needs to open up playing time for their young wings, and Belinelli is a great shooter who can come off the bench.
But that’s it. There’s nothing else on the market. The Thunder need to figure this out, or else their big three of Westbrook, George, and Anthony will break up, and they’ll be left with last season’s team again.
Minnesota Timberwolves (Crevice Predicted Wins: 50)
Projected starting lineup: Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns
Most intriguing lineup: Tyus Jones, Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Shabazz Muhammad, Karl-Anthony Towns
Best case scenario: 50 wins may just be the best case scenario, maybe 52 if Wiggins really improves, but not too much playoff success
Worst case scenario: The youngsters are still raw, Jimmy Butler doesn’t prove to be a good fit next to a gunner like Wiggins, and the Wolves struggle to get into the playoffs
Isn’t 50 wins a little too lofty a prediction for this team?
I could rephrase this question as, “Are you too high on the Timberwolves?” And the answer to both equivalent questions would be: yes, I absolutely am.
But here’s what Minnesota is working with, at each position:
Point guard: Jeff Teague, a quick-(ish?) point guard who knows how to play off-ball, given his time in the Hawks program and next to Paul George last year. He’ll get more looks at catch-and-shoot three-pointers, which he converted at 37.6% on 1.4 attempts a game.
Wings: Jimmy Butler is a top twelve player, a defensive gamer and a player who can create offense out of nothing. His shooting probably needs to improve a tick to accommodate for some of the offensive holes this lineup will have, but with the game on the line, there aren’t ten players in the league I’d take over Butler. Andrew Wiggins is going to benefit solely because the best defensive wing on the opposing team will be forced to guard Butler. Wiggins is a capable, even good, shooter, and his ability to hit the open three (40.6% on catch-and-shoot threes last year) and attack close-outs and finish is going to be key for this team. He needs to develop a semblance of a dump-off pass or a kick-out pass though, if this offense wants to run smoother.
Bigs: This is what interests me the most. Taj Gibson is going to be the nominal starting center for this team, even if he isn’t providing the bulk of the rim protection. I’m expecting Gibson’s role to be defensive rebounding, weakside help defense, and hitting an occasional open mid-range shot. That’s all he needs to supplement the animal Karl-Anthony Towns is. Last year, after the All-Star break, there were KAT’s numbers:
28.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 stocks on 59.7/43.4/84.1 shooting splits and 3.3 three point attempts a game.
Just let that soak in. Obviously, his defensive counting stats and instincts both need to improve, but his blocks will clearly get better with added interior help. But look at those scoring numbers and efficiency. He already is the type of inside-out scorer that Dirk was in his prime. Let that sink in. This is a 7-foot center with a 7'3.5" wingspan, scoring from all over the court with a higher efficiency than Dirk and the defensive ceiling of, say, a prime Serge Ibaka. That’s just insane. Just look at the versatility and footwork:
So, yes, it’s probably true that the Timberwolves will have some growing pains during this adjustment period and the awkward depth will present some issues, but Karl-Anthony Towns is probably the best scoring center in the game (sorry, Boogie), Butler is the NBA’s second best second option, and Wiggins is an overqualified third option. With Teague, Gibson, Tyus Jones, and Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota has a solid top seven capable of getting homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Who should be playing the most minutes at point guard?
This is actually the most interesting roster consideration Thibodeau has to make. I’m going to try and make a compelling case that Tyus Jones should play point guard whenever Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins share the court.
Tyus Jones, by no means, has shown that he deserves to play more than spot minutes at point guard. He’s a career 4 point a game scorer on 33.3% three point shooting. But as a help defending, low-usage, spot-up point guard, he fits the best next to two ball-dominant wings in Butler and Wiggins. It’s as simple as that.
Teague excels in the pick-and-roll. I’m serious. He’s actually good at it, scoring 0.98 point per possession as the ball-handler, ranking him on the 86.4th percentile. As a basis of comparison, that’s better than Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, C.J. McCollum, and Goran Dragic. But he’s worse than all four of this guards at catch-and-shoot. When Teague’s playing, you want him with the ball in his hands.
Here’s the staggering I’m interested in seeing:
Starters: Teague, Butler, Wiggins, Gibson, KAT
Bench 1: Jones, Butler, Wiggins, Gibson, Dieng
Bench 2: Teague, Jamal Crawford, Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, KAT
Closers: Jones, Butler, Wiggins, Gibson/Crawford/Muhammad, KAT
There’s a way to evenly split time at the point guard position between Teague and Jones and utilizing their skill sets optimally. Thibs needs to and probably will tinker with lineups to maximize the defensive and offensive capabilities.
Should Wiggins be resigned or traded during the season?
Wiggins is demanding, and probably will command, a max contract this summer. But what is he exactly? Like I said above, he’s an overqualified third option for the Timberwolves, who won’t have to worry about being a creating wing until Butler starts his down-tilt. But if the Timberwolves have invest max money in KAT, Butler, and Wiggins, and Wiggins stays exactly where he is, a good, but not extremely efficient, scorer and below average defender and distributor, can they really be a contender?
If there’s a package out there for a star, I’d trade Wiggins. But is there really a “stranded” star anymore?
Are the Pelicans really interested in a Wiggins, Dieng, Patton, Tyus Jones, and shitty picks package for Davis and Rondo? The answer is a resounding no.
Will Cleveland really want to trade their Brooklyn pick and Kevin Love back for Wiggins? Hell no.
Does Boston want to add to its stockpile of scoring wings by trading back some picks and Brown? That’s probably a no on both sides.
How about Wiggins and Jones for Bledsoe? That’s a little more like it, but does that really make Minnesota any better? Maybe marginally, but the future is in jeopardy with that.
There’s literally nothing out there. So, it’s up to the Timberwolves to shave a little off the max contract for Wiggins and develop him fully. If Wiggins turns into a good team defender with better ball skills and efficiency, that’s all this team needs. And that’s a bright future that’s within grasp.
Utah Jazz (Crevice Predicted Wins: 48)
Projected starting lineup: Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert
Most intriguing lineup: Dante Exum, Donovan Mitchell, Rodney Hood, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert
Best case scenario: Rodney Hood and Dante Exum take a step, Ricky Rubio facilitates a good offense, and the defense is top three with Gobert holding down the paint
Worst case scenario: The offense is horrible and the defense doesn’t match up for some reason and the Jazz struggle to make the playoffs
Are you fucking nuts? What’s the road to 48 wins for this team?
Yes, clearly. If I give someone +300 on an over/under of 98 wins combined for the Jazz and the Timberwolves, everyone will drop $1,000 on it.
But here’s the road:
- Rudy Gobert continues to be the best rim protector in the NBA since prime Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan.
- Derrick Favors returns to his bruising 16 and 8 days.
- Joe Ingles continues to be a lethal and prolific off-ball three-point shooter, shooting upwards of 43% from beyond the arc.
- Ricky Rubio facilitates a beautiful half-court offense with plenty of dribble hand-offs, curls for their shooters, and timely cuts and duck ins.
- Rodney Hood becomes Gordon Hayward without the facilitation.
- Dante Exum is a MIP candidate, giving solid scoring punch off the bench. Donovan Mitchell is a lethal defender. Together, the second unit backcourt feasts on hustle and sharp on-ball defense.
- Thabo Sefolosha and Jonas Jerebko provide leadership and good off-ball shooting. Ekpe Udoh is a solid backup center.
- Joe Johnson helps finish off games.
How many of those are unlikely? Probably only the Rodney Hood efficiency plus usage hike. But how unlikely? Not very, I’d say.
This team is going to tout one of the best defenses in the league, without a doubt. With the interior protection, enormous and heady wing defenders, and Rubio’s extremely underrated defense, the starters make sense on defense. On top of it all, they have defensive versatility, especially with their enormous starting wings and the rangy perimeter defenders coming off the bench.
The biggest thing about this deep roster is that none of their top eleven (count them) have a shoot-yourself-in-the-foot weakness.
Rubio can’t shoot. But he’ll have the ball in his hands constantly. Sag off him and he’ll create something. Every team is better with him on the court than off.
Hood’s not the best facilitator. That’s fine: he’ll just shoot every time he gets the ball.
Ingles can’t do much more than shoot threes on offense. That’s fine, he won’t have to do any more.
Favors is a little slow-footed to guard quicker forwards. The help defense will just pick up the slack.
Gobert is one-dimensional offensively, but his rolling provides incredible gravity towards the rim, something that’s necessary for Rubio.
Exum and Mitchell are young and probably offensively challenged. They’re only going to play against lesser guards, and they’ll capitalize on them with athleticism and their wingspans.
Joe Johnson is old and can’t defend. But he’s Mariano Rivera for this team. Snyder isn’t expecting him to play even 15 minutes a game.
Udoh is a roller and that’s it offensively. Again, that’s the gravity that Exum and Mitchell need offensively.
Sefolosha and Jerebko are stand-still shooters. But they give energy, defense, and spacing off the bench that’s key for the young guards.
The Jazz will vary their paces, slow it down when they play their two bigs together, and let Rubio cook. I’m excited for this team, and I’ll gladly take my loss on the over bet I’ve made on them.
What kind of offense can we expect from the Jazz?
A bad one? That’s the best answer I can think of. If the defense is top three, and solidly so, then they’ll need an offense that ranks 20–22 to comfortably make the playoffs.
They’ll probably zag and play slowly. Lots of wing movement out near the three-point arc with Hood and Ingles, with Favors and Gobert setting screens for the wings and each other inside the arc. Plenty of dribble hand-offs to the wings. But Rubio will click things into place.
I’m expecting Exum and Mitchell to play a lot of backup point guard with the starting wings out there, running pick-and-roll with Gobert. The bench units will be stabilized with Rubio-Favors two-man games with three shooters surrounding them. The depth on this team is promising, and it’ll probably be the one advantage they’ll exploit to keep the offense from becoming stale.
Can Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert coexist?
See my bit on Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
The Hill-Hayward-Ingles-Favors-Gobert lineup was +22.7 (113.8 ORTG, 91.1 DRTG) in 149 minutes of playing time. Sure, subbing in Rubio and Hood for Hill and Hayward is going to nick the offense a little. But that’s still a plus lineup given the strength of the defense.
So yes, Favors and Gobert work.
Denver Nuggets (Crevice Predicted Wins: 44)
Projected starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Most intriguing lineup: Jamaal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Best case scenario: The lack of a viable point guard isn’t an issue with two great passing big men, and the defense is improved with Millsap on the court. The Nuggets fight of home court in the first round and have a fun first round loss
Worst case scenario: The lack of a viable point guard is an issue even with two great passing big men, the defense isn’t improved, and the lack of wings leads to a low playoff spot and a first round sweep
Should the Nuggets trade for a point guard of the future?
Yes, and there’s a way to get the point guard, without mortgaging any of their future assets.
Throw in a pick from the Nuggets to the Suns, and that’s a fair trade. Energy big man and two guard prospects and a mid-late first rounder for a point guard that doesn’t fit the timeline.
Denver gets a defensive-minded point guard with athleticism who’s younger than his age. That’s exactly what they need for this lineup:
Guards: Eric Bledsoe, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray and spot minutes from Jameer Nelson
Wings: Will Barton and Wilson Chandler (hmmm…)
Bigs: Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee, Juan Hernangomez
I’d prefer to turn Plumlee and Chandler into a Jae Crowder type for a tight nine man rotation that would perfectly. We’ll get to that later.
What are your three favorite Jokic highlights?
This one, for obvious reasons:
This one, because I masturbate to a Porzingis-Jokic fantasy nightly:
And this one, because I have the belief that Jokic could be a starting NFL QB:
What does Paul Millsap actually bring to this team?
Three things, all cliched, all real: veteran leadership, defensive identity, and spacing for Jokic.
How do the Nuggets add wing depth?
I have no fucking clue. This will be one of the thorns in Denver’s side this year. Who’s guarding the best wings in the league? And what happens when a team has two good wings?
Millsap is literally the best big perimeter defender they have against the likes of LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and Carmelo Anthony. And that’s a problem.
Chandler’s a useful player for a contending team who can play him as their eighth man. But on this Nuggets team, he’s easily their starting small forward.
The problem here is that there are no Jae Crowder-type 3-and-D combo wings/fowards that are on the trading block. They’ll have to go to war with Gary Harris and Paul Millsap as their two best defenders. At least they’ll be able to outscore opponents for wins.
Portland Trailblazers (Crevice Predicted Wins: 40)
Projected starting lineup: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic
Most intriguing lineup: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic
Best case scenario: 45 wins and a six or seven seed in the West
Worst case scenario: 38 wins and the ninth seed in the West
I have one question for Portland, because it’s an all-encompassing sort of question that will address all of the factors in play in Portland.
Do the Blazers have a real future with the McCollum/Lillard core?
No. They’re both point guards who can’t guard guards. So, no the core won’t work. Trade C.J. for Boogie and figure things out from there.
