The Southeast Division Season Preview
Washington, Miami, and Charlotte will fight for playoff position, while Orlando and Atlanta are lottery-bound.
Washington Wizards (Crevice Predicted Wins: 52)
Projected starting lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
Most intriguing lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris
Best case scenario: 56 wins and a Conference Finals appearance if Wall and Beal happen to take another step
Worst case scenario: 42–45 wins and a first round exit if they have to fight an injury bug
Can the Wizards get better?
I’m not entirely sure there’s too much room for improvement here.
Wall’s probably as good as he gets. He’s a top four point guard in the league, a top three distributor, a top three athlete, and a top five finisher at his position. If he can bring his three point shooting back up to what it was in 2015–16 (from 32.7% to 35%), that’s an added dimension to his whirling dervish style. There was an interesting notch in Wall’s game last year, where his two point shooting beyond 16 feet was at 39%, but his field goal percentage fell off a cliff at 23 feet. Most players don’t experience that kind of dropoff. So, let’s say the improvement in Wall’s game comes as a slight increase in shooting and a slight decrease in missing finishes and turnovers due to figuring out a more natural pace for the game.
Markieff Morris and Gortat aren’t going to improve. Morris is a legitimate combo forward, who can play spot minutes at small-ball center, stroke threes and midrange jumpers if need be, and bully smaller players in the post. He’s a good rotation defender, but in one-on-one situations, he can get beat easily, especially in switches onto smaller guards. Morris is probably done adding more range to his shot; in fact, it’s more likely that his career year 36.2% three-point shooting from last year is going to regress a little more. Gortat is a bone-crushing screen setter, able rebounder, and decent rim protector. But he isn’t magically going to gain lateral quickness or a long-range shot. So, the starting frontcourt isn’t getting better. So, let’s say Morris and Gortat stand pat exactly, a nightly double-double from Gortat, and decent defense and a consistent 3A option from Morris.
The starting wings are the biggest sources of variance on this team. Beal turned in a magnificent offensive season, playing 77 games, and scoring 23.1 points on 48.2/40.4/82.5 shooting splits, throwing in 3.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds. There’s another step in his game, a step that stems from Game 7 in Boston in the 2017 Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Beal should be the featured offensive player on the team, with several plays run for him to catch the ball off drag screens as he weaves his way through the opposing defense. If Beal can add a better nose for making secondary plays off those curls, taking a few dribbles into the lane and darting a pass into the opposite corner to Morris or Porter. Beal’s rebounding has also been a little lackluster, after a season of stellar rebounding in college. It’s a good sign that Beal upped his scoring average to 23 points a game. He’s a star in the league now. It’s up to him to become a superstar, an All-Star game starter level player. So let’s say, Beal does that, consistent 25 points a game, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, as one of the primary shot creators when Wall sits.
Porter’s another story. He’s a 3-and-D wing, who can’t quite play stellar defense on the level of other 3-and-D stalwarts like Danny Green, Jae Crowder, or Avery Bradley. He has the size to be a combo forward and be able to guard bigger combo forwards in a pinch, and I think that he’s better as a post defender or an off-ball defender. He needs to improve in smelling out switches and fighting through screens when he guards high pick-and-roll usage ball-handlers, like Jimmy Butler and Paul George. But that’s a function of strength and reps, so it’s not inconceivable to see him develop that sense. Porter’s three-point shooting was also a revelation, hovering around nearly 48–49% at the beginning of the season, but ultimately settling in around 43–44% for the year, still good for fifth in the league overall. He’s a catch-and-shoot three point threat on offense, but that’s about it. There’s maybe a couple attacks of close-outs in his game, maybe a good swing or extra pass here and there. One of Porter’s unique features coming out of college was his ability to operate from the high post. I don’t think he’ll ever get there, but his passing ability, as a college stretch four, was intriguing. There’s a step that Porter can take as a creator off closeouts, since he’s established himself as a legitimate sniper. So, all that being said, let’s say Porter’s develops into a top five three-and-D player, stands pat at 44% three point shooter, becomes the best perimeter defender in the East, and adds solid passer to his repertoire.
The bench is the last component to this team. This year’s team lost Bojan Bogdanovic, Brandon Jennings, and Trey Burke and added Tim Frazier, Jodie Meeks, and Mike Scott. Wait, the Wizards might have a bench that makes sense. They have a steady point guard in Frazier, someone who’s not a world beater but is in the mold of the game-managing backups like Cory Joseph. Jodie Meeks, probably overpaid, is a good shooter, a facsimile of a irrational confidence guy. Mike Scott is a veteran stretch four who knows how to play the game. If Ian Mahinmi stays even 50% more healthy, and plays 60 games, that’s a good defensive backup. And lastly, Kelly Oubre has plenty of room to develop his shot (a little mechanical, shooting it from his face) and can bulk up to become a 3-and-D player. That gives the Wizards plenty of positional versatility.
So, in summary, if all of these improvements happen, that’s a superstar backcourt, a lethal 3-and-D player, an above average frontcourt, and a decent to good bench mob. That’s an Eastern Conference Finals team. So yes, the Wizards can get better.
Here’s the reality: Wall doesn’t adequately improve his shooting and continues to play too quick to sop up his athleticism before it wanes, Beal is as good as he gets (which is still really great) and maybe takes a few more shots a game, Otto Porter’s three-point shooting wanes a little even though his defensive instincts improve, Morris and Gortat regress slightly, and the bench is just an average bench. That’s a borderline Eastern Conference Finals team. The variance for this team isn’t large, and that’s because this is a damn good team.
Where do Wall and Beal rank in terms of the best backcourts in the league?
Let’s take this step-by-step:
- Golden State Warriors. There are no questions here.
- Houston Rockets. Preemptively, a duo with this kind of talent needs to be ranked this high. They can be higher or lower, depending on the season pans out.
Who’s third? I’d consider Portland, Washington, Toronto, and Oklahoma City. Since Paul George isn’t playing the two in OKC, they’re not going to be in the running. Lillard and McCollum are tiny, all-offense guards, and they’re lethal. But the lack of defense is hard to overcome. They’re out of the picture. Lowry and DeRozan aren’t as young, offensively versatile, or defensively talented as Beal and Wall.
Washington has the third best backcourt in the league, and that’s why this is such a damn good team.
What kind of production will the bench provide Washington?
We’ve touched on this earlier, but let’s take a more holistic look. Benches are useful for two main reasons — filling in for injured starters and making sure the offensive flow doesn’t drop off a cliff when key starters sit.
Tim Frazier is the best backup point guard John Wall has ever had. All that means is that the massive drop-off in playmaking when Wall catches his breath is going to be less massive. Jodie Meeks is a reasonable floor spreader, who, when healthy, has been a 40% three point shooter. I don’t think Tim Frazier and Jodie Meeks playing together against other bench backcourts is what Scott Brooks is going to want. It’s more likely that Wall and Beal’s minutes are staggered, especially their fits next to Meeks and Frazier are actually pretty good. Brooks didn’t really pick up much on minutes staggering when he had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, and Durant did mention that he preferred playing with Russ than not.
Oubre, Mahinmi, Scott, and Jason Smith are all player with different skill sets, which make it less likely that Brooks adopts a bench mob mentality. A backup five of Frazier, Meeks, Oubre, Scott, and Mahinmi isn’t too appealing, but think about this rotation scheme over a half:
Starters and Finishers: Wall, Beal, Porter, Morris, Gortat
We know how good this lineup can be, one of the best lineups in the league. Net rating of 8.1 on 1,347 minutes played together last season. That’s 16+ minutes a game total over a full 82 game slate. That’s unheard of, and that continuity is going to pay dividends.
First swap: Frazier, Beal, Oubre, Morris, Gortat
This is defensive-minded lineup with a heavy dose of Beal on offense — he can run off screens as Frazier handles or handle the ball in pick-and-rolls with the starting bigs. Morris can get some touches against a bench power forward, and Oubre provides lots of energy.
Second swap: Wall, Meeks, Oubre, Porter, Mahinmi
A classic small-ball lineup that’s predicated on switching on defense and letting Mahinmi protect the paint and letting Wall run amok for a five or six minute stretch. There’s a lot of space for Wall to operate, and maybe some kind of Curry-Draymond-esque pick-and-roll schemes could develop out of a Wall-Porter tandem.
There’s the offensive lineup: Wall, Beal, Meeks, Porter, Smith. Five shooters and not a horrid defensive lineup.
Then, there’s a defensive lineup: Wall, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Mahinmi.
There’s a crazy spaced lineup that they should trot out once in a while: Wall, Beal, Meeks, Oubre, Porter.
And then, there’s their optimized small-ball lineup: Wall, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Morris. This lineup is extremely interesting. I fucking love it. I dropped an F-bomb here. They scored 128 points per 100 possessions with a 22.4 net rating. That’s insane.
That’s the strength of this bench: they finally have a serviceable backup point guard that gives Wall some kind of rest, and they lend positional versatility to the starters. Another reason why this team is going to be damn good.
Is Ian Mahinmi the second worst contract in the league?
Here’s the swing for the Wizards: if Mahinmi is relatively healthy and can provide 60–70 games of good interior defense, decent rim-running, and adequate defensive rebounding, the Wizards are a different team altogether, a mid- to high-50 wins team. If he can’t, the frontcourt depth is awful, with Jason Smith having to play upwards of 18 minutes a game, and the Wizards are a high 40s to low 50s wins team. Paying more than $16 million a year to a center who plays 20 solid minutes and can start in a pinch over a full season might be a stretch. But paying more than $16 million a year to a center who plays 20 solid minutes over a third of a season is ludicrous. After Chandler Parsons, Mahinmi is the worst contract in the league, including Evan Turner.
Miami Heat (Crevice Predicted Wins: 44)
Projected starting lineup: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
Most intriguing lineup: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Hassan Whiteside
Best case scenario: 50 wins, especially if Justise Winslow finally takes an offensive step
Worst case scenario: Dion Waiters and James Johnson were both one-hit wonders and the team struggles to 34–38 wins and a 7 or 8 seed in the East
Why isn’t it a bigger deal that Miami botched their near future with the deals they handed out this offseason?
This should be a bigger deal. The Heat are paying $36+ million a year on the trio of James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Kelly Olynyk. Add in nearly $20 million a year for Tyler Johnson, starting next year, and the $18 million for Goran Dragic and more than $25 million a year for Hassan Whiteside, that’s a group of six with no legitimate championship team starters (okay, maybe one in Whiteside) that’s going to be owed nearly $99 million next year! This is a huge deal.
What do they even having?
Dragic is an aging point guard, who’s on the wrong side of his peak. I don’t expect to see more than one more 20–6–4 season out of him. Don’t get me wrong, Dragic is probably the most underrated point guard in the league. Just look at his stats last year: 20.3 points, 5.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 47.5/40.5/79.0 shooting. And he wasn’t an All-Star. But his numbers aren’t going to go up, and that’s disconcerting for the future of Miami.
Hassan Whiteside is a poor man’s DeAndre Jordan. If Miami had DeAndre Jordan and his rim protection, they’d be a better team. Whiteside throws up 17 and 14 on 55% shooting at the rim and blocks 2 shots a game. That’s great; he’ll be awarded with an All-Star appearance this year. But, he has no refined post game (like Jordan), isn’t a particularly instinctual post or interior help defender (unlike Jordan), and a pretty mediocre offensive rebounder (unlike Jordan). And he’s already 28 years old. He’s not improving. In fact, he’s probably declining.
Dion Waiters is a mercurial shooting guard who had an overrated season. Slightly less than 16 points a game on 42.4/39.5/64.6 shooting splits doesn’t really make for a top shooting guard in the league. Sure, he added 4.3 assists a game, which shows that he can develop somewhat of a floor game, but does Miami really see Waiter as an integral part of a playoff threat? He’s an irrational confidence guy, a sixth man brought in to carry lesser lineups against lesser lineups. Hell, that’s what he was at Syracuse. And now he’s getting $52 million over 4 years.
I don’t need to belabor the point. James Johnson is 30 and had a good season in a contract year. Not worth the $12.5 million he was handed for four straight years. Olynyk had one good game in the playoffs against a slow-footed center. Tyler Johnson can’t be a third guard on a good team.
The apologetic take on Riley’s moves this summer is that he’s old and wants to see winning basketball for the few years he has left as Miami’s president. Seriously? The same Riley who pulls out his metaphorical testicles and plops them on the table, all nine of them, is content with a feel-good team that wins 40–48 games a season? I doubt that.
I think the real story is that Miami just can’t attract the best of the best free agents anymore. It’s sad that a top three organization with a top three coach in a top three NBA city can’t woo a Kevin Durant or Gordon Hayward in free agency. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to stay relevant and good, even though you’re sacrificing your cap space in future years. But we need to dispense with the narrative that Pat Riley is a master closer of free agents.
In four years, Justise Winslow is ____________.
The saving grace for the doomed mediocrity of this Miami team is that they own the rights to a young athletic prospect like Justise Winslow for at least another six years.
The first couple of years of Winslow have been… unsavory. He’s shown amazing positional versatility at his size (6'7", 225), playing both wing positions and the power forward in small-ball lineups. He’s a heady defender, a good positional rebounder, and shows promise as a distributor. We saw all three of those features in his game at Duke, where he was easily the best player at small-ball four en route to the national championship. But, we haven’t seen an improvement in his offensive game. He’s not a good finisher (47.2% from within 3 feet), albeit being one of the best athletes at his age. He’s a terrible mid-range shooter (28.3% on non-paint two pointers). And his three point shooting is putrid (20% last year and 27.6% the year before).
He’s a young Tony Allen right now, a younger Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. That’s a valuable regular season piece, an energy man. He doesn’t gamble too often, slides his feet expertly, and has more than enough strength to contest shots in the paint. He’s great at fighting through screens and placing his feet to stop passing and driving lanes.
But Tony Allen or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t quite a piece that could be the centerpiece of a playoff team. For that to happen, he needs to drastically improve all of his offensive game. Every single aspect — his handle needs to be tightened, his playmaking skills needs to match his willingness to pass, his upper body strength needs to improve so that he can be a better finisher, and his shot needs to be revamped. Wes Goldberg of FanSided analyzed Winslow’s shooting form and concluded that his feet placement often threw off his trajectory. Comparing that to the straight up-and-down motion of Kawhi Leonard, there’s some reason to believe that Winslow can up his shooting splits, probably not to the level of Leonard, but definitely a little more.
I think, Winslow’s destiny is to underwhelm, given the hype he was given coming into the league. And that’s okay. I’m anticipating that his shooting will improve but will ultimately prove to be the Achilles heel in his game. But there’s a place for him as an important championship piece, a defensive stalwart who can facilitate and finish and maybe hit an open three if need be.
In four years, Justise Winslow is Andre Iguodala from the 2009–2010 season stuck in today’s NBA: 17/6/6 on 45/34/70 splits. That’s a great piece to have on a young team. But see above: they’re not getting young players any time soon.
Is Bloodsport the best nickname in the league?
Yes. Yes, its.
Charlotte Hornets (Crevice Predicted Wins: 42)
Projected starting lineup: Kemba Walker, Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard
Most intriguing lineup: Kemba Walker, Malik Monk, Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight Howard
Best case scenario: Steve Clifford whispers in Dwight’s ear, and we get a Dwight renaissance. 50 wins, and a home-court in the first round.
Worst case scenario: Dwight’s Dwight, MKG is still bigger Tony Allen, Nic Batum still leaves a bitter taste in your mouth, and the team is a gritty, offensively challenged grinder of a low playoff seed. 38–40 wins, and the 7 seed.
How many games will it take before I develop an aneurysm because Dwight Howard is lazy rolling to the rim?
I predict exactly fourteen games.
Dwight Howard, when he does embrace the pick-and-roll, is an amazing roll man. But he doesn’t embrace it at all. Last year’s Atlanta team had one lethal lineup, that they played roughly 126 minutes over 33 games, giving a net rating of 27.3 points (offensive rating of 121.1 and defensive rating of 93.9). That lineup featured heavy doses of Dennis Schröder-Dwight Howard pick-and-rolls on offense with good spacing provided by Tim Hardaway, Jr., Paul Millsap, and Thabo Sefolosha. In fact, four of the best five Atlanta lineups which played more than 50 minutes last season by net rating featured both Schröder and Howard.
That’s indicative of two things. The first is obvious: Dwight is still a stellar defensive anchor. The second may be a stretch, but the spread offense around Howard is still a good offense. The Hawks system and Millsap’s underrated brilliance may have inflated the offensive efficiency of these lineups, but in Kemba, Howard will have his best point guard teammate ever.
That’s actually an important thing to consider. Here’s a list of Howard’s best point guards over his career: Jameer Nelson, Rafer Alston, Steve Nash (post injuries), Jeremy Lin, Patrick Beverley, James Harden, and Dennis Schröder. I’m throwing Harden in there even though he didn’t quite take the plunge to lead guard until Howard left. But that’s one top ten “point guard” in thirteen years. He’ll get his second this year.
Kemba is a gifted pick-and-roll scorer, ranking on the 86th percentile last year with his 0.98 points per possession. Not only is he pretty efficient on his PnR touches, he’s a willing PnR ball handler, using 55% of his possessions in the scheme. That was probably easy for him last year, since Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams, and Frank Kaminsky don’t have the clout to stand in the post with their hand in the air.
Kemba’s mentality is to score first and often, but he is a willing passer. He averaged 5.5 assists a game with 1.4 secondary assists. But what’s telling is that he created more than 11 potential assists last year, and nearly 14 points off assists last year. It is hard to produce a ton of point off assists when the best player you’re passing to is an average center in Cody Zeller or an average small forward in Nic Batum.
I’m hoping for a bunch of plays like this one up here, where Howard, still a mobile center, helps Kemba attack in semi-transition by setting bone crushing screens. There’s always a way to encourage Howard to buy in to an offense where most of his touches will be on dump-offs or alley-oops. If he doesn’t buy in, in comes Cody Zeller.
The threat of Dwight Howard providing gravity moving towards the basket is going to open up Kemba’s mid-range and three-point game (39% from 10 to 16 feet from the hoop, 43% on long two range, and 40% on threes). It’s definitely going to allow Kemba to take more pull-ups, a shot that he converted at about 2% higher a clip in the early portion of the season, when Cody Zeller was fully healthy in the screen and roll game.
I’m hoping, and I admit I’m biased, that Howard realizes his worth to a team. He can be DeAndre Jordan now, scoring off putbacks and easy dunks, especially because he’ll be playing with a crafty point guard and a playmaking wing in Batum. He’s definitely going to improve the Hornets’ defense (thirteenth in the league last year), providing the Hornets a big defender who’s more mobile and more instinctual that Zeller or Kaminsky. If Howard takes a step back on his wants on the offensive side, or if Clifford can convince him to do so, this Hornets team has a high ceiling, and Howard could be an All-Star once again.
Is Malik Monk going to develop a chip on his shoulder and develop into an All-Star in Charlotte or pout about where he was drafted like Ben McLemore?
There’s another way Charlotte could become improve their average offense from last year. They were lucky that they drafted him with the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft.
I wasn’t ever too high on Malik Monk, but I expected him to be, at least, a top 10 pick. And the minute Portland traded up for the 10th pick and took Zach Collins to shore up their center depth, I rejoiced in my living room. I don’t think Malik Monk has the top scorer in the league upside that basketball savants like Bill Simmons claim he does. But I do think that he can be an effortless 20 point a game scorer like C.J. McCollum. And in a perimeter-oriented league, that’s a valuable second guard to have on a team, even if he has to come off the bench, since he can’t guard starting shooting guards yet.
What can we expect from Monk as a rookie? From draft night, he looked a little dejected that he was passed on by ten teams. But, from the fact that he was a resilient player, especially in games where he struggled. Despite Justin Jackson and his draping defense in the Regional Finals limiting Monk to one his worst 38 minutes of his college season, he came down the court and hit some huge three pointers to force the eventual Luke Maye prayer.
I hope that kind of resiliency is going to be a chip on his shoulder, and we’ll see a Damian Lillard-type rookie season from him: no shame to just jack shots and provide great offense off the bench. Against the best competition, Monk threw up seven three pointers in a game in a shitty offense (yes, all Calipari offenses are shitty) on 42.5% three point shooting.
Here’s what I hope from him: 15 to 17 points a game on 12 to 14 shots a game in 20–24 minutes a game at first and slowly ramping up to nearly 30 minutes a game. That’s probably going to be hard to get from him that amount of production, and that’s probably fine. He’ll struggle with his size, even though he does have the length to be a Bradley Beal-esque scorer at his best. But his mentality this year is going to dictate whether he’ll develop into a second scorer on a good team or a irrational confidence sixth man.
Is this all we get from Michael Kidd-Gilchrist?
I really hope not. I really, really hope not. He’s a top five perimeter defender in the league. He’s not just an athlete who lucks into 60 good defensive games a year. He’s disciplined, he’s smart, and he plays with great effort and pace. Just look at these possessions:
That’s not just good or great defense. That’s All-NBA level defense. That’s big Tony Allen defense.
What else does MKG do well? He’s one of the best rebounders and athletes at his position, which easily makes him capable of being a combo forward and guard bigger forwards, especially if they’re bad post players. He’s a good finisher (62.1% at the rim last year, which puts him on par with those all defense wings like Allen and Andre Roberson). He’s actually and surprisingly not a bad midrange shooter, too (46.7% from 10 to 16 feet, and around 34% on long twos). There are some ways the Hornets feature him off the ball to mitigate his offensive, with duck ins on penetration instead of spot ups and quick attacks of close outs. But his shot mechanics is awful.
Here’s the good news: MKG isn’t even 24 yet. He has time to pull that elbow square with the rim so that jumper’s on line. And he has time to finally not fall-away on 89% of his jumpers (that’s a made up stat).
Here’s an odd realization of the next three years of MKG: he doesn’t improve at all. He gives the Hornets 10–12 points a game, 7–8 rebounds a game, and stellar perimeter defense. What’s that worth? What Roberson got this offseason? That’s not a bad piece to have. The Hornets can always surround MKG lineups with lots of shooting, especially now that they have Monk.
Here’s the offensive lineup with MKG: Kemba, Monk, Batum, MKG, Kaminsky. Above average to great shooting from all four positions around MKG.
Here’s the defensive lineup: Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Batum, MKG, Dwight. Switching from all the frontcourt positions, good rangy wing defenders, and decent spacing.
Here’s the crazy bench team that can just run other second teams off the floor: MCW, Monk, Lamb, MKG, and Zeller. Unbridled youth, high energy defense, it’s a lineup that doesn’t and shouldn’t make sense, but I think will be very effective.
But imagine if MKG can get to even 30% three point shooting overall and 35% from the corners. That’s Mbah a Moute level shooting. That’ll probably add a few more points to his average, without having to expend any more energy that he already does. That’s probably most self-actualized version of MKG: a healthy elite perimeter defender who is a relentless defender and finds buckets off dump-offs, quick drives to the basketball, and maybe a three or two from the corner. That’s a pivotal piece on a playoff team, one that can complement what Charlotte is attempting to do this year.
Orlando Magic (Crevice Predicted Wins: 34)
Projected starting lineup: Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Most intriguing lineup: Elfrid Payton, Mario Hezonja, Jonathon Simmons, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac
Best case scenario: Good defense, terrible offense, and the Magic are a bottom five team in the league with 28 wins
Worst case scenario: Great defense, below average offense, and the Magic sneak into the playoffs with 36–38 wins
Why did the Magic pass on Dennis Smith, Jr.?
We’ve talked ad nauseum about my love for Dennis Smith. If I had the sixth overall pick, a couple of theoretically shooting wings in Mario Hezonja and Evan Fournier, and an in-built pick-and-roll partner in Aaron Gordon, I’d have drafted Smith without thinking twice. Sign Kelly Olynyk and try to dump Payton for some kind of assets, and that’s a team I’d be excited about.
Regardless, I brainstormed and here are the two reasons I can come up with:
The Magic are committed to Elfrid Payton.
Payton is going to be a little more than 23 and a half years at the beginning of this season, and over the past three years, he’s steadily improved his offensive game. His assists per 36 minutes have stood pat at around 7.9 a game, but his scoring per 36 minutes has improved by 2.5 points every year, up to 15.6 points per 36 minutes last season. His overall shooting efficiency jumped steadily last year, up to 49.3% effective field goal, but his three point percentage cratered back down to 27.4%, possibly because he starting taking a half more threes a game.
There’s reason to believe that Payton will be some kind of bigger Rajon Rondo type, a defensive-minded point guard who’s first instinct is to facilitate or find a lane to the tin. If Payton can develop his mid-range game and improve his passing in the pick-and-roll, he can pair well with the ultra athletic forwards and bigs he has.
A big combo of Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac was too interesting to pass up.
I think this is the biggest reason though. Offensively, a forward tandem of Isaac and Gordon isn’t anything to write home about. Gordon’s an offensive rebounder, pick-and-roll roll man, and maybe he’ll develop a mid-range jumper soon enough. Isaac’s offensive ceiling is probably some mix of Rudy Gay and Danillo Gallinari, and I mean that as a complement. He can be the third scorer on a team if he develops well.
Defensively though, that’s wholly another story. Gordon and Isaac can turn out to be like Draymond-KD, an athletic power forward who can rebound with the best of them and switch onto everyone and a rangy wing defender who, in a pinch, can be a center, at least defensively. Let’s say the Magic suck again, which is highly likely, and they land one of the prized wings in next year’s draft, either Miles Bridges, Michael Porter, Jr., or Luke Doncic. That’s three wings, with widely different games on offense and widely different body types. That makes for versatility that most young teams can’t offer. And versatility leads to wins.
Can this year be the Mario Hezonja reclamation project year?
Who really fucking knows? I was excited on Hezonja as much as the other guy, but his shooting got worse all over the board, his playmaking worsened, and he was a defensive sieve. He did have a nagging injury that bothered his play. I’m hoping he’s got a little something else to start his development, at least become what Dion Waiters was last year in his peak.
What’s the best offense the Magic can put together?
This is the best offense: Payton running pick-and-roll with Aaron Gordon, with Vucevic on the baseline or the opposite elbow, with Fournier and Terrence Ross spotting up. There’s plenty of gravity from the wings and Gordon rim-running. Here’s the issue: that’s a below average offense. And that’s why the Magic are going to be horrible again this year.
Atlanta Hawks (Crevice Predicted Wins: 18)
Projected starting lineup: Dennis Schröder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, Dewayne Dedmon
Most intriguing lineup: Dennis Schröder, DeAndre’ Bembry, Taurean Prince, John Collins, Mike Muscala
Best case scenario: Schröder limits his mistakes and they can cobble together a good defense and win 28–30 games
Worst case scenario: The offense is passable, the defense is stellar, John Collins is the Rookie of the Year, and they barely miss the playoff with 38 wins, and they don’t get a top eight pick in a top heavy draft
Elfrid Payton/Aaron Gordon pick-and-roll or Dennis Schröder/Dewayne Dedmon pick-and-roll?
These are the important questions plaguing the NBA this season. I think the edge actually goes to Schröder/Dedmon — a better offensive point guard with some modicum of a mid-range game and an enormous center with mobility. But everything else on the Hawks team… yuck.
In five years, John Collins is a ____________.
This is the bright spot on this team, and that too is the 19th overall pick in this past year’s draft. John Collins is, at his best, Blake Griffin minus his passing game, a power forward who’s best free throw line down and in pick-and-roll schemes. At worst, he’s Thomas Robinson, athletic, a little undersized, and a decent bench piece. I’m going the split the difference. In five years, John Collins is peak J.J. Hickson, putting up around 14 points and 9 rebounds on 56–59% field goal percentage, while being a defensive liability.
Why does Ersan Ilyasova get traded so much?
Theoretically, he’s a good defensive-rebounding, stretch four. In practice, he’s not a good rebounder and he’s a below average three point shooter. That’s why teams that have him trade him and teams that need someone like him trade for him.
Is Alpha Kaba the best name in the league?
It might be. I don’t want to watch any Atlanta games this year.
