The Southwest Division Season Preview
Houston and San Antonio will dominate, but the eventual bottom three teams have the most intriguing questions.
Houston Rockets (Crevice Predicted Wins: 58)
Projected starting lineup: Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela
Most intriguing lineup: Chris Paul, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, James Harden, Clint Capela
Best case scenario: 60–62 wins, close loss to the Warriors in the conference finals
Worst case scenario: 55 wins with an injured Chris Paul, loses in the second round to the San Antonio Spurs
How good can this offense be?
I’ve already concluded that James Harden and Chris Paul as your backcourt won’t fail. If they can’t coexist on the court, D’Antoni can just minimize their time together by staggering their minutes. There’s been enough of that talk.
So, under the assumption that D’Antoni and company find a way to complement Paul and Harden well, I can’t even fathom how crazy this team can get. The way to stymie the Rockets last year was to stick a great perimeter defender on Harden and then stay home on shooters and hope for the best. That’s exactly what the Spurs did with him in that Game 6 with Danny Green and Harden laid an egg.
Now, you need two great perimeter defenders and even then you may have to worry about another above average creator burning you. Just looking at the projected lineup: Paul, Harden, Ariza, Anderson, Capela, Williams, Gordon, Tucker, Mbah a Moute, and Nene. You can shuffle those ten players around for lineups (yes, plural) that can score 1.3 points per possession.
That brings me to my most intriguing lineup I listed above. That’s four above average to elite creators surrounding an elite pick-and-roll roll man (1.14 points per possession as the roll man). The only way teams can match up with that 2005–06 Villanova-type roster is to throw out another four perimeter players around a big. But how many teams have four players capable of adequately guarding four perimeter players. The answer? Golden State. Oh, fuck.
Can this team shift into a heady defensive team?
I think that’s the way this Rockets team can match up best with the vaunted Golden State small-ball lineup. If you shuffle around those ten players the Rockets have, you can draw a lineup of Paul, Harden, Capela, Ariza, and Tucker or Mbah a Moute. They’ll sacrifice a good amount of offense by adding a player who’s at best a good corner three-point shooter in place of Anderson’s spacing, but against the Warriors, it’s been tried and tested that defensive-minded, switching lineups give you the best win probability.
Tucker/Mbah a Moute and Ariza are enough to guard Durant and Iguodala adequately. Tucker, despite his height, loves getting into shooters’ space and harassing them on the catch, baiting gifted offensive players into bad shots. Mbah a Moute’s best ability is his switching, and since he’s basically a power forward at this point of his career, that makes him a great defender for the modern NBA. Ariza is the worst perimeter and interior defender out of these three, but his overall three point shooting, his ability to move the ball, and his ball-handling can mitigate some of the offensive deficiencies of playing a Tucker/Mbah a Moute type. Obviously, the Warriors will try to marginalize Tucker or Mbah a Moute by sticking Iguodala or Druant on them and just letting them roam as they do best. But as we’ve seen with the Clippers the past couple of years, Mbah a Moute has developed into a passable corner three-point shooter (41.5% last year) and knows to attack the close-out before the close-out vaporizes to continue the offensive action. Tucker can take notes from his combo forward mate, and that’ll help the offense gain back those hundredths of a point per possession.
The X-factor here is Clint Capela. He’ll be, without a doubt, the best player over 6'9" (not including Durant) in a series matchup between Houston and Golden State. This is him, working off passes from Pablo Prigioni:
That’s an advanced pick-and-roll action for a kid (that’s from 2015). He slips the screen and is immediately ready for a bounce pass from a savvy veteran. And even though he’s probably lost a little bit of his explosiveness, he’s a great finisher (72.5% FG near the rim). Both he and I are looking forward to many more plays like that.
Let’s go back to the Iggy or Durant on non-scorer scheme the Warriors are likely to use as trump card for the best Rocket’s multifunctional lineup. Iggy or Durant as the free safety is going to help off his man, who’s likely to be spotting up from the corner. Capela has to either quickly attack the rim and Green before the help comes or develop an ability to hit Tucker (45.5% shooter from the corner) immediately for create a cascade of confusion from the Warriors defense. Capela’s in a contract year, and he has to make his case of a max contract. That’s promising as the third most important player on this roster.
What’s the worst case scenario for Houston?
Recall that we like being negative here at The Crevice.
Imagine this darkest timeline: Chris Paul gets injured and is lost for a majority of the meat of the season, a low-key not unlikely realization of this season. Harden and D’Antoni offense gets the team to another 55+ win season and the second seed in the West.
Paul comes back for a few games at the end of the season, and the chemistry issues aren’t too noticeable, especially since D’Antoni decides to rest his workhose Harden, and Paul is able to navigate this system of pick-and-rolls with ease. The playoffs come along, and they struggle but win a tough six game series against a young, upstart Utah Jazz team in the first round. Next, they face the San Antonio Spurs and get worked in five games. Paul chirps at Harden, and the two botch an end-of-game situation in the series clinching Game 5. Paul leaves in free agency, and the Rockets are left with a team saddled with no cap space and exactly where they are right now, without even an appearance in the Conference Finals against the Warriors to show for the Chris Paul experiment.
That’s the worst timeline. And yes, it’s not a horrid realization of this season: a ton of wins from a fun and exciting offense, Harden in MVP consideration, okay playoff standing. But the team is no different, and the Warriors still reign in the West. It’s purgatory that’s most depressing, not hell in itself.
Does Carmelo Anthony make sense for this team?
There’s been a lot of chatter about a Melo to Houston trade. Personally, I don’t see it happening, especially because the best asset the Rockets have is paramount for their defensive success. But even if the Knicks agreed to a haphazard mix of Ryan Anderson, non-guaranteed contracts, and middling to low first round and second round picks, I’m not sure that Melo fits alongside this team.
Olympic Melo is apparently the player the Rockets are interested in trading for, not Hoodie Melo who has “no conscience” or regular Melo who plays no defense and engulfs the ball like a black hole. The issue with Olympic Melo is that he’s the third or fourth offensive option against a team that usually doesn’t even have one player who can guard him. Against the elite teams in the NBA, Olympic Melo is going to be guarded by Draymond Green or Kevin Durant and LeBron James and Jimmy Butler, not Koko Archibong or Victor Khryapa.
Don’t get me wrong, Olympic Melo can still be successful against great NBA teams. What made him successful wasn’t inferior talent. It was actually being set up by good playmakers, the likes of which he hadn’t ever played with (sorry old man Chauncey Billups, you’re no Chris Paul or prime James Harden).
He would receive passes right in his sweet spot from 20–22 feet and he’d instantly jack up a shot. Or he’d get the ball at the high post, take a couple dribbles and pull-up in the lane or get right to the hoop. Quick, definitive scoring moves and trusting his instincts. None of this pound the rock and pull up for contested mid-range shots that have an expected value of 0.6 points. If Melo can take advantage of the open space created by Paul and Harden-led pick-and-roll action, he will be a tremendous addition.
Though I can’t count out Darryl Morey in swinging a deal for Melo, I don’t see a conceivable package right now for him. Given the low probability of the trade actually materializing and the low probability that Melo would fully embrace a usage in the mid-teens, I’m not certain if we’ll see Olympic Melo tearing in up deep into May and June.
San Antonio Spurs (Crevice Predicted Wins: 54)
Projected starting lineup: Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol
Most intriguing lineup: Dejounte Murray, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge
Best case scenario: 60 wins, close loss to the Warriors in the conference finals, and a stellar seasons for Aldridge so that he opts out
Worst case scenario: 50–52 wins, first round exist against a more athletic, younger team
What’s the explanation for that Pau Gasol contract?
I’ve been trying to wrack my brain as the reasoning behind Gasol’s new 3 year-$48 million, and here are three tenuous explanations I could muster:
‘Pau Gasol’s contract can be used to make trades for Kyrie Irving easier.’
Let me try to explain this. The best assets that the Spurs have are Aldridge’s short-(ish) contract, Derrick White, Dejoute Murray, and Danny Green. But the catch is that, even though Aldridge has under-performed as a Spur (not really though), if the Spurs make a trade for a player of Kyrie’s caliber, they want to keep a big like Aldridge as a foil to the small-ball lineups of Golden State. Aldridge as a second option is great, Aldridge as the definite third option and safety valve for a Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard-led offense is unimpeachably perfect.
So, the Spurs resigned Gasol to that contract to add another contract that can be added along with Green, Murray, and White and some picks to make some kind of trade with Cleveland semi-palatable.
And yes, I understand the counterargument: Gasol on his original one year-$16 million was more palatable as a trade chip for Cleveland, but it’s still some kind of argument.
‘Pau Gasol is actually worth $16 million a year over two years.’
Gasol’s not a starting caliber center anymore, that’s for sure. But given his partial guarantee on the last year, the money basically becomes a two year contract at that yearly amount. And as a team that is centered around two big lineups, it’s conceivable that an above average big who’s an above average rim protector in the regular season, a good passer, and a good player below the arc is worth that much money. He’s probably a great locker room guy and a good mentor for the younger players on this team, especially Davis Bertans.
The counterargument is also easy: he’s not worth that much money over that many years when the alternative was that much money over only one year.
‘The Spurs are a family organization that takes care of its players, especially if it means that they’ll have down years.’
This is the best explanation. The Spurs couldn’t hit on Lowry or Hayward or George Hill, and so they just gave Gasol a lot of money to thank him for agreeing to a lower salary should they sign a max player.
But here’s the ulterior motivation: 2019 has some good complementary free agents for Kawhi Leonard. There’s Jimmy Butler, which would create a crazy perimeter duo that could dominate defensively and create effectively for a team. There’s Kemba Walker, which would just be fun to watch. And then there’s Klay Thompson, which could be a hilarious masterstroke from Popovich, both dealing a huge blow to Golden State and supplementing their offense as one of the best in the league. And then there’s Kyrie, should they miff on trading for him.
The Pau Gasol contract is an outward show of support for their players, saying, “Come try to win with us, and we will take care of you, regardless of whether we win or not.” This is the anti-Belichickian approach to free agency. They show loyalty to aging players and don’t drop players the minute they start to decline. The Pau Gasol contract is a stealth seduction move for star players who value loyalty and structure.
Just how good is Kawhi Leonard?
This is only relevant because of Penny Hardaway.
In most cases, a top four perimeter scorer in the league and the best perimeter defender in the league are superstars. The catch here is that they’re the same person. Sit down, Penny Hardaway. Your fifteen minutes of NBA relevancy were over in the mid-90s. (Side note: I probably should too, since I’ll never be relevant…)
Do the Spurs even have a top twenty-five point guard on the roster?
Last year was probably the last (barely) passable year of Tony Parker, playing essentially splitting time with Patty Mills at the point. Parker announced recently that he’s trying to make it back by mid- to late-December. So that’s about 30–35 games of developmental time for a backcourt of Mills, Murray, and Derrick White, which is key for the Spurs future.
But, here’s the issue. Every other team in the playoffs last year had a above average to good point guard: Thomas, Irving, Lowry, Wall, Schröder, Brogdon (ehh), Teague, and Rondo (ehh again) in the East, and Curry, Beverley, Paul, Hill, Westbrook, Conley, Lillard. I can argue that Parker was the worst starting playoff point guard last year, and even though it didn’t hurt the Spurs, as they performed as well as anyone could have imagine in the playoffs, it limits their ceiling. Parker has lost his quick first step, and his lack of quickness renders him ineffective at finishing at the rim, shooting his worst position from within 10 feet since his rookie season. Add in the fact that he’s never been a knockdown three point shooter or a good distributor in pick-and-roll situations, Parker’s no longer someone you can rely on for consistent production.
Four years, $50 million was a discount apparently, but it’s a fair salary for Patty Mills, the nominal starting point guard. But the issue here is that Mills is, at his best, a great backup point guard. And that’s his ceiling. He’s a change of pace point guard, someone who spots up from three and can run some pick-and-roll. But relying on him for 27+ minutes of production every game is going to lead to some offensive inefficiency.
And then there’s Dejounte Murray, who played heroically against the Warriors in the playoffs last season.
He has an awkward looking mid-range down floater and runner game that is reminiscent of young Tony Parker. But he has a huge wingspan and great size for a point guard. But given his putrid Summer League performance with inefficient offensive performance that showed little to no growth on his perimeter shot, it’s apparent that he’ll need a lot of more time to develop.
The Spurs have a huge lineup advantage against most teams in the league with a frontcourt that features two potent scorers like Leonard and Aldridge, but their backcourt, possibly the most important positions in the league, are lacking. They need to find a way to improve that if they want to continue to contend in future years.
What’s the best return for moving Aldridge? Is it even worth trying to move him?
The Spurs signed Aldridge to carry the Tim Duncan torch. Those are huge shoes to fill, and I’ll be honest, he’s done a decent job. He’s given the Spurs around 17 or 18 points a game, 8 rebounds on his career average 49% effective field goal percentage and top-of-the-league rim protection. There’s no denying it, Kawhi Leonard’s presence on the court doesn’t markedly decrease the inside shooting percentages of Aldridge’s man.
So, I think it’s best to first take a look at that second question. Aldridge garnered a lot of criticism in last season’s playoffs simply because he garnered a lot of attention. The idea that, in Leonard’s absence, that Aldridge could be expected to put up 40-20s and carry a team who’s second best player was Jonathon Simmons is an asinine symptom of the sissified Mamba mentality of the stupid NBA media. Aldridge, at this point of his career and in this small-ball league, is a slow-footed center moonlighting for Popovich as a power forward 69% of the time.
There’s still time before the Spurs have to make a decision about Aldridge’s future with the Spurs. Playing him at center next to two smaller forwards (as in Leonard and Anderson) might be a better option. The loss of Dedmon pretty much locks in the big man rotation for this team to be Aldridge, Gasol, and Lee, with Bertans giving spot minutes. Employing Anderson as the nominal power forward next to Aldridge might unlock him. He’ll still get his post-ups against like-sized bigs, a matchup that Aldridge likes. But it’ll also give Aldridge significantly more space to operate from the high and low posts. The Spurs can then rely on the Lee-Gasol tandem to bully benches.
But say the Aldridge stink continues to pervade the San Antonio locker room. What is he even worth on the market? If legitimate superstar wings in their primes can only rake in a couple prospects and/or a single draft pick upgrade (not additional pick), what can an aging big man who needs the ball to be effective rake in? Spoiler alert: it’s not much at all. And at this point, if San Antonio is trading Aldridge, it’s essentially to dump salary.
Here’s a trade that make a little sense for both parties involved:
Milwaukee actually likes having a traditional big in there and Aldridge is a slight upgrade over Monroe. That additional year might make resigning Jabari and Khris Middleton a little sticky, but slotting in Aldridge in Monroe’s role is actually interesting. The Spurs get a semi-decent young prospect in D.J. Wilson (who’s masquerading as a fake 2K creation on ESPN’s Trade Machine) and Greg Monroe to play in their big man abomination. But they have the guarantee of being free of Aldridge’s contract this summer, which opens up a lot of options in free agency.
But the teams that could and would want Aldridge are severely limited. Most teams are content with their big man depth. Even Phoenix, the other suitor for Aldridge’s talents, doesn’t have any expiring contracts that the Spurs want or want sacrifice or crowd their frontcourt youth.
I think there’s a solemn resignation among Spurs fans that this is their immediate future: good to great regular seasons mostly due to Kawhi’s greatness, but playoff flameouts because of their lack of top-level athleticism, especially in response to Golden State’s speedier lineups. The Spurs have some interesting (I used that word to be nice) young players in Anderson and Bertans who could shift Aldridge down low a position, and those options need to be explored. But Aldridge probably isn’t going anywhere, and that may not be the worst thing.
New Orleans Pelicans (Crevice Predicted Wins: 36)
Projected starting lineup: Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Most intriguing lineup: Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Best case scenario: Davis and Cousins gel brilliantly, 48–50 wins, close loss in the second round to the Warriors
Worst case scenario: Davis and Cousins don’t gel, but they stay in playoff contention all year, thought they eventually miss out. Cousins leaves in free agency and they get nothing back for him.
How do DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis co-exist?
We all know the subsetted statistics from the end of last regular season: the two big tandem was, pace adjusted, a top fifteen offense and top fifteen defense. But they played 0.500 ball over the last 12 games with both Davis and Cousins in the lineup. And the teams they beat in those 12 games? Minnesota, Memphis, Denver, Dallas, Sacramento, and Portland. I count two playoff teams, both of which weren’t really the class of the Western Conference. Here was the statistical snapshot in those six wins: high rebound totals, high points in the paint totals, low turnover percentages, plenty of shot attempts. So, basically bully the other team inside into oblivion, like a Kingler with his claw.
And that looks like what they’re trying to do. Two of the five best players in their rotation are point guards, so the idea is to clearly always pair a better than rotation point guard with their bigs to facilitate their interior presence. Holiday isn’t the best of pass-first point guard, and that’s probably good because the team sorely needs perimeter scoring. Rondo, on the other hand, will make it his life mission to get ten assists in the 20 to 22 minutes he’ll play, force-feeding Boogie in the post and finding Davis on those curls to the elbow he loves.
But the crux of whether this two tandem hinges on interior passing. Two of the best twin tower approaches in history are Kevin McHale and Robert Parish on the 80s Celtics and Chris Webber and Vlade Divac on the early aughts Kings. This is horrid footage, but it’s exactly what I’m talking about:
DeMarcus Cousins is both quicker and stronger than most centers in the league, which makes it reasonable to expect him to be one the Pelicans’ secondary playmakers after the two point guards. The 4–5 pick-and-roll was one of those schemes that was high school touted in the couple of days leading up to Cousins’s debut with New Orleans. But it’s more conceivable to hand the ball to Cousins, the better distributor (25.8% assist rate last year as opposed to Davis’s 11.1%), and let him facilitate for Davis. And given the unavoidable fact that Cousins will always have some advantage over his individual matchup, it makes a pick-and-roll with him as the handler much more interesting.
What’s even more intriguing for this tandem is the case in which both Davis and Cousins take the leap to be above average three point shooters, not just for their positions, but overall. Cousins is already there, I think; he’s was at 36% on a shade over 5 attempts a game last year, which puts just above the league average mark. Davis needs some improvement, as he’s at around 31% over the past few years on 2.5 attempts a game. If Davis can bump that up to 35% on 3 or more attempts a game, that’ll provide some much needed space, especially given the shooting liabilities that are their wings. There is some promise with Davis’s stroke, especially since he shoots at around 42% on long twos, a staple of his offensive game.
Defense won’t be a problem for this team. Davis can anchor a defense all by himself, and Cousins is an underrated rim protector. With Holiday defending the point of attack, the defense is primed to finish in the top ten again in efficiency. The offense is the issue. There’s a lot to work with in this offense. If Davis and Cousins can effortlessly and cooperatively get to around 55 or 58 points a game combined, it’ll ease the burden for the rest of the squad.
The rest of the squad, however, is going to be the issue.
How serious are Pelicans’ wing issues?
In short? Extremely serious. Here are the wings that New Orleans has on their roster, and I’m calling any non-point guard perimeter player a wing: Ian Clark, Charles Cooke, Jordan Crawford, Solomon Hill, Darius Miller, E’Twaun Moore, Quincy Pondexter. I count three legitimate NBA players out of those six names. The issue is that when you look at each name individually, none of them stack up to be a solid rotation player.
Here’s another way to think about it: Jrue Holiday, the $125 million man the Pelicans signed this offseason to be the starting point guard, is probably the best option at shooting guard. Here’s yet another horrifying take: it’s conceivable that by the end of the season Frank Jackson is a key rotation player on the wing, and he’s also a point guard.
It’s a crutch of an argument to say that Davis and Cousins can mitigate any defensive issues on the wings. How are the Pelicans supposed to guard teams with big guards and wings? For example, take the Utah Jazz, a team the Pelicans will be fighting with for one of the last three playoff spots. When faced with a perimeter trio of Rubio (big point guard), Rodney Hood (huge shooting guard), and Joe Ingles (big wing), who’s guarding who? I’d guess Hill on Ingles, Moore on Hood, and Holiday on Rubio, pitting the matchups directly. But Hood’s going to pull up right in Moore’s face with his 4 inch height advantage. Hill, even with his stocky, 6'6" frame, still gives up a couple inches to Ingles, so his closeouts on Rubio or Gobert kickouts will be a little less effective.
I’d love to see that Davis-Cousins tandem in the playoffs, but they’ll have to shoulder a huge load to mitigate the points they’ll give up on the wings.
If the Pelicans’ plans don’t go as planned, what’s the next step?
We like being negative here at The Crevice. So, let’s consider a dark, but actually not horrid, timeline. The Pelicans come out the gate flat. Davis and Cousins play really well, putting up their usual 25+ points a game and 10+ rebounds a game. But Holiday and the wings aren’t enough to provide a stable offense to match the above average defense. It’s my opinion that if the team isn’t definitively in the playoffs with some kind of promise of winning at least a round, it may be time to send Boogie off for some kind of return.
But what’s half a season or so of Cousins worth on the open market? Based on what a year of Paul George or two years of Jimmy Butler returned, it’s really not the much. On top of it all, a year and a half of Cousins already was worth Tyreke Evans (yuck), Buddy Hield (meh), Langston Galloway (bleh), Justin Jackson (hmm…) and Harry Giles (uhhh…). I can’t see a deal out there than makes sense for Cousins.
On top of it all, the salaries that need to be moved so that the Pelicans can have enough room to sign just one passable wing are immovable. It’s crazy to think that the Omer Asik contract is holding up the development of this team. The Pelicans are a Dion Waiters or a Maurice Harkless away from being a solid playoff team, and the almost $23 million committed to Omer Asik and Solomon Hill are holding them from it.
So, in that gray scenario, the best course of action is to simply stand put. The hope of several more years of Cousins is much better than a cobbled together package of a couple low potential young prospects and a middling first round pick.
But the recent Kyrie Irving to the Celtics swap opens up an interesting trade scenario for the Pelicans. If the Nets are struggling to integrate their backcourt of Russell, Crabbe, and Lin, the Pelicans absolutely needs to consider flipping Cousins for that 2018 Brooklyn pick. Cleveland would probably love to do that.
How about that trade up there, with the Brooklyn pick going to the Pelicans? We’ll revisit this from the Cleveland side much later, but the Pelicans should do this. They’ll get their starting shooting guard, which may not be saying much given the current state of their wings, and Frye’s contract is expiring. That Brooklyn pick will probably yield at least Mohammad Bamba and maybe someone like Luka Doncic or Michael Porter Jr. or Miles Bridges. That’s a much brighter future for the Pelicans.
Memphis Grizzlies (Crevice Predicted Wins: 36)
Projected starting lineup: Mike Conley, Wayne Selden, Chandler Parsons, JaMychal Green (tentative), Marc Gasol
Most intriguing lineup: Mike Conley, Troy Daniels, James Ennis, Chandler Parsons, Marc Gasol
Best case scenario: Grit and Grind finds another way to squeak into the playoffs and Mike Conley finally gets an All-Star nod
Worst case scenario: Injuries plague the core of Conley and Gasol and they stumble to 30 or less wins, especially terrible considering that they don’t own their own pick
Does David Fizdale finally make the Grizzlies transition to an up-tempo, offense-first team?
The answer should be yes. Gone are the days where this team depends on its defense to not only control the pace, but also create its offense. They have two top twenty players in the league, and that’s enough to cobble together a great offense. Conley’s definitively in his prime, and he’s unquestionably a top eight point guard in the league. His performance against the Spurs proved it. His game has it all: he starts it off with a heady floor game which he can use to facilitate to his bigs, he can finish on layups and floaters with both hands, his shooting has improved considerably (40.7% on threes) both on pull-up jumpers and on spot-ups.
Gasol took his game to a new stratosphere, adding four three point attempts a game to his arsenal. And he converted at a 38.8% clip! That’s not insignificant. In fact, among all qualified centers (100+ three point attempts last season), he ranked second in accuracy by a wide margin. (Side note: Paul Gasol was the best three point shooter among players who took 100+ threes last year at 53.8%. That’s among all positions, not just centers. The Gasol brothers are still alive and kicking.) Gasol’s interior defense has dropped a little, but he’s still one of the most positionally sound centers in the league. He doesn’t collect the blocks and defensive rebounds that Rudy Gobert and/or DeAndre Jordan do, but he limits interior efficiency; that’s all you can ask for.
Add in the theoretically versatile forwards, JaMychal Green, a defensive rebounder with three-point range, and healthy Chandler Parsons, a good shooter with some secondary playmaking skills, and one of the young-ish wings they have at the last spot, and that’s the makings of a great offense. They have spacing from every position, they have continuity with the two mainstays, and they have a defensive identity, at the point of attack with Conley, and on the backline, with Gasol.
Even with bringing Randolph off the bench last year and the added spacing of Gasol’s shooting, the Grizzlies were 28th in the league in pace and 18th in the league in offensive efficiency. This may be the year that Fizdale finalized the pivot away from Grit and Grind, especially because his rotation is made up of true points (Conley and Mario Chalmers), true centers (Gasol and Brandan Wright), and positionally ambiguous wings (Parsons, Troy Daniels, James Ennis, Tyreke Evans, and Dillon Brooks).
Tyreke Evans could also be a crux for this team. In a rehabilitation season, Evans should look to be the sixth man for this team, running nothing but pick-and-roll with Brandan Wright with shooters spreading the floor for him. If Evans can create a league average offensive lineup with the bench, the Grizzlies could have something interesting. It’s basically two identical lineups playing in shifts: Conley/Gasol or Evans/Wright pick-and-rolls surrounded by a cavalcade of average wings who can shoot a little. The pieces are there for a playoff team.
But the health isn’t. And that’s where the timeline goes dark for the Grizzlies.
Are any of the Grizzlies’ young players good enough to be starters?
Let’s go one by one:
Deyonta Davis — a long, athletic big who averaged 1.6 points and 1.7 rebounds in 6.6 minutes a game over 36 total games last season. He’s got a little DeAndre Jordan in him, but I doubt he’ll ever get there. He needs to improve his help defense instincts, his finishing at the rim, and his overall activity on the boards. At best, he’s probably an off-the-bench energy guy, which is actually great value for a second rounder.
Verdict: Nope, definitely never going to be a starter
Wade Baldwin — touted as a long-armed, perimeter defender who has a great three-point stroke. His rookie stats: 3.2 points, 1.8 assists, 0.5 steals on 31.3/13.6/83.8 splits in 12.3 minutes a game over 33 total games. Yuck. Baldwin probably has the high upside of any of these young players, but he’s a backup point guard at best, much like Cory Joseph.
Verdict: Nope, definitely never going to be a starter
Dillon Brooks — slow-footed small forward who can’t guard or beat power forwards off the dribble. He has to develop into a lethal (42% or more from three) shooter to be an important player in a rotation. He’ll have to become a better playmaker or post defender to become a starter.
Verdict: Maybe, but he needs time to improve on his deficiencies
Andrew Harrison — technically, he’s already an NBA starter, but I meant a legitimate starter for a team that actually has options for shooting guard. Harrison can’t shoot, isn’t a good defender, and isn’t a particularly good playmaker. And he hasn’t shown improvement.
Verdict: Nope, definitely never going to be a starter
Ben McLemore — this is a rehab season for Ben McLemore, to see if there’s anything there. In theory, McLemore should be a good spot-up shooter and average defender. That’s all he needs to be. He’s average right now from three, 35.2% for his career, though he improved to 38.2% last year. If he takes another step forward, he’s the starting shooting guard for this Grizzlies team. If he can just be an average defender of twos, he’s a starter in the league. There’s a reason why he was the regarded as one of the most talented players in the 2013 draft class.
Verdict: Maybe, he needs some minor improvements
Ivan Rabb — I really liked that the Grizzlies picked up Ivan Rabb in the second round of the draft. He’s long, he has a little bit of a stroke from 15 feet, and he doesn’t shy away from the glass. He’s not strong enough to play center, but given his length and size, he’ll have to sooner or later. If he improves his interior, pick-and-roll, and help defense, he can be a starter. But it probably won’t happen too soon with Gasol at the helm.
Verdict: Maybe, but he needs time
Wayne Selden — again, Selden is the starter for now, especially given his strong Summer league showing. But his shot isn’t improving as quickly as it needs to and he’s a little undersized to guard NBA twos.
Verdict: Probably not, probably best as a backup
That’s seven young players and three maybes, three nopes, and one probably not. And the Grizzlies don’t have their pick this year. That’s not a good future outlook.
Is Chandler Parsons the worst contract in the league?
I’ll make this quick. Yes. He has the worst contract in the league. Memphis could’ve paid Harrison Barnes the exact same contract and they’d be a definite playoff team this year, with great offensive and defensive versatility.
The Parsons rehab is going to be interesting. They’ll probably start by making him come off the bench, putting him on minutes restrictions. And then the minute he starts playing 24+ minutes a game, he’ll probably get injured again. This is the reason why the Grizzlies won’t make the playoffs. They literally have two All-Star level players and the rest of their team is replacement level.
Is it time to consider a preemptive trade of Gasol and/or Conley?
What’s the ceiling for this current construction of the Grizzlies? 45 wins and tough loss in the first round? Memphis, as a franchise, has always hung its hat on moral victories, reveling in their culture and their cult hero stars. And there’s nothing at all wrong with that. If they decide that loyalty to their core is more important than upgrading their risk profile and going for a different approach for a ring, then more power to them.
But if Memphis wants to win a championship, it won’t be with this current core, especially since the franchise is saddled for three years with the Parsons contract. So they need to find picks and young assets. And that requires them to trade Conley and/or Gasol. I say trade them both. Let’s fire up the trade machine.
Add the newly acquired Brooklyn pick to that trade and that’s a great haul for an aging center. Cleveland probably doesn’t say no, especially if they can set up a Big Four to entice Lebron (we’ll talk about this later).
Trading Conley is tough because of his salary. Denver is a great candidate, but they’ll need to part with Jamal Murray and Mudiay in this scenario. But why wouldn’t they? Conley, Gary Harris, James Ennis, Millsap, and Jokic is a solid lineup. And Memphis would be left with two great young assets.
I’m always advocate preemptive trades to get back assets, much like the Melo trade from Denver. But the culture in Memphis is probably going to lead to Conley and Gasol being Memphis lifers. And that’s also something special.
Dallas Mavericks (Crevice Predicted Wins: 32)
Projected starting lineup: Dennis Smith, Jr., Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, Nerlens Noel (I hope)
Most intriguing lineup: Dennis Smith Jr., Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki
Best case scenario: Dennis Smith, Jr. is a top 15 point guard from the start and the Mavericks push 45 wins and contend for the playoffs
Worst case scenario: Dennis Smith is an average rookie point guard, Dirk is entirely washed, Harrison Barnes is an empty volume scorer, Noel doesn’t take a step forward, and the Mavs struggle to get to 30 wins
Give me ten reasons why Dirk Nowitzki is your second favorite basketball player of all time.
The unstoppable fall-away jumper. Just let this swaddle you to a blissful sleep.
The up and under.
The swagger and the tongue-wag.
Actual loyalty to the team, even in hopeless years of above average mediocrity. None of this fake Kobe loyalty, where he publicly demanded a trade from a team he couldn’t lead past the first round of the playoffs.
He’s one of the few players in NBA history who can actually claim that he single-handedly led a team to a championship. Sure, Marion and Chandler played great defense, and Terry made clutch shots, but that was Dirk’s team, unequivocally and unimpeachably.
He may be one of the best aging superstars to play with: he provides spacing, doesn’t care about his own stats, doesn’t care about minutes, and enjoys connecting with young players.
He’s the second best power forward of all-time (sorry, Kevin Garnett).
He’s one of the most important big men of all-time.
He does not care about money.
He’s super fun to play with on 2K, from 2K2 to 2K17.
What is Dennis Smith, Jr.’s ceiling? What’s his floor?
Refer to my post lottery mock draft.
One of the lasting first impressions I have of DSJ is this video (shown below) from the Stephen Curry Select Camp from 2016. He’s taking on prospects in a one year radius of himself in little one-on-one games, and he shows off his whole offensive game: pull-ups, step-backs, explosive bursts to the rim for finishes, crafty finishes at the rim, solid, if not good, man-to-man defense. At one point, he nutmegs two different players en route to a dunk, leaving the Curry brothers looking like side characters in a John Hughes movies starring DSJ.
At his very best, DSJ is in the mold of a Russell Westbrook, relentless athlete, huge chip on his shoulder, and great fast twitch muscles. He definitely has a better natural feel for the floor game than Westbrook, especially if you compare the two at the age of 19 or 20. A lot was made of DSJ as a score-first point guard. That’s true — his first instinct is find a way into the lane and score, either with a finish or a pull-up. And that’s the right instinct for a point guard.
But his passing is impressive. I think he’s the second best passer in the draft class, and the gap between Fultz and him is pretty wide. Smith has a great understanding of timing on the pick-and-roll, knowing that patience is as important as his explosion into the rim. He has the pocket pass, he has the drop off, he has that extra crab dribble to bring a defender onto his ass to give more time for the big to roll to the rim, and he has the kick out. NBEinstein did an extensive breakdown of all the passes that DSJ is capable of making, and it’s telling (though it’s in French).
I’m high on Smith. I’m probably too high on him. But I love this fit. He’ll get one or two years, perfecting pick-and-pop timing with Dirk, the best pick-and-pop big of all-time. On the other hand, if Dallas can resign Nerlens Noel, he’ll have a good pick-and-roll roll man to work on that aspect of his game. And with Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, and even Yogi Ferrell, he’ll have plenty of space to operate.
Here’s the other reason I’m high on Smith: the floor’s pretty high. If his shot never develops out of the mistakes young point guards are prone to making and he’s just an athletic, fast-twitch point guard without a good shot, he’s still a starting point guard in the league, given enough spacing, in all three dimensions (shooting and rolling). Dallas will always have shooting and rolling. If that happens, Smith resembles Steve Francis or Eric Bledsoe. And what’s wrong with that? If Steve Francis didn’t have Ménière’s disease and some bum legs or Eric Bledsoe didn’t blow out his knees regularly, they’re above average point guards in the league for at least eight to ten years. That’s a value pick from the ninth overall, right?
How much string Rick Carlisle gives him these first couple of years is going to dictate how quickly and how efficiently DSJ will develop. Dallas has four point guards on this roster, which is concerning. I’m sure that Ferrell is going to get plenty of minutes, but Ferrell, at least offensively, can play the two. He’s a solid enough shooter that he can spot up. Barea and Harris both need to go. They’re no longer capable backup point guards. Given the fact that the only two shooting guards on the team are Seth Curry (small for even a point guard in the NBA) and Wesley Matthews, Smith’s going to play in a bunch of two point guard lineups. That’s not good. Smith, in his prime, is never going to be playing extensively off-the-ball. I’m sure Carlisle understands that and will run the other point guards off screens and such to develop those natural lead guard skills from DSJ.
Do the Mavericks actually have a young core?
If you squint, then yes, but only if everything goes exactly as well as they can. Say Dallas resigns Nerlens Noel to a good deal — 5 years, $100 million sounds about right for a stellar defensive center who’s only 23. He can play pick-and-roll with the best pick-and-roll point guard from this past draft class in Dennis Smith, Jr. Say Harrison Barnes continues to improve his scoring and his ball-handling. He can camp out on the wings or in the corner for open threes and secondary playmaking off kick outs. Seth Curry does the same on the opposite side. Say Dorian Finney-Smith develops into Jared Dudley. That’s a lethal offense with enough switchability and athleticism to be a good defensive team.
There can be small-small pick-and-rolls with Smith and Barnes or Smith and Finney-Smith. That’ll turn into matchups that Smith can explode on and find Noel on dump-offs or open shooters on kick outs. Or imagine drag screen action with two of the bigs with Curry and the other forward on the weakside. That’ll look really similar to the Taj Gibson-Joakim Noah drag screens for Derrick Rose, except the offensive versatility for Barnes and Noel may be greater than that of those two former Bulls.
Defensively, Noel is a more than adequate rim protector moving forward, and Barnes and Finney-Smith are great switching forwards, interchangeable on small forwards and power forwards, and good enough to guard the perimeter for possessions. The issue will be perimeter defense. Smith has the tools to be a good defender at the point of attack, and Seth Curry’s hands have been touted. But a gambler of an undersized two-guard and a point guard with waxing and waning defensive interest isn’t particularly great for the great backcourts in the West.
And that brings us to the dark route. what if Noel is just want he is right now: a 10 point, 8 rebound energy guy, best suited off the bench, a poor man’s Tyson Chandler? What if Dorian Finney Smith is a poor man’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute? What if Seth Curry’s best years are behind him and moving forward he’s a rich man’s Ian Clark? And this is what Harrison Barnes is, a 20 point scorer who needs a heavy load of touches and isolation plays run for him. That’s a middling team at best in the West.
The Mavs own their 2018 pick. That’s key for the future of this franchise. If Dallas can strategically tank this year, giving Dennis Smith plenty of playing minutes with other young players like Johnathan Motley, Brandon Ashley, P.J. Dozier, and Gian Clavell. If they can secure a top seven pick, they can luck themselves into one of Marvin Bagley, Michael Porter, Jr. (making for some great junior pun nicknames for the DSJ and MPJ tandem), Luka Doncic, Wendell Carter, Mohammad Bamba, DeAndre Ayton, or Miles Bridges. All of those are interesting pieces for this team, but especially Porter, Doncic, Bagley, or Bridges. Hopefully, Carlisle is fine with losing games because that’ll be best for the post-Dirk era.
