Way Too Early Predictions for the 2017–2018 NBA Season

Disclaimer: this is an wholly meaningless column. This is utter speculation for a season that’s 95 days away. First off, that actually isn’t too far away, so this kind of prediction isn’t too premature. Secondly, the off-season isn’t quite finished yet, so these predictions are probably going to obsolete in a few days. But who cares?

I’m going to give a prediction for the NBA Standings, the All-Star rosters, playoff results, and end-of-year awards and all-NBA teams. I’m also going to give five transactional predictions. And, since I’m going to try to make this way-too-early predictions column an annual thing, I’m going to score these predictions at the end of the 2018 season.

These aren’t going to be outrageous predictions. Spoiler alert:

Here’s my arbitrary scoring structure:

For the standings:
5 points for exactly predicting a team’s record
3 points for predicting a team’s record within 1 win
1 point for predicting a team’s record within 2 wins
That is, if I predict a team to win 45 games, I get 5 points if they win 45, 3 points if they win 44 or 46, and 1 point if they win 43 or 47.

For the All-Star rosters:
1 point for every correct All-Star pick
1.5 points for every correct All-Star starter
That is, if I predict LeBron James to start the All-Star game, and he does, I get 1 point for predicting correctly his inclusion in the All-Star game and a bonus 2 points for predicting that he’s a starter

For the playoff results:
1 point for every correct Round 1 winner
2 points for every correct Round 2 winner
4 points for every correct Round 3 winner
8 points for the correct NBA champion
3 bonus points for every correctly predicted series length

For the end-of-year awards:
1 point for every correctly predicted member of the All-Rookie, All-Defense, and All-NBA teams
2 bonus points for predicting an All-NBA performer to his correct All-NBA team
7 points for predicting each overall end of the year award correctly

For the transactions:
7 points for every correctly predicted transaction

So, if I get everything completely right, the maximum possible score I can get is 450 points. I’m aiming for 300 for this inaugural prediction series.

Predicted Eastern Conference Standings

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (58–24)
   The Cavaliers are going to win more games, entirely by beating up on a terrible Eastern Conference.
2. Boston Celtics (56–26)
   The loss of Avery Bradley is going to cause some deficiencies offensively. March Smart is a facsimile of Bradley, defensively, but he pales in comparison in terms of shooting and off-ball offense.
3. Toronto Raptors (52–30)
   The Raptors’ position in the East hinges on Kyle Lowry’s health. They’re a lock for 48 wins.
4. Washington Wizards (52–30)
   An improvement of 3 wins from the previous year is nothing to scoff at, even though their seeding doesn’t change.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (48–34)
   Giannis can carry a mediocre team to 48 wins; he’s just that good. The Bucks’ playoff success will depend on how Middleton plays as a secondary creator and how Parker develops.
6. Miami Heat (44–38)
   Sure, the Heat went 30–11 in the second half of the 2016–17 season, but a team built around Goran Dragic/Hassan Whiteside pick-and-rolls doesn’t elicit too much confidence, even if Erik Spoelstra is a top five coach in the league. Add a supporting cast of mercurial Dion Waiters, long-lost Doobie brother Kelly Olynyk, and James ‘Bloodsport’ Johnson, and we have a league average team. I am excited to see if Justise Winslow can take a step.
7. Charlotte Hornets (42–40)
   Kemba/Dwight pick-and-rolls with Nic Batum, Malik Monk, and Marvin Williams spacing the floor… someone please come talk me out of this because I’m just gonna get hurt in this unilateral relationship.
8. Philadelphia 76ers (42–40)
   Can a lineup of Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid, with T.J. McConnell, Dario Saric, and Richaun Holmes off the bench be a playoff team? I’m in.
9. Detroit Pistons (40–42)
   Oh, for the love of Jeff Van Gundy, Stan needs to blow it up. Reggie Jackson isn’t good enough to be the point guard that the offensively-challenged Andre Drummond needs. There’s going to be a shakeup coming soon.
10. Orlando Magic (34–48)
    I literally just yawned, thinking about the Magic. Sure, Jonny Isaac and Aaron Gordon make for an intriguing pair of forwards, especially defensively. But the Magic are going to regret passing on Dennis Smith, Jr.
11. Indiana Pacers (30–52)
    Indiana reloaded with Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, and T.J. Leaf. Yeah… it’s not going to be a pretty season.
12. New York Knicks (28–54)
    Given Melo’s exodus from the team, an offense without a point guard featuring Kristaps Porzingis will be downright ugly. Hopefully, Frank Ntilikina will get a lot of reps, so he can improve and develop some chemistry with Porzingis.
13. Brooklyn Nets (24–58)
    Brooklyn won’t be the worst team in the league. D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is actually an interesting young perimeter rotation, and Jeremy Lin is an underrated player. They’ll pull out wins in a weak East.
14. Chicago Bulls (20–62)
    Here are the three best players on the Bulls: Dwyane Wade, Zach LaVine, and Robin Lopez? Or maybe Paul Zipser… The Bulls are going to be HORRIBLE…
15. Atlanta Hawks (18–64)
    But not as horrible as the Dennis Schröder/John Collins show in the Hype Factory. At least Atlanta can look forward to the Michael Porter/John Collins era.

Predicted Western Conference Standings

1. Golden State Warriors (68–14)
   They fucking got better. Omri Casspi and Nick Young and Jordan Bell means more wins and a healthy +10 win margin on the rest of the league.
2. Houston Rockets (58–24)
   It’s going to take a little bit of time for the James Harden/Chris Paul backcourt to gel. If Melo gets added to the roster, it’ll take a little more time to shake off the bad habits.
3. San Antonio Spurs (54–28)
   The Spurs are going to be playing this season in fugue state, looking forward to the summer of 2018, when they can attempt clear off Parker, Ginobili, and LaMarcus Aldridge from their books and create a dynastic roster around Kawhi Leonard.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (54–28)
   Russell Westbrook with literally no spacing led to 47 wins. It follows, quite logically, that Westbrook with spacing is going to lead to more wins. A lineup of Westbrook, Steven Adams, Paul George, Anthony Roberson, and either Patrick Patterson or Jerami Grant will be brutal to score against.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (50–32)
   Fifty wins seems doable for a team with two bonafide top fifteen players in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler with a bunch of above average role players. And yes, Wiggins is one of those role players.
6. Utah Jazz (48–34)
   Utah isn’t going to lose too many wins without Gordon Hayward. Rubio will be really good for Dante Exum’s development, and Rodney Hood’s scoring will soar. They can commit entirely to a defense-first mentality, play huge with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Also Donovan Mitchell.
7. Los Angeles Clippers (46–36)
   The Blake Griffin Renaissance will be fun to watch, especially with Milos Teodosic throwing lobs to him and DeAndre Jordan.
8. Denver Nuggets (44–36)
   The interior passing between Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic will be glorious to watch.
9. Portland Trail Blazers (40–42)
   Two tiny shoot-first guards with a defensively lacking center. They’ll score a helluva lot of points, but they will give up more. And that is why they will have a losing record.
10. New Orleans Pelicans (36–44)
    The Pelicans are going to set a lot of the narrative this year. If the team struggles, Boogie trades are going to be rampant. It’ll be great to see them in the playoffs, but Jrue Holiday can barely stay on the court. And the other ten players on the roster probably wouldn’t be All G-League.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (36–46)
    Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, along with JaMychal Green… isn’t going to be enough to make the playoffs, unless Chandler Parsons makes a remarkable recovery.
12. Dallas Mavericks (32–50)
    Dennis Smith is going to have great rookie year, but you can’t expect to build a playoff roster around aging Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes, and Seth Curry. If Dirk were four or five years younger, I’d be significantly more excited.
13. Los Angeles Lakers (30–52)
    The only thing that the Lakers need to do this year is establish Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram as viable NBA starters. That’s all. If they can do that, they’ll be successful.
14. Sacramento Kings (24–58)
    De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield are going to play a lot of minutes, and they’re going to lose games. And that’s the point. Play the youth, with some babysitting from George Hill, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter and hit their 2018 pick out the park.
15. Phoenix Suns (22–60)
    Josh Jackson’s performance in Summer League gave me pause, not only with his shooting stroke but with his shot selection. The Suns need to commit to their youth fully and just play the Ulis-Booker combo and hope they can improve defensively. But all signs point to the Suns being terrible again.

Predicted Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starters
G — Kyrie Irving
G — John Wall
F — LeBron James
F — Gordon Hayward
F — Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reserves
G — Isaiah Thomas
G — Kyle Lowry
G/F — DeMar DeRozan
G — Bradley Beal
C — Hassan Whiteside
G — Kemba Walker
C — Joel Embiid
F— Kevin Love

This is just sad. I had to snub… wait, I don’t think I snubbed anyone. I honestly think that only LeBron and Giannis would make the Western Conference All-Star team.

The crazier scenario is if Embiid doesn’t stay healthy. Then would Drummond be the logical choice to replace him on the team? I think so. That’s scary. Drummond is a glorified role player.

Predicted Western Conference All-Stars

Starters
G — Steph Curry
G — James Harden
F — Kevin Durant
F — Kawhi Leonard
F — Anthony Davis

Reserves
F — Draymond Green
G — Chris Paul
F — Paul George
G — Russell Westbrook
G —Jimmy Butler
C —Rudy Gobert
F — Blake Griffin
C — Karl-Anthony Towns

And this is the list of snubs on the Western Conference teams: Klay Thompson, DeAndre Jordan, Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard, DeMarcus Cousins, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol. All of those players would make the Eastern Conference team.

Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

First Round
Cleveland over Philadelphia in 5
Boston over Charlotte in 5
Toronto over Miami in 7
Washington over Milwaukee in 7

Second Round
Cleveland over Washington in 5
Boston over Toronto in 6

Third Round
Cleveland over Boston in 6

In summary, Cleveland’s going to march right through the East again, but it won’t be a cakewalk like in the past few years.

Western Conference Playoff Predictions

First Round
Golden State over Denver in 4
Houston over Los Angeles in 6
San Antonio over Utah in 6
Oklahoma City over Minnesota in 7

Second Round
Golden State over Oklahoma City in 5
Houston over San Antonio in 7(sorry Shea Serrano)

Third Round
Golden State over Houston in 5

Same deal with Golden State. Russell Westbrook and Paul George are bound to be able to steal a game against the Warriors. Same with Chris Paul and Harden.

NBA Finals Predictions

Golden State over Cleveland in 5

All-League Awards Predictions

Let’s get the pointless awards out of the way.

Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams, Los Angeles Clippers

Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder, Utah Jazz

Most Improved Player: Dante Exum, Utah Jazz

All-Rookie Teams

First Team
G — Lonzo Ball
G — Markelle Fultz
G — Dennis Smith, Jr.
G — De’Aaron Fox
F — Ben Simmons

Second Team
G — Donovan Mitchell
F — Jayson Tatum
G — Milos Teodosic
G — Malik Monk
F — John Collins

Rookie of the Year: Ben Simmons

I temporarily forgot that this is Ben Simmons’s rookie year. And if the Sixers make the playoffs, it won’t be because of Embiid (because he’ll be on minutes restrictions and injury prevention regimes). If Ben Simmons comes in and puts up 12–15 points, 7–8 rebounds, 5–6 assists per game, they’ll make the playoffs and he’ll be ROY.

John Collins is probably going to lead all rookies in scoring, given the crazy amount of playing time he’ll get on a putrid Hawks team. And his Summer League performance was promising.

All-Defense Teams

First Team
G — Patrick Beverley
G — Klay Thompson
G — Kawhi Leonard
G — Draymond Green
F — Rudy Gobert

Second Team
G — Chris Paul
F — Marcus Smart
G — Giannis Antetokounmpo
G — Andre Roberson
F — Joel Embiid

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert

Two comments here: if the Jazz are a top five or six team in the West, it’ll hinge on Gobert’s defense, thus earning him DPOY honors. Next, if Joel Embiid plays a 90% of what he did defensively this past year over a stretch of 65+ games, he needs to be credited as the second best defensive center in the league. Simple as that.

Klay Thompson doesn’t get the credit he deserves as being the perimeter anchor for the Warriors defense. His switchability isn’t an afterthought, it’s a crux for the defense. Draymond’s ability to shade a point guard for a few seconds is impressive. So is Klay Thompson’s ability to hold his own against much bigger wings and bigs.

Marcus Smart needs to have a bullish year in terms of perimeter defense. He’ll probably have to chase off-ball shooters, press up on the best handlers in the league, and switch up on bigger wings that have several inches on him. The Celtics defense will depend on his defense at the point of attack.

All-NBA Teams

First Team
G — Steph Curry
G — Russell Westbrook
F — LeBron James
F — Kevin Durant
C — Rudy Gobert

Second Team
G — Chris Paul
G — James Harden
F — Giannis Antetokounmpo
F — Kawhi Leonard
C — Anthony Davis

Third Team
G — John Wall
G — Isaiah Thomas
F — Draymond Green
F — Blake Griffin
C — Karl-Anthony Towns

MVP: LeBron James

LeBron knows he won’t win next year. Might as well gun for his fifth MVP.

The last forward spot on the third team will be between Jimmy Butler and Blake Griffin. If the Clipper make the playoffs, it’ll be entirely because of Griffin’s overall play. That deserves an All-NBA nod.

In-Season Transaction Predictions

Dwayne Wade gets bought out in February, and he signs with Cleveland to be their sixth man. More on this below.

Near the deadline, San Antonio reads the writing on the walls and trades LaMarcus Aldridge away to the Orlando Magic, who are in playoff contention in February. Brooklyn sops up Nikola Vucevic’s contract for a 2018 first round pick from San Antonio. It’s fine to sputter out in the second round if San Antonio can open up maximum cap space.

Denver finds itself in dire need of a viable point guard, trade away Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Malik Beasley for Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe on the Nuggets would be a great fit. Pick-and-pop galore with two exceptional passing bigs.

There’s a shit ton of trade rumors for DeMarcus Cousins, especially because the Pelicans are going to struggle. It all culminates with a blockbuster trade with Cleveland for Kevin Love. Boogie with LeBron and Kyrie is interesting but probably is a desperate play. If this trade does happen, Tristan Thompson is expendable and needs to be shopped for wings, maybe to Atlanta for Kent Bazemore and another auxiliary piece. Then the Cavs could go to war with a weird roster that starts Kyrie, Smith, Bazemore, LeBron, and Boogie with Wade, Shumpert, Korver, Jefferson, and Frye off the bench. Oh yeah, they have Jeff Green, too.

Dallas tries to off-load salary, dumping Dwight Powell’s three remaining years and their two 2018 second picks to Brooklyn for Trevor Booker. Dallas maintained significant cap space for the 2018 season, and removing Powell’s salary from the books make it much easier to land a big free agent next summer.