Bitcoin
Bitcoin: The End Of An Era
The Final Pump: From $100K To Irrelevancy
The new BTC bull cycle is about to begin, but it won’t lead to unimaginable riches this time around.
The key to profiting during this cycle is correctly finding entry points and timely exiting. Profit margins will be lower than previously, so timing will matter more than any previous cycle.
The potential risk for average retail investors is greater than the reward. Furthermore, the 15-year period of extreme speculation will gradually diminish afterward.
Some traders already know this, but only a few influential ones on Twitter and YouTube alert their audience of BTC’s limited potential. The general expectation of BTC maximalists is that the price will rise ad infinitum.
Unless we missed a milestone, the BTC halving sequence will play out one final time. Was there any milestone for BTC that changed the landscape drastically enough to enable mass adoption?
This is the final pump: 2023–2025. No more parabolic bull runs, no new price levels.
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The Wisdom Of The Charts
The 4th halving should bring Bitcoin (BTC) to $100k, but it won’t go a lot higher than that.
As we examine in 4th halving analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) has a maximum of $100k as a new ATH.
The 80% “dump it” moment that follows the ATH will again occur and bring BTC back to where it started. The price will most likely retrace to $20k levels by 2025 and 2026.
An ATH 45% higher than the previous one, pointing to one final time the halving effect matters. Scarcity alone is irrelevant when the disruptive potential that brought BTC to $69,000 (and according to our prediction $100k in 2024) evaporates.
All the wisdom you will ever need exists in the charts.
Trololo: FAILED
S2F Chart: FAILED
These two price predictions were based on incomplete data.
However, Bitcoin was gaining momentum to challenge the dollar’s hegemony when the trololo chart was released, so that chart was describing a different story.
The lack of scalability caused all models to fail as BTC underperformed in adoption and network effect.
Extreme price predictions, particularly from banks, are questionable and tend to be counter-indicators.
What Bitcoin Did In 2022 That Casts Doubts To Traders
Two distinct details define Bitcoin’s price action in 2022:
- Bitcoin didn’t meet the price target of 100K that was set by every prediction model for 2021. Its peak was at $69,000 instead (double top).
- Furthermore, in 2022 the price dropped to the 2017 levels. Bitcoin (BTC) had never fallen below the all-time high of the previous cycle until 2022.
We need to acknowledge that the stock-to-flow chart is no longer relevant since advancing to higher levels is unattainable.
A similar pattern will repeat, and BCT in 2025 will drop to 2021 levels for a longer timeframe, while it will also risk entering 2017 levels again, depending on circumstances beyond our control (e.g. a Tether failure).
Appeals to “hodl” and “diamond hands” or dreams of early retirement by “staking sats” will prove weaker than the fantasies of living in citadels and a “swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom“.
Closing Thoughts
Investors will remove BTC from their vocabulary after the cycle of the fourth halving ends.
BTC can reach $100,000 in 2024, but will that be a win for Bitcoin? A sharp decline in prices follows the end of the bull cycle without exception.
A drop to $20,000 in 2025 will dissuade even the most loyal supporters and force investors to abandon it en mass.
The fate of Bitcoin (BTC) as a speculative asset is sealed. Utility seized to exist as the small block size makes it impossible to use BTC as a digital currency.
The era of Bitcoin (BTC) extreme speculation is already over. Sadly, fifteen years later, it can only aspire to matter only for its collectible features.
- Cover Picture on Pixabay (modified)
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