ELECTION 2020
Biden’s Campaign Ad on Trump: Smart or Dumb?
This article can be found in my “Political Analysis” section.
Joe Biden’s most recent campaign ad attacked Donald Trump on his handling of COVID-19. The ad was succinct while tapping into people’s anxieties about the current situation. Let’s break down the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Here’s the ad. It’s about 30 seconds long.
Biden’s recent campaign ad on Donald Trump — shown on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
Let’s go through this.
The first point is:
“Coronavirus is exploding again across America.”
Yeah, that’s pretty much accurate. We’re seeing record numbers of daily cases since the virus began (as shown below).
Even states like Florida and Arizona — which have attempted to stay open during the crisis as much as possible — are closing again now that cases are rising rapidly in both Florida and Arizona (though cases could go down again soon).
Anyway, on top of that, people don’t seem happy with the situation. As of June 30th, FiveThirtyEight reports that 64.9% of people are either “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about getting infected, and 85.1% are worried about the economy.
So yeah, it’s strategically smart that Biden puts the second wave of COVID-19 front and center. It taps into people’s fears of the situation, and it will likely get people’s attention.
FiveThirtyEight also reported that 55.9% of people disapprove of Trump’s COVID-19 response (while only 40.8% of people approve) as of June 30th. That’s a 15% differential — people don’t seem to be pleased.
On that note, the second point in the ad is:
“It didn’t have to be this way… Trump lied, saying ‘It’s going to disappear.’”
Again, this is true. While the virus was spreading around the world in January and February, Trump downplayed the threat. I discuss that in detail below:
However, Biden could’ve given more details. He could have mentioned that Trump refused to order N95 masks in bulk until mid-March or that Trump allowed the CDC to make its own test from scratch instead of using a WHO-test template (the CDC wasted a month by doing that). The ad could have mentioned that Trump didn’t ban travel to Europe until March, even though the disease was spreading quickly in February. The list goes on.
The point is that Biden should have hammered Trump for being irresponsible, and giving those specifics would frame that point in a way that (I think) would click with lots of people.
But here’s what Biden does say (this is the 3rd point):
“He even praised President Xi’s handling of the virus to protect his bad trade deal with China for his own reelection.”
Here’s where the ad loses me. It’s true that Trump was praising China for its COVID-19 response (you can see Trump’s tweets in the ad). That, of course, isn’t completely justified as China failed to contain the virus.
Here’s the problem. I don’t think voters really care about China that much right now. People aren’t thinking about Trump’s trade negotiations with China at the moment. I get that Biden’s point is that “Trump is worried about his trade deal rather than public safety.” But I think that bringing up trade with China isn’t a good idea here — in my estimation, it only serves to confuse people and distract from the subject at hand.
Rather, Biden could be more direct in his point. The ad initially states that “Trump said the ‘virus would go away.’” The ad could have just said “Trump downplayed the virus so that people would think he’s doing a good job. Trump was only thinking about his reelection chances.” That line of attack would make the same argument, and it would be more succinct and punchy.
Ok, now we move on to the 4th and final point:
“And what did we get? 125,000 dead. 20 million jobs lost. Recession. Trump. He puts himself first. And you last.”
This is a good ending, overall. As I said, many people are worried about getting infected and about the economy (according to FiveThirtyEight). So it’s smart to put these numbers in people’s minds. When people see the statistic “20 million jobs lost,” I think it clicks. 20 million jobs lost is a very tangible effect on our economy, and it’s hard to ignore. So again, the ad taps into people’s fears in the current situation.
I think that the final line, “He puts himself first. And you last,” would have been stronger if the ad made a stronger argument about Trump’s self-centered attitude. If the ad went with a different argument from the China line-of-attack, then this point would probably resonate with people more. But as is, it’s a decent ending.
How the ad could have been better
Overall, this is an okay ad. I think it should have been more specific in its criticisms of Trump (without droning on too much, of course), and the point about China is not particularly strong. However, it puts the severity of the crisis into perspective, so this ad is a good start for the Biden campaign going into the general election.
Here’s something the ad could have done, though: it could have mentioned Biden’s record more.
As you may remember, the Obama administration dealt with the 2009 swine flu outbreak and the 2014 Ebola outbreak. Neither of those outbreaks impacted the US too severely — the swine flu killed about 12,000 people while Ebola killed only 2 people on US soil. Now, I understand that these diseases had different circumstances from COVID-19 (for example, Ebola is not an airborne virus, making it much harder to spread internationally).
But here’s what Biden could have said: “during Obama’s term, we worked quickly to contain the virus by quarantine people, limiting travel, and immediately working on a vaccine.” Biden could take some of the credit for the Obama administration’s relative success. He could say that he “has experience in containing an epidemic.”
Now, whether Biden was actually involved in the epidemic responses, and whether Obama’s response was actually proactive — those are separate conversations. Important, but separate.
But strategically, it would be good for Biden to associate himself with the successes of the Obama administration. Biden doesn’t have to go into all the details during an ad (so as to avoid boring people) — he could just say, “we contained two outbreaks, Trump couldn’t even stop COVID-19 with a 2-month window of opportunity.”
Again, I’m not praising Biden’s actual record — I’m completely divorcing that from this discussion right now. I’m simply pointing out what would be a smart move for Biden’s campaign.
So overall, this campaign ad has some holes — and it could be beefed up a bit to hit Trump harder. But it taps into people’s anxieties right now, so in my estimation, it’s a good start.
Remember to Stay Cynical.
