2017 Rookie Draft Grades
Analyzing our first rookie draft
I once read an NFL article that said it’s foolish to grade a team’s draft class right after the draft since it takes at least three years until you know how good those players are. That doesn’t stop the masses from doing it anyways but I do think the writer had a point. So, I’ve bided my time…and it’s officially been three years since our first D|League Rookie Draft. Let’s do some grading now!
This is an inexact method but I’d still rather be data-driven over assigning grades on a whim, so what I’ve done is compare the expected value of the draft slot versus the current value of the player. I’m using the same values that our Google Sheet calculator uses (from DynastyProcess.com).
Considering how stacked this draft class ended up being, it’s no surprise that many of us graded favorably using this process. For those that didn’t… my condolences.
Kurtis
1.01 — Leonard Fournette
1.12 — Kareem Hunt
3.01 — Deshaun Watson
4.01 — Jake Butt
4.05 — Malachi Dupre
Expected Value of Picks: 7,453
Current Value of Players: 7,949
This draft was almost a huge win for Kurtis and it definitely was one year in after Fournette and Hunt’s rookie years. Unfortunately, we know what happened to Hunt and while Fournette holds plenty of value, he currently comes in as the 11th most valuable player in the rookie class despite being drafted 1.01. On the bright side, Deshaun Watson was a steal at 3.01 and overall, Kurtis still exceeded his expected value.
Draft Grade: B
Joe
1.02 — Corey Davis
1.14 — David Njoku
2.02 — Curtis Samuel
3.02 — Taywan Taylor
4.02 — Jeremy McNichols
Expected Value: 6,593
Current Value: 1,265
There’s still some hope and value in Curtis Samuel but the story here is simple: Corey Davis being a bust completely ruined this draft class.
Draft Grade: D+
JR
1.03 — Christian McCaffrey
1.09 — John Ross
3.03 — Robert Woods
4.03 — Ryan Tannehill
Expected Value: 6,034
Current Value: 13,461
Obviously, getting the current №1 overall Dynasty player (according to FPros) is an absolute win and JR was able to accomplish that with the 3rd pick. Robert Woods, while not a rookie, was a steal in the 3rd Round as well.
Draft Grade: A
Lando
1.04 — Dalvin Cook
2.01 — Evan Engram
3.11 — Dede Westbrook
4.04 — Darren Sproles
Expected Value: 4,277
Current Value: 11,888
Not a lot needs to be said here — Dalvin Cook and Evan Engram were excellent picks and even Dede Westbrook is still holding onto some dynasty value out in Jacksonville.
Draft Grade: A
Bunger
1.05 — Joe Mixon
2.05 — Joe Williams
3.05 — Wayne Gallman
Expected Value: 3,429
Current Value: 7,753
This draft class is really just one player for Bunger and that’s okay — Mixon is enough of a hit that Bunger still doubled up his expected value.
Draft Grade: B+
Marlo
1.06 — O.J. Howard
1.15 — Samaje Perine
2.06 — D’Onta Foreman
3.06 — Devin Funchess
4.06 — Adam Shaheen
Expected Value: 3,556
Current Value: 406
Unfortunately for Marlo, there isn’t really a single significant fantasy contributor in this draft class (#FREEOJ). As stacked as this 2017 RB class was, Marlo somehow ended up with Perine, who essentially washed out of the league after one season.
Draft Grade: D+
Kevin
1.07 — Mike Williams
1.13 — JuJu Smith-Schuster
2.08 — Jamaal Williams
3.08 — Patrick Mahomes
4.08 — George Kittle
Expected Value: 3,274
Current Value: 20,265
Sheesh. Kevin didn’t just kill this draft, he murdered it. We’re all just lucky that Mike Williams hasn’t panned out (knock on wood).
Draft Grade: A+
Binh
1.08 — Marshawn Lynch
2.03 — Cooper Kupp
2.11 — Chris Godwin
2.13 — Gerald Everett
3.13 — Jonnu Smith
4.12 — Jared Goff
Expected Value: 2,510
Current Value: 14,070
This was an excellent draft class and yet it could’ve been way better if Binh hadn’t taken Marshawn Lynch. Even more unfortunate for Binh — the gem of this class was Chris Godwin, who Binh dropped halfway through his rookie season.
Draft Grade: A
Jeff
1.10 — Zay Jones
2.10 — Josh Reynolds
3.10 — Chris Conley
4.10 — Donnel Pumphrey
Expected Value: 1,521
Current Value: 163
Expectations aren’t high drafting out of the 10th slot but this is still a major miss considering Kamara was taken one pick after Zay Jones and there weren’t any steals in the later rounds of this class.
Draft Grade: D
Josh
1.11 — Alvin Kamara
Expected Value: 1,147
Current Value: 9,013
Josh had one shot. One opportunity. One moment. And didn’t let it slip.
Draft Grade: A
Anton
2.04 — John Brown
2.12 — Carlos Henderson
2.14 — James Conner
3.04 — Kenny Golladay
3.14 — Chad Williams
4.14 — Chad Hansen
Expected Value: 641
Current Value: 8,638
Anton gained the 3rd most value off of the 4th lowest expected value, primarily thanks to nabbing Kenny Golladay in the 3rd. James Conner was the other big steal but unfortunately Anton traded him prior to his breakout.
Draft Grade: A
Mikey
2.07 — Marlon Mack
2.09 — Jack Doyle
3.09 — ArDarius Stewart
3.12 — Ryan Switzer
4.09 — Jason Witten
4.11 — Elijah Hood
Expected Value: 475
Current Value: 1,165
Considering the lack of draft assets, this is a solid draft, especially since Marlon Mack held more value prior to the Colts drafting Jonathan Taylor this offseason.
Draft Grade: B+
Tani
3.07 — Julius Thomas
4.07 — Jacquizz Rodgers
Expected Value: 66
Current Value: 0
Nothing expected, nothing gained. Jacquizz had a funny name at least.
Draft Grade: C
Jason
4.13 — Alfred Blue
Expected Value: 11
Current Value: 0
See above, minus a funny name.
