2019 Rookie Draft Grades
How’d we do 3 years later?
It’s been three years since our 2019 Rookie Draft which means it’s time to do some grading!
Yearly reminder, this is an inexact method but what I’ve done is compare the expected value of the draft slot versus the current value of the player. I’m using the same values that our Google Sheet calculator uses (from DynastyProcess.com, which is also using FantasyPros Dynasty Rankings).
In 2017, 9 out of 14 teams gained dynasty value as well as an overall gain of 55,000 across the entire league! 2018 was a much weaker (normal?) class. Only seven teams gained value and the overall gain across the league was only 8,955.
2019 was a similar story. Only 6 teams gained any significant dynasty value out of their picks and the draft class overall has only gained 9,098 versus their expected value.
Still, there are some clear winners and losers. Let’s begin.
Chris
He goes by Chris now.
1.01 — Josh Jacobs (-4070)
1.12 — Marquise Brown (+1315)
2.12 — Diontae Johnson (+5021)
4.01 — Myles Gaskin (+18)
4.11 — Karan Higdon (-7)
Expected Value of Picks: 7,565
Current Value of Players: 9,842 (+2,277)
Dynasty rankings have soured on Josh Jacobs this offseason and he’s a loss based on expected value.. BUT he’s been an RB1 for Chris the last couple of seasons and is still a top 7 player out of this draft. It’s possible that Chris wouldn’t re-do the pick even if he could, especially considering he was able to nab two steals at WR with Marquise Brown and Diontae Johnson. Diontae specifically is easily the steal of the entire draft with the 2.12 pick having an expected value of 95 and his current value 50x’ing that at 5,021. Overall, obviously a draft class win for Chris.
Draft Grade: B+
Kevin
1.02 — Miles Sanders (-4,366)
2.02 — Justice Hill (-405)
2.13 — Dawson Knox (+778)
3.10 — Kahale Warring (-19)
3.14 — Gary Jennings Jr. (-15)
4.09 — Bruce Anderson (-8)
4.14 — Green Bay (-6)
Expected Value of Picks: 6,336
Current Value of Players: 2,295 (-4,041)
Miles Sanders has taken an even further tumble down the dynasty rankings than Jacobs and unlike Jacobs, his fantasy production has been disappointing since his RB 14 rookie season, culminating in an RB 44 finish with 0 total touchdowns last year. Dawson Knox is the lone bright spot of this draft class but even so, after two years of gaining great draft value, Kevin lost the 2nd most value in 2019.
Draft Grade: D+
Jeff
2.03— Dwayne Haskins
First and foremost, rest in peace Dwayne Haskins. Just unbelievably sad. I will not be including this pick in any grading or calculations.
1.03 — N’Keal Harry (-4,762)
1.11 — Darrell Henderson (-736)
4.03 — Devine Ozigbo (-10)
Expected Value of Picks: 5,878
Current Value of Players: 370 (-5,508)
Unfortunately, this was a rough draft class for Jeff and it really all comes down to N’Keal Harry, who has totaled 57 catches for 598 yards in three seasons since coming into the league. Darrell Henderson had half of a productive season last year and to Jeff’s credit, he did recoup the draft capital for Henderson in a trade but as far as the pick goes, it’s a loss. All in all, Jeff lost the most value with his 2019 class.
Draft Grade: D-
Anton
1.04 — David Montgomery (-722)
1.10 — Kyler Murray (+1314)
1.15 — Hakeem Butler (-562)
2.06 — Miles Boykin (-219)
2.10 — Irv Smith Jr. (+241)
3.01 — Jace Sternberger (-61)
3.13 — Rodney Anderson (-17)
4.08 — Preston Williams (-5)
Expected Value of Picks: 6,243
Current Value of Players: 6,212 (-31)
This was a large draft class filled with swings for Anton and three years later, he’s essentially broken even in terms of expected value. Montgomery, the final RB of the “top 3”, is officially the highest ranked RB three years later soo suck it, idiots! That’s a win in my book! Whoops, sorry, back to being objective. Overall, I’m not sure what there is to say about this draft class. Montgomery has been solid, Kyler has been pretty good, especially for fantasy, and Irv Smith is still holding on to a little bit of value gain. The rest of the class was a big miss. But again, overall a class that broke even, which you have to be happy with considering the volatility of draft picks.
Draft Grade: B-
Marlo
1.05 — DK Metcalf (+2977)
2.05 — Damien Harris (+859)
3.05 — Darwin Thompson (-36)
4.05 — Donte Moncrief (-10)
Expected Value of Picks: 3,561
Current Value of Players: 7,351 (+3,790)
Marlo has probably had the worst draft luck in the entire league but this draft class was a nice win for him (knock on wood). Losing Russell Wilson isn’t what Marlo wanted to see for DK Metcalf this offseason but he’s still a 24-year-old WR that has put up over 3,000 yards and 29 TDs in his first 3 seasons. Round 2 Pick Damien Harris has developed into the lead back for the Patriots and between these two players, Marlo was able to double his expected draft value.
Draft Grade: A-
Josh
1.06 — A.J. Brown (+4910)
1.08 — Parris Campbell (-1849)
3.04 — Bryce Love (-44)
4.06 — Tony Pollard (1251)
4.10 — Carolina (-7)
Expected Value of Picks: 4,633
Current Value of Players: 8,894 (+4,261)
Josh nearly doubled his value with this class primarily thanks to AJ Brown, who’s the top-ranked player from this draft 3 years later. Nailing that pick makes the Parris Campbell selection two picks later easier to swallow, who has played a total of 15 games in his career thanks to various injuries. In the 4th, Josh was able to nab a nice steal in Tony Pollard, who is slowly eating into Zeke’s opportunities and is one of the top handcuffs in the league.
Draft Grade: A-
Joe
1.07 — T.J. Hockenson (-25)
2.07 — Noah Fant (+429)
3.07 — Kelvin Harmon (-28)
4.07 — Trayveon Williams (-6)
Expected Value of Picks: 2,477
Current Value of Players: 2,847 (+370)
In Joe’s final (auto) draft before departing from the league, he went back to back with a pair of TE’s in the first two rounds. 3 years in, they’ve turned out to be solid, but not amazing, picks. Hockenson continues to be an enticing player and has maintained value but it’s fair to say he’s been a disappointment versus expectations. The same exact words can be said about Noah Fant as well despite the slight value bump. Dynasty rankings are pretty patient and optimistic when it comes to young TE’s but Year 4 is going to determine a lot about their value going forward.
Draft Grade: B
Jason
1.09 — Deebo Samuel (+5234)
1.13 — J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (-779)
3.08 — Hunter Renfrow (+788)
Expected Value of Picks: 2,375
Current Value of Players: 7,618 (+5,243)
Despite the miss at 1.13 with Arcega-Whiteside, this was still a giant win of a draft class for JTong, who only had 3 picks to work with. After a disappointing sophomore season cut short by injury, Deebo exploded with a WR 2 finish last season to stake his claim among the fantasy elite and is also the player with the highest value gain over expected in this draft. Hunter Renfrow was also a nice steal in the 3rd Round and just wrapped up a 1000-yard, 103-catch season in his 3rd year.
Draft Grade: A
Tani
1.14 — Mecole Hardman (-598)
3.03 — Riley Ridley (-50)
4.04 — Drew Lock (-7)
4.13 — Caleb Wilson (-6)
Expected Value of Picks: 730
Current Value of Players: 69 (-661)
Tani didn’t have a lot to work with but unfortunately, his one main shot with 1.14 hasn’t panned out. Interestingly, Tyreek leaving the Chiefs is actually the exact situation Tani could have hoped for when drafting Mecole Hardman but it seems the dynasty community and rankings have mostly given up hope on him taking advantage of any available opportunity.
Draft Grade: C-
Binh
2.01 — Devin Singletary (+193)
2.11 — Daniel Jones (-56)
3.11 — Benny Snell Jr. (-17)
Expected Value of Picks: 609
Current Value of Players: 729 (+120)
This draft class is nothing to write home (or Houston) about but if you can nab a player that puts up fantasy production at 2.01, that’s still a win. Singletary was able to scratch past 1000 yards from scrimmage last season and while Buffalo looks to be locked in on a RBBC situation, Singletary at least looks to be the 1A of that committee.
Draft Grade: B
Orlando
2.04 — Andy Isabella (-296)
4.15 — KeeSean Johnson (-5)
Expected Value: 304
Current Value: 3 (-301)
Lando took a chance with a pair of Arizona rookies and while Johnson was just a total shot in the dark, Isabella was a miss as well. It’s hard to grade too harshly as Lando had the third-lowest expected value to work with but a miss is still a miss, especially considering Terry McLaurin was taken 4 picks later at 2.08.
Draft Grade: C-
Kurtis
2.08 — Terry McLaurin (+3720)
2.09 — Alexander Mattison (+423)
3.02 — Jalen Hurd (-57)
3.06 — Josh Oliver (-31)
3.09 — Nick Foles (-23)
Expected Value: 427
Current Value: 4,459 (+4,032)
While this might not be the best draft in terms of pure player value, considering what he had to work with, this is arguably the most impressive draft since Kurtis was able to 10x his value over expected. That’s what happens when you hit on the 22nd pick of the draft with McLaurin, who’s been able to put up over 3,000 yards in three seasons despite some pretty shoddy QB play. While Mattison is still primarily a handcuff, he’s also been a nice grab at 2.09.
Draft Grade: A
JR
2.14 — Ryquell Armstead (-73)
4.02 — Drew Sample (-10)
Expected Value: 86
Current Value: 3 (-83)
JR essentially just had 2.14 to work with, which is not still not much at all in terms of expected value. You’re praying for a lottery ticket win and JR was unsuccessful with his pull.
Draft Grade: C-
Mikey
3.12 — Mike Weber (-19)
4.12 — Dexter Williams (-7)
Expected Value: 26
Current Value: 0 (-26)
Mikey had even less to work with than JR but I’m giving him an F for not trying harder to trade up and draft future Raider legend Hunter Renfrow.
