2020 Rookie Draft Grades

Time to judge the past.

Before we dive into 2023 Preseason Previews, it’s been three years since our 2020 Rookie Draft which means it’s time to do some grading!

Yearly reminder, this is an inexact method but what I’ve done is compare the expected value of the draft slot versus the current value of the player. I’m using the same values that our Google Sheet calculator uses (from DynastyProcess.com, which is also using FantasyPros Dynasty Rankings).

We still have yet to come remotely close to the insane 2017 draft class that saw a 55,000 value gain three years later. However, whereas 2018 and 2019 averaged around 9,000 points in value gain, 2020 has so far been much stronger at 21,000.

As always, there are some clear winners and losers. Let’s begin.

Jeff

1.01 — Jonathan Taylor (+2173)
2.01 — Henry Ruggs (-489)
2.14 — DeeJay Dallas (-71)
4.01 — Chase Edmonds (+5)

Expected Value of Picks: 7,584
Current Value of Players: 9,202 (+1,618)

It’s easy to forget this now but Jonathan Taylor was actually a bit of a surprise pick at 1.01. Dynasty players everywhere fell in love with dreams of Clyde in the Chief’s offense getting schemed for easy TDs and catching 6 passes a game. Does Jeff have a crystal ball hiding in that bare ass of his? Was he (accurately) factoring in that our league isn’t 1PPR? Was he just drunk? We may never know but it was absolutely the right decision regardless of the potential trade situation happening currently. Not to mention in 2021, JT was the No.1 overall RB and helped lead Jeff to an improbable championship run.

Draft Grade: A-

Kevin

1.02 — Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-6271)
1.07 — Cam Akers (-628)
1.12 — Michael Pittman Jr. (+2648)
2.04 — Bryan Edwards (-300)
2.12 — Van Jefferson (-75)
3.06 — Devin Duvernay (-27)
4.02 — Damien Harris (+465)

Expected Value of Picks: 10,183
Current Value of Players: 6,421 (-3,762)

On the one hand, Kevin has the worst value loss in the league for this class at -3,762. On the other, he had by far the most to work with and he’s still sitting at 6,421 current value which is good for 6th in the class. As mentioned above, CEH suckered us all but in our defense, it is still mind-boggling how little they’ve used him in the passing game. Cam Akers has been able to steady his value surprisingly well despite a brutal Achilles injury but the main winner of Kevin’s draft was Pittman, who has teased tantalizing potential in his first 3 seasons.

Draft Grade: B-

Tani

1.03 — J.K. Dobbins (-2069)
3.03 — Jalen Hurts (+3858)
3.04 — Donovan Peoples-Jones (+143)
4.04 — Antonio Gandy-Golden (-11)
4.13 — Collin Johnson (-6)

Expected Value of Picks: 5,324
Current Value of Players: 7,238 (+1,914)

Considering Dobbins has played 23 out of 48 games so far in his career, his talent when actually on the field has kept his value from dropping too drastically from the 1.03 position compared to say, CEH. This year will be make or break for him. The big steal of the draft for Tani was grabbing Hurts at 3.03, who had a near MVP season in 2022 and has catapulted up to the QB 3 in Dynasty rankings.

Draft Grade: A-

Chris

1.04 — Jerry Jeudy (-1031)
2.02 — Brandon Aiyuk (+3023)
2.08 — Justin Herbert (+3388)
2.10 — Cole Kmet (+305)
3.02 — Adam Trautman (-52)
4.08 — Blake Jarwin (-7)

Expected Value of Picks: 5,045
Current Value of Players: 10,671 (+5,626)

After a solid 2019 draft, Chris continued to build his foundation into a contender with his 2020 draft class. Similar to Dobbins, Jeudy hasn’t delivered on his draft pedigree but the talent is undeniable. Chris dominated the 2nd Round however, grabbing Aiyuk, who looks to be taking over the WR 1 spot from Deebo, Herbert, Dynasty’s QB 5, and Kmet, who just secured a $50 million extension that should solidify him as a top 8 TE.

Draft Grade: A

Mikey

1.05 — D’Andre Swift (-1063)
2.05 — Zack Moss (-251)
3.14 — Lynn Bowden (-16)
4.07 — Foster Moreau (-5)

Expected Value of Picks: 3,799
Current Value of Players: 2,464 (-1,335)

The Dynasty community might just have to come to terms that Swift just isn’t as good as they think he is. Or at least a bare minimum, that the NFL doesn’t think so. (Let it be known I was always a Swift hater.) (Let it also be known it’s only because I had Kerryon Johnson.) Anyways, if there is a place that Swift could flourish, it’s in Philly, so we’ll have our answer soon. As for this draft class, we’ll see if Swift can rebound and there’s even a chance for Moss, who could be the RB 1 in Indy after a Jonathan Taylor trade.

Draft Grade: B-

Zane

1.06 — CeeDee Lamb (+6307)
2.03 — AJ Dillon (+691)
2.13 — Tyler Johnson (-81)
3.05 — Eno Benjamin (-33)
3.09 — Jordan Love (+206)
4.06 — Gabe Davis (+742)

Expected Value of Picks: 3,409
Current Value of Players: 11,241 (+7,832)

2020 was Zane’s first rookie draft and he nailed pretty much every round. Lamb produced right away as a rookie and only continues to improve, currently at WR 3 in most dynasty rankings. AJ Dillon hasn’t been a smash but he’s been startable as a low RB2 for two years now, which is a win for a 2nd round pick. In the 3rd, Zane grabbed Jordan Love who has his chance to prove himself as a starter this season. And all the way back at 4.06 was Gabe Davis, who disappointed compared to expectations last season but still has an opportunity to solidify himself with Allen and the Bills offense.

Draft Grade: A+

Kurtis

1.08 — Justin Jefferson (+8127)
2.11 — Chase Claypool (+82)

Expected Value of Picks: 2,095
Current Value of Players: 10,304 (+8,209)

This really hurts to look at, as I’ve complained about 100 times to anyone who will listen to me that I nearly had two different trades executed to grab Jefferson in this draft. But alas, Kurtis got JJ and the rest is history. In case anyone needs a reminder, Jefferson is the 1.01 overall in dynasty and has set the NFL record for receiving yards through a player’s first 3 seasons. At 2.11, Kurtis nabbed Claypool, who looked like a future star in his rookie season but has since been trending downward.

Draft Grade: A+

Marlo

1.09 — Joe Burrow (+2823)
3.10 — Devin Asiasi (-21)
4.10 — Justin Jackson (-4)

Expected Value of Picks: 1,681
Current Value of Players: 4,479 (+2,798)

Not a lot to discuss here, from what I can remember Marlo went into this draft targeting Joe Burrow to be his franchise QB and walked out accomplishing that task. Three years later, Joe Brrr, Joe Shiesty, Big Throw Joe, whatever you want to call him, is the QB 4 in dynasty and the future is only looking brighter from here.

Draft Grade: A

Jason

1.10 — Jalen Reagor (-1373)
1.11 — Ke’Shawn Vaughn( -1146)
1.15 — Antonio Gibson (+150)
2.09 — Anthony McFarland Jr. (-143)
3.08 — K. J. Hamler (-28)
4.05 — Teddy Bridgewater (-9)
4.14 — Indianapolis DEF (-6)

Expected Value of Picks: 3,292
Current Value of Players: 737 (-2,555)

JTong had a lot of swings and with later rounds picks or even late 1sts, you want to be going for the fences. Unfortunately, he struck out on nearly all of them with the exception of Antonio Gibson, who put together a strong start to his career before taking a step back last season.

Draft Grade: C+

Anton

1.13 — Denzel Mims (-807)
2.07 — Laviska Shenault (-192)
3.01 — Joshua Kelley (-35)
3.13 — Quintez Cephus (-16)

Mims and Shenault join the ranks of Hakeem Butler, Miles Boykin, and Dante Pettis: receivers that I completely whiffed in my evaluation of. Damn, I kinda suck at drafting in this league? Nahhh, the NFL is just stupid, I was right about those players.

Draft Grade: D

Binh

1.14 — Tee Higgins (+5623)
4.11 — Brycen Hopkins (-5)

If not for Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins was on a path towards and could’ve been a WR1 in the NFL and fantasy. He certainly has the talent for it. Still, Higgins is an easy lock for consistent WR2 production and at WR 10 in dynasty rankings, a home run pick at 1.14.

Draft Grade: A+

Josh

2.06 — Tua Tagovailoa (+613)
4.09 — Josh Gordon (-8)

Hard to argue with getting a starting QB in the 2nd Round but if you want to nitpick, Herbert went two picks later at 2.08.

Draft Grade: A-

Orlando

3.07 — Darrynton Evans (-29)
3.11 — Philip Rivers (-21)
4.03 — K. J. Hill (-12)

Fresh off a 2019 Championship, Orlando traded 1.14 for Adam Thielen and went on to make two more Super Bowl appearances. The picks he had left, well, what can you really expect.

Draft Grade: C

JR

3.12 — Jacob Eason (-17)
4.12 — La’Mical Perine (-6)

Never a bad idea to grab a QB in the later rounds in case they can find themselves a starting job (see: Jordan Love). In this case, it didn’t pan out.

Draft Grade: C