2021 Rookie Draft Grades

Time to judge the past.

Published in

The D|League

6 min readAug 12, 2024

Our Rookie Draft is right around the corner but it’s also been three years since our 2021 Rookie Draft, which means it’s time to do some grading!

Yearly reminder, this is an inexact method but what I’m doing is comparing the expected value of the draft slot versus the current value of the player.

As always, we have yet to come remotely close to the insane 2017 draft class that saw a 55,000 value gain three years later. In 2018 and 2019, the drafts averaged around 9,000 points in value gain, and 2020 was much stronger at 21,000. In 2021, it dropped back down to 13,000.

As always, there are some clear winners and losers. Let’s begin.

Jeff

1.01 — Kyle Pitts -3,219
1.14 — Terrace Marshall -643
2.01 — Amon-Ra St. Brown +8,914
2.02 — Amari Rodgers -396
3.02 — Dez Fitzpatrick -51
3.06 — Elijah Mitchell +44
4.01 — Frank Darby -15

Expected Value of Picks: 8,133
Current Value of Players: 12,768 (+4,635)

Although the surprise pick of Kyle Pitts at 1.01 hasn’t quite gone as planned after a 1,000 yard rookie season, the talented TE is still only 23 and the Falcons offense looks to finally be on the up and up. At 2.01, Jeff knocked it out of the park with the selection of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who just wrapped up a 1,500 yard, 10 TD All-Pro season, and is sitting pretty at 1.04 overall in current dynasty rankings.

Draft Grade: A

Mikey

1.02 — Najee Harris -4,192
1.12 — Rashod Bateman -788

Expected Value of Picks: 6,625
Current Value of Players: 1,645 (-4,980)

Our reigning D|League Champion gets the award for most value lost in this draft, though they were not complete busts with their current value sitting at 8th in the class. Najee Harris’ dynasty sex appeal might have fallen quickly but the RB has put up 1,000 yards and at least 7 TDs in all 3 of his NFL seasons. And of course if we were grading trades of these players, this would be a different story for Mikey. But that’s not the name of this article, so —

Draft Grade: D+

Kurtis

1.03 — Ja’Marr Chase +5169
1.11 — Michael Carter -1065
2.11 — Larry Rountree -95
3.09 — Mac Jones -17
4.09 — Cornell Powell -8

Expected Value of Picks: 6,102
Current Value of Players: 10,086 (+3,984)

One year after grabbing Justin Jefferson, Kurtis nabbed another LSU star in Ja’Marr Chase at 1.03. While some might quibble with the exact order of the current top 3 dynasty assets of Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, the simple fact that Kurtis grabbed another one in back-to-back drafts makes 2021 a huge win for him.

Draft Grade: A

Chris

1.04 — Javonte Williams -2,569
2.04 — Dyami Brown -286
2.09 — Zach Wilson -125
3.14 — Matt Prater -16

Expected Value of Picks: 4,441
Current Value of Players: 1,445 (-2,996)

Like Mikey, Chris is 2nd lowest in terms of lost draft value but Javonte Williams continues to hold dynasty value despite a disappointing start to his career. Unlike Najee, it is injuries that has dragged Williams down — 2024 will likely be a make-or-break year for the talented RB.

Draft Grade: C-

Marlo

1.05 — Travis Etienne 2,642
2.05 — Kadarius Toney -230
2.08 — Pat Freiermuth +501

Expected Value of Picks: 3,687
Current Value of Players: 6,600 (+2,914)

Kadarius Toney is currently more of a meme than an NFL WR after a disastrous season in which he committed 5 drops on 38 targets (2 of which led to interceptions). Marlo knocked it out of the park with his other draft picks however, with Etienne fresh off an RB 3 season and Freiermuth developing nicely over in Pittsburgh.

Draft Grade: B+

Tani

1.06 — DeVonta Smith +2,949
2.03 — Justin Fields -247
3.01 — Javian Hawkins -57
3.10 — Kylin Hill -23
3.13 — Brevin Jordan -14
4.08 — Minnesota Vikings N/A

Expected Value of Picks: 3,156
Current Value of Players :5,756 (+2,610)

Tani stayed true to his Eagles fandom at 1.06 and took DeVonta Smith, which has paid off quite well even despite AJ Brown showing up and dominating the WR1 spot in Philly. Justin Fields was a startable fantasy QB in Chicago, though it remains to be seen if he can be considered a startable NFL QB after his trade to Pittsburgh.

Draft Grade: B+

Zane

1.07 — Trevor Lawrence -996
1.15 — Kenneth Gainwell -524
2.07 — Dee Eskridge -176
3.04 — Joshua Palmer +209
3.07 — Anthony Schwartz -30
4.07 — Gerrid Doaks -10

Expected Value of Picks: 3,046
Current Value of Players: 1,519 (-1,527)

It’s fair to say that the grading system is being a little harsh on the Lawrence pick considering the differences in our league versus a standard 1QB system. Waddle went at 1.08 but the rest of the 1st Round (including Gainwell) are essentially busts, so I think Zane is still pretty happy with his pick. Down at 3.04, Joshua Palmer hasn’t exactly been a steal but he hasn’t been a bust either, and has a chance in 2024 in a wide-open Chargers WR room.

Draft Grade: B-

Kevin

1.08— Jaylen Waddle +4,435
3.05 — Anthony Firkser -37
3.12 — Ihmir Smith-Marsette -18
4.04 — Cleveland Browns N/A
4.05 — Salvon Ahmed -9

Expected Value of Picks: 1,935
Current Value of Players: 6,294 (+4,371)

It seems Kevin always walks away from a draft with at least one hit and 2021 was no different with 1.08 and Jaylen Waddle. Although Waddle’s targets have gone down since Tyreek’s arrival, his efficiency has shot up and the two have formed arguably the most dynamic one-two punch at WR in the league.

Draft Grade: A-

Anton

1.09 — Elijah Moore -1,440
1.13 — Rondale Moore -737
2.14 — Rhamondre Stevenson +2,382
3.03 — Marquez Callaway -45
4.12 — Miami Dolphins N/A
4.14 — Kansas City Chiefs N/A

Expected Value of Picks: 2,429
Current Value of Players: 2,576 (+160)

While the Moore’s have been moore than a disappointment in their first 3 seasons, Anton was able to salvage the draft nabbing Stevenson at 2.14. Rhamondre struggled last year sharing the rock with Ezekiel Elliott in a collapsing Patriots offense along with missing 5 games due to injury, but the arrow could be pointing back up in Year 4.

Draft Grade: B-

Binh

1.10 — Trey Sermon -1,282
4.03 — Jacob Harris -11

Expected Value of Picks: 1,300
Current Value of Players: 7 (-1,293)

Binh essentially had one shot in this draft and grabbed Trey Sermon near the back of the 1st Round. Sermon has been on three teams in his first three seasons…but at least he looks to be the handcuff to Jonathan Taylor now? If it makes you feel better Binh, I was (am) still a Sermon believer!!

Draft Grade: D-

Jason

2.06 — Trey Lance -202
2.10 — Chuba Hubbard +102
2.12 — Xavier Jones -83
4.06 — Jermar Jefferson -10

Expected Value of Picks: 413
Current Value of Players: 220 (-193)

JTong didn’t have much draft capital to work with, starting down at 2.06 with Trey Lance. Luckily for him, 2.06 is a much easier pill to swallow than the haul the 49ers gave up for Lance. At 2.10, Hubbard has been a solid pick, providing startable fantasy weeks last season and finishing as RB 28.

Draft Grade: C

Orlando

2.13— Nico Collins +5,176
3.08 — Tutu Atwell -5
4.13 — Jaelon Darden -6

Expected Value of Picks: 107
Current Value of Players: 5,273 (+5,166)

Lando wins the award for steal of the draft nabbing Nico Collins at 2.13, who has 70x’d his expected draft value after a breakout 3rd season racking up 1300 yards and 8 TDs.

Draft Grade: A+

JR

3.11 — Dazz Newsome -21
4.11 — Simi Fehoko -7

Expected Value of Picks: 29
Current Value of Players: 1 (-28)

These sound like Madden random player creator names.