COVID-19 media conversation trends in Q1 2020
A short version of this article appeared in collaboration with DeLange Analytics*, a member of the International Association for Measurement and Evaluation of Communication (AMEC).
Update: Sadly, this text has aged badly. Since it was written, misinformation and coordinated disinformation have drowned the online discourse on the topic, dramatically shifting away from some of the possible trajectories this post envisioned in early 2020.
Somehow we all woke up in the same dystopian novel. Normalcy reigned supreme just a few days or weeks ago (depending on where we are located on the planet), but now we find ourselves in unchartered social territory: physically isolated but digitally submerged under a tidal wave of traditional media coverage and social conversations about a single, overwhelming global topic.
No topic in recent history has dominated the media landscape across borders, age groups and media channels so invasively and so consistently. Platforms like Sprinklr detect more than 19mln daily mentions at the current peak of media attention and Google Trends worldwide data shows that web searches for the topic have persisted at values between 88 and 100 between in the past 5 days (Mar 12–17), accompanied by a similar peak in global YouTube searches*(a peak of 100 indicates peak popularity for the term). Brandwatch data shows the global conversation exceeds 344M mentions for the last 3 months with English mentions averaging about 10K mentions of the virus every minute.
Myths vs Facts in Online Coverage
In this flood of online information, it is easy for misleading information to make its way through to global audiences so I was curious to what extent myths and conspiracy theories are competing with content focusing on fact-based scientific research. Google has taken this issue very seriously already, trying to scrub misinformation from YouTube search results, but theories about the role of 5G and the man-made nature of the virus persist in obscure online groups and comment sections.
“new culture of doing science research” (Science magazine)
Meanwhile, the gravity of the epidemic has also had a silver lining: the extreme circumstances have become a major impetus for fostering a “new culture of doing science research” (Science magazine). The Open Science movement has already been gaining traction in the STEM field as traditional publishing models and incentives undergo scrutiny and researchers encourage preregistration, preprints (making new research and fresh data available for crowdsourced peer review before official publication) and new forms of collaboration.
The pressing nature of the current situation has become an even stronger catalyst for such practices as researchers and medical practitioners around the globe tap into new ways of exchanging and accessing data on the newest findings of the virus and discuss them informally on Twitter threads and Slack channels.
This emphasis on quick research dissemination, collaboration and public outreach shows that with the right communications approach social media can become a powerful tool for spreading useful scientific information. In a sea of misinformation, local and international experts use their social media handles as a tool to send a well-targeted, clear, concise and accessible message to the general public.
Collaborating with artists who create impactful data visualisations plays an increasingly powerful role in sharing scientific content. A great example is the trending hashtag #FlattenTheCurve: a concept from epidemiology which has gained traction thanks to the syndication of a particularly popular animated illustration by New Zealand cartoonist Toby Morris.
So what do people talk about?
Using a search string with the top trending English-language hashtags and coronavirus-related search terms (in addition to the query used by Brandwatch for their Crisis Monitoring dashboard for the Coronavirus), I looked at global English conversations* to see how well content related to scientific research competes with subversive conspiracy mentions.
As everything in media analytics, comparison results depend on the extent to which the search string captures relevant information about the topic: our parameters can affect the representativeness of our output. For example, focusing on highly specific terms like open science, science communication, preprints and research collaboration, leaves us with roughly 310K mentions (the orange line) compared to staggering 1.9M references to various dangerous corona-related conspiracies and myths (the red line): i.e. that the virus is a genetically engineered, man-made biological weapon; that it was caused by 5G (?!?), or created by the CIA; or that gargling with bleach can protect you from it.
Adding the trending hashtag #FlattenTheCurve and capturing mentions of simulation models, epidemiology and virology-related research, as well as research data visualisations we see a much more optimistic picture of 3.3M mentions in the media landscape (the blue curve).
An even split until Feb 2020 and then a surge of science-focused content
It looks like until the end of February 2020-beginning of March online coverage was split between science-based and conspiracy-leaning mentions but this trend drastically changed in favour of science-related content.
There are several possible reasons for this shift. Sharing relevant new research and science information on a global scale requires some time for the accumulation of enough data and relevant results; before the virus spread to a larger number of countries and the situation in Italy started to escalate toward the end of February it was easier to be tone-deaf to how serious the situation; and soon hashtags like #FlattenTheCurve started to pick up in popularity in March.
As a result, content referring to research and scientific findings or referring to scientists and relevant experts has picked up in volume significantly in traditional and social media coverage.
Unfortunately, conspiracy-laden conversations are more likely to happen on the dark web, via private accounts or messaging apps so our data might simply be unable to capture how serious the problem is. At least it is reassuring that media coverage and public conversations have taken seriously the task of calling out myths and misinformation.
The efforts to take down misleading content range from coordinated content removal on social platforms like Facebook, YouTube and TikTok, to promoting paid ads, featured links and videos by WHO and local Health Ministry messages. Here in New Zealand, I regularly see many paid commerical ads on websites are replaced by government messages trying to spread fact-based information and guideline what to do during the pandemic.
Public Health vs the Economic Toll of the Pandemic
There is also another interesting shift in online trends. The attention of the general public, experts and the media from mid-January to mid-February was captured by the global spread of the virus and the increasing death toll of the epidemic (in green). Discussions on the financial toll and economic consequences (the purple curve) were starting to peek through but still lagged significantly behind health concerns until the third week of February.
As stricter measures and lockdowns started to spread around the world and the movement of people became increasingly restricted, the conversation about the economic consequences of the pandemic started to catch up with the concerns about fatal outcomes. In the first weeks of March, the two topics started to go hand in hand with increasing concerns about the economic impact and growing coverage on government bailouts and measures taken to soften the blow to businesses and citizens. Right now the graph shows that the conversation is starting to shift: focusing on the long term economic consequences of the current situation.
What lies ahead?
We don’t know yet, but as Yuval Noah Harari eloquently put it in the Financial Times: “every crisis is also an opportunity…If we choose global solidarity, it will be a victory not only against the coronavirus but against all future epidemics and crises that might assail humankind in the 21st century.”
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DeLange Analytics is an independent all-around research and analytics agency that boasts a full-circle of communications evaluation and market intelligence services.
DeLange Analytics: “We blend various data, disciplines and approaches to yield insights that make business value visible. We use technologies and human brain to find out what people say online and offline. We apply this knowledge to help improve communications strategies, market positions, products, and ultimately fuel smarter business decisions.”
