The next piece in the Phoenix puzzle
The Suns have turned in their best season since 2014–15 and are stocked with young talent, but they might be one move away from becoming a true playoff contender.
Sitting at 26–39 entering the Orlando bubble, the Suns have been remarkably competent this season. Whilst they haven’t set the world on fire in head coach Monty Williams’ first season, they’re a far cry from the Igor Kokoskov and Earl Watkins tyre-fires of recent seasons.
Part of this has been the development of young players, and part of it has been an injection of competent veteran play. Devin Booker played like an All-Star this year and earned his first nod, whilst Deandre Ayton showed signs of becoming a defensive difference-maker whilst consolidating his scoring and rebounding strengths. Kelly Oubre and Mikal Bridges also showed continued growth, and look to be a dynamic wing combination.
Pod-favourite, Rick Rubio, graced the floor with his passing vision, dishing out 8.9 assists per game. His impact on the Suns’ young core was evident, giving Booker more space to operate off-ball and improving the shot-quality of the team’s young wings. Aron Baynes also stepped in and provided excellent backup big play, setting meaty screens, rolling hard to the rim and moonlighting as a three-point marksman.
The impact these veterans have had on their younger teammates can’t be understated and with a more balanced roster, the Suns have shown real promise for the first time in years. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Suns of next season might compete for a playoff spot, but looking ahead they’ll face stiff competition to even be in the race for the eighth seed.
Sacramento, New Orleans and Memphis all have similar timelines and better records than Phoenix, whilst Dallas, the current seventh seed, are worlds ahead of the Suns.
This is a tough reality to face for a team boasting some serious talent, but a realistic appraisal of the roster is vital if the Suns are going to mount a playoff push next season.
In episode 63 of The Deep Two NBA Podcast, Gina Mizell of Valley Tales speculated that the Suns might look to upgrade at power forward over the offseason as every other roster spot seems set in stone.
Rubio is owed $34 million over the next two seasons and finished third in the league in assists, Booker is still an ascendant young star and the undisputed best player on the team, Oubre has finally found his niche and put up almost 19 points per game and Ayton has put together 19 points and 12 rebounds per game with promising defence.
The only underachiever in the starting five is Dario Saric at the four, and it makes sense that the Suns might look to upgrade here, with Saric an impending restricted free agent.
Saric has been underwhelming since moving from Minnesota in a draft-day trade. His best season came with the 76ers in 2017/18, but since then he hasn’t regained form. Conceptually, he’s a rebounding floor-spacer, but after hitting 39.3 percent of his 5.2 three-point attempts per game in 2017/18, his numbers have fallen off. He plays porous defence, and given that Ayton — for all the improvements he has shown — is still young and inexperienced, perhaps the Suns should partner him with a more capable defensive big.
Saric’s role on this team all comes down to money. The front office might be reluctant to commit significant long-term money to him given his limitations, but might elect to keep him should he accept his qualifying offer. That offer would bind him to a one-year, $5 million deal, which he might prefer because it would allow him to hit unrestricted free agency after the effects of COVID-19 have been minimised.
Alternatively, he might opt for security and lock in a long-term pact with the team, but it’s hard to see the Suns being comfortable with anything north of around $8 million per year. Whether he stays with the club or not, the four spot is where the Suns will look to improve.
Washington sniper Davis Bertans could be a free agent target but will be highly coveted by any team with cap space. Washington has also made it clear their intention is to re-sign the Latvian Laser, so a bidding war might drive the price up, and with only one elite season under his belt, Bertans might end up costing too much. Denver’s Jerami Grant could also be available, but it seems unlikely that he’ll leave the Mile High City.
After Bertans and Grant, the free-agent four market dips significantly, with veterans Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Serge Ibaka representing the cream of the crop.
Each would make a good addition to the roster, but none move the needle in the way the Suns might need in order to establish some legitimate postseason ambitions. In order to find the biggest difference-maker, the Suns need to hit the trade market, and one target stands out above the rest.
Orlando’s Aaron Gordon would be the perfect addition to this team, and coming off his most disappointing season as a pro, he should be attainable for a reasonable price.
By renouncing Aron Baynes’ rights and dangling Saric as bait, the Suns can clear enough space to incorporate Gordon’s $18 million cap hit. Saric would need to be signed-and-traded but might be attractive to Orlando, who have a plethora of raw, athletic wing-forward hybrids, but not enough playmaking and credible shooting.
Saric might stand out as an affordable option to remedy this issue.
The burly Croatian was traded alongside the number eleven pick in the 2019 NBA Draft in exchange for the sixth pick. Considering that Phoenix will likely snag a pick in the ten to twelve range in the upcoming draft, and the fact that Gordon’s value after a poor season is not equivalent to the sixth overall pick, terms could be reached. A sign-and-trade involving Saric, Phoenix’s first-rounder this year and one of Jevon Carter or Elie Okobo should be enough to seal the deal.
The deal outlined above should be enough to get Phoenix over the line, but if Orlando isn’t interested in Saric, an offer built around Bridges and 2019 first-rounder Ty Jerome might work.
Orlando would open up space on the wing for future Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jonathan Isaac, Wesley Iwundu and incoming 2019 first-round forward Chuma Okeke. Al-Farouq Aminu is also owed $10 million in each of the next two seasons and plays both forward spots.
In return, Gordon will benefit from the change of scenery he so sorely needs.
Orlando has shoehorned him into the three spot, where his sub-par shooting has dampened his offensive game. In Phoenix, he’ll slide right into Saric’s starting four spot, alongside Ayton. Gordon’s athleticism could unlock an entirely new potential for Phoenix, and alongside Oubre and Bridges, would give them a dangerously bouncy fleet of forwards.
Gordon would be undersized at the four, but he is an elite rebounder and plays good enough defence to get by, which is a marked improvement on Saric’s turnstile impression.
Offensively, Gordon’s ballerina feet would give him the edge against almost every matchup he might face. If a big comes out to defend him on the perimeter, he can use his tight handle to drive by him, and if he encounters smaller defenders, the Suns could play him closer to the basket and let him use his 6’9” frame to manufacture buckets. He’s an excellent finisher at the rim, converting at 68 percent, good for the 86th percentile among forwards, per Cleaning The Glass.
Gordon’s shooting numbers outside the paint aren’t pretty, but considering the fact that he’s spent his career in the spacing hell that is Orlando Magic basketball, there’s reason to expect he could improve them. Ricky Rubio’s distribution skills have allowed more freedom offensively, which has translated to better shot quality.
The Rubio-Gordon connection might be especially potent, considering the athletic forward’s penchant for hard cuts and lob finishes.
The Suns could play faster too. As currently constituted, Saric and Ayton prohibit the team from committing to pace, but with Gordon replacing the plodding Saric, fast-break basketball might become more realistic.
It’s an enticing proposition, and it’s hard not to envision a Shawn Marion facsimile: grabbing a rebound and dishing an outlet pass before thundering down the court to finish an alley-oop.
Gordon has never fit well in Orlando, and they seem intent on bringing in carbon copies of him via free agency and the draft, meaning he could finally be deemed surplus to requirements, especially after a down year.
A deal makes sense for both sides and would bolster the Suns’ playoff ambitions. The current core is still a ways off being a .500 team, and whilst development from young players will march the franchise closer to the playoffs, it might not be enough. An injection of dynamic yet utilised talent like Gordon could be just what the roster needs to reach its full potential.
