19 questions ahead of Raptors-Pacers
You won’t find a more comprehensive preview of Raptors-Pacers anywhere else.
1. How to stop Paul George
George is by far the Pacers’ best player. He’s in discussions to make his third All-NBA team, he ranks in the top-10 in scoring, and he’s stood toe-to-toe against prime LeBron James in past playoff series. He’s going to be a problem.
But here’s an encouraging sign: the Raptors did a decent job of stopping him in the regular season. George averaged 16 points per game while shooting 31 percent from the floor in four meetings against the Raptors. If that trend continues, the Raptors could be looking at a sweep.
Here’s his shot chart from their four meetings this season:
George’s shot distribution speaks to his propensity to launch jumpers. He’s absolutely terrifying when he uses his athleticism to attack the basket, but George isn’t really a slasher. He averages 5.4 drives per game, which is less than even a bench player like Cory Joseph. He also commits turnovers on 11 percent of his drives, which is substantially higher than someone like Joseph (4.3) or DeRozan (4.0).
The key with George is to keep him from going middle. If you force him baseline, he usually settles into the midrange jumper, or tries to crossover along the baseline to create a path to the hoop. But he won’t seek out contact like DeRozan, and he much prefers to stick to the perimeter.
I have a hunch that the Raptors will stick with Norman Powell in the starting lineup, so that puts the onus on DeRozan to check George. DeRozan fared well in that match-up, holding George to 7–24 shooting in their last meeting. DeRozan should be able to hang in isolation, but he can be lazy chasing shooters around for spot-ups, and that’s where George is really deadly.
2. Stat comparison
3. Who is Solomon Hill and why is he important?
Ask a Raptors fan that’s been paying attention, and they’ll tell you all about the importance of Patrick Patterson. The stats don’t jump off the page, but he’s a versatile defender, he doesn’t force his shot, and he’s a perfect compliment next to some high-usage scorers.
Hill is that same way. He’s a bulky wing that has enough quickness to stick with guards, and enough bulk to bang with power forwards. He gives the Pacers the ability to switch, and he’s liable to blow up many of the Raptors’ dribble-handoff (DHO) and pick-and-roll (PnR) action.
Look how Hill’s switch completely neutralizes Patterson and Joseph’s DHO.
Hill’s ability to handle the ball and finish in traffic also gives the Pacers a different dimension. Indiana only scores well in fullcourt scenarios, and Hill gives them the luxury of having four wings on the court without sacrificing anything on defense. He can’t really shoot (32.4 percent from deep), but the Pacers will lean heavily on Hill to match-up when Casey puts Patterson or Carroll on the floor.
The Pacers often turn to Hill to play power forward when they downsize for defense. They do the same with C.J. Miles when they need offense.
4. Good and bad Monta Ellis
The Pacers made a mistake when they grabbed Ellis in the offseason. The idea was to have Ellis be a slashing-and-kick creator, but he’s lost a step since his glory days with the We Believe Warriors, and he really can’t generate efficient offense in the halfcourt.
Ellis has always thrived playing PnR, but he can no longer get to the rim and finish the way he used to. He’s shooting 55.9 percent in the restricted area on three attempts, which is decent, but he only takes 2.7 free throws per 36 minutes. Compare that to 3.7 threes attempted per 36. That’s where Ellis is at in his career.
There are only two ways Ellis can hurt the Raptors.
The first is if he gets hot with the jumper. Ellis’ go-to move is to curl around a high screen before pulling-up at the elbow. He’s at 40 percent on the year on those shots (a totally acceptable figure for the defense), but when he’s hitting those, there’s not much you can do.
The second is if Ellis picks up a head of steam in transition and semi-transition opportunities. Once he gets two full steps, Ellis morphs back into the whirling dervish that breaks down your defense for kickouts. The key will be for whoever is guarding him to pick him up early before he steps across halfcourt.
5. Indiana’s midrange problem
It’s a bit ironic that the Pacers are trying to play smallball, but that they also rank fourth in midrange shots attempted per game. The idea with going small is to put more shooters on the floor to spread the defense. The Pacers downsize and then take bad shots.
It speaks to personnel. As mentioned previously, Ellis and George love working at the elbows (there’s a real redundancy when they share the court), but it’s not just their wings. Frank Vogel runs a lot of his offense through his bigs and they love hoisting midrange shots too. Myles Turner is a pick-and-pop or spot-up threat who, again, shoots a bunch of midrange shots. Even Ian Mahimni likes to try his luck from the dreaded no-fly zone.
The key here is to not overreact if the Pacers get hot. They’ll make some shots from the midrange, but the Raptors definitely should prioritize taking away the hoop, and closing down 3-point shooters. No matter how hot they get, Indiana cannot conjure up enough efficient offense if they’re mostly firing away from the midrange area.
6. What is Indiana’s team identity
The Pacers are very much a team without an identity, and it’s been that way since preseason.
Rewind 10 months back to last offseason. Pacers president Larry Bird saw where the league was trending, and put forth a plan to rebuild his team around Paul George as the power forward. He let all his bigs walk (Scola, Hibbert, West), then used all his cap room to amass a crop of guards (Ellis, Stuckey, Budinger). Bird envisioned a run-and-gun team with a walking mismatch in George.
There was only one problem: George didn’t want to play power forward. He bickered with Bird in the media about the position change, and after one shot at it in preseason (it produced mixed results), George moved back to the wing, and C.J. Miles was tabbed as the power forward. And while that effectively achieved what Bird wanted (four wings, one big), that lineup faltered midway through the season on account of not being able to defend, nor secure rebounds.
The Pacers then changed course and slotted in a traditional lineup with two bigs, but they didn’t have enough frontcourt talent. Lavoy Allen, Jordan Hill, Ian Mahinmi, Myles Turner — those are solid bench pieces, not starters.
So who are the Pacers? Well, they built a team to play fast, but oddly enough, they’re at their best when they play slow. What they really are is lesson in organizational structure: Having the star player in lockstep with the coach and the general manager is more important than schematics.
7. The importance of live-ball turnovers
I have the utmost faith that the Raptors can dominate the Pacers in a halfcourt game. A slow tempo favors the Raptors. Lowry, DeRozan, and Valanciunas are tough to stop in any setting, and keeping the pace to a crawl allows the Raptors to set their defense.
The only way Indiana can generate enough offense is through causing turnovers, and making it a fullcourt game. The Pacers are the league’s best team in points off turnovers (18.9 per game) despite ranking seventh in turnovers forced. Outside of Ellis, the Pacers don’t gamble for steals, but as soon as opponents cough up the ball, they’re off to the races.
Fortunately, the Raptors don’t turn the ball over very often. They hold the sixth-best turnover ratio (percentage of possessions ending in a turnover). But the Raptors’ offense does rely on precise side-to-side swing passes to reverse the ball from the strongside to spark weakside attacks, and the Pacers might look to intercept those.
The cost for the Pacers in pressing up high on those swing passes is that it leaves the lane open for drives if they don’t get the steal. But my guess is that Indiana will overload the ball and hunt for steals instead of keeping it in a halfcourt setting that doesn’t favor them.
Vogel’s scheme is conservative, meaning that they generally hang back to protect the basket, and don’t commit too many help defenders to the ball. But once their offense sputters, look for Vogel to turn up the pressure with a smallball lineup featuring Miles or Solomon Hill at power forward.
Ellis-G.Hill-George-Miles-Mahinmi — 20 turnovers caused per 48 minutes
Ellis-G.Hill-George-S.Hill-Mahinmi — 17.8 turnovers caused per 48 minutes
8. Will the real Terrence Ross please stand up
I’ve defended Ross in the past, but there’s no sugarcoating how horrendous he’s been in the Raptors’ last two playoff runs. Save for that clutch steal that nearly led to the Raptors beating the Nets in 2014, Ross has been abysmal.
Here’s two quick stats:
- 3.6 — Ross’ PER in 11 playoff games
- 40.3 — Ross’ TS% in 11 playoff games
Twice burned, the Raptors have learned a lesson I’ve yet to grasp: don’t rely on Ross. When he’s on his game, prosper. When he’s spaced out, have a backup. That’s what Carroll and Powell provide (more below). More than anything else, the Raptors won’t be living and dying with Ross as they did in previous years.
But that doesn’t mean Ross can’t be effective. He’s thrived in his role off the bench, and he’s quietly blossomed into the 3-and-D role player that many pegged for him coming out of college. Ross is shooting 40 percent from deep and holds the third-lowest individual Defensive Rating on the team since Dec. 1.
Granted, most of Ross’ work has come against backups, and rotations will shorten in the playoffs. But Ross still figures to be a useful piece to have against Indiana. Ross has always bothered Paul George on defense (dating back to Ross’ breakout game in 2013), and he’s the most laterally quick defender on the team, which makes him an ideal counter to Monta Ellis. Ross’ shooting ability should also open up more space in the paint for drives.
The trick with Ross is to get him fully engaged, which has proven difficult. Here’s hoping Ross can overcome his demons and submit a performance in the playoffs that isn’t totally shit.
9. Defensive match-ups for Lowry and DeRozan
The Pacers won’t get cute. They’ll stick George Hill on Lowry, and Paul George on DeRozan. Indiana has the ideal defenders to match-up against Toronto’s all-star backcourt.
The Raptors will likely try to run sets to draw mismatches. Lowry loves to screen for DeRozan, but the Pacers should have no trouble switching those. Hill is strong enough to body DeRozan in the post and George can pretty much guard anybody. The Raptors might also turn to Patterson for quick DHOs to force switches, but again, that won’t be a problem if they stick Solomon Hill on Patterson, then switch Hill onto DeRozan or Lowry.
Depending on who’s on the floor with the Raptors, the Pacers will also freely help on Lowry and DeRozan’s drive. Expect plenty of scenes like the one below:
DeRozan and Lowry are tremendous players, and they’ll still get their points, but it won’t be easy. Last time they played the Pacers, Lowry and DeRozan combined to take 47 of the Raptors’ 88 shots. They still managed to score 56 points and grab the win in overtime, but it would help a lot more if their teammates could step up and lessen the load.
10. How do the Pacers defend pick-and-roll?
Indiana keeps it simple. They force the ball-handler away from the middle of the floor, and drop their bigs back to prevent dribble penetration. It looks something like this:
There should be more space to operate with Valanciunas instead of Biyombo, but generally, there won’t be a lot of room for Lowry and DeRozan to work with — it’s been that way all season. They could negotiate more space with a stretch forward like Patterson at the top of the key instead of the flat formation they have in the picture above, but making that pass could invite Indiana to jump the passing lanes and get into transition.
In previous years, the Wizards and Nets opted to trap DeRozan and Lowry. I doubt the Pacers start out that way, but they might be forced to move in that direction if the Raptors beat their conservative scheme.
11. X-factor for Indiana
Jordan Hill — Hill is like a center version of Ross. His effort comes and goes, but he’s really talented on offense, and he can be effective on defense if he’s focused. Hill is their best bet in pick-and-roll, he’s a decent finisher around the hoop, and he can get hot from the midrange. If he’s on his game, Hill could give the Pacers a much-needed third dimension in their halfcourt offense.
Look, Hill isn’t some world beater (he’s pretty shitty on average), but there’s decent upside when he’s on his game. He’s pretty much the antithesis of Ian Mahimni, who is rock steady, but rarely amazes.
12. Can Indiana defend without fouling?
Save for the Los Angeles Clippers, no team fouled the Raptors at a higher rate (27.8 per game) than the Indiana Pacers this season. That allowed the Raptors to take 35.3 free throws per game.
The Raptors took 35.3 free throws per game against the Pacers!
Granted, it’s just four games, and there were extenuating circumstances that fed into that massive tally. The Pacers really didn’t try at all in their fourth contest (Norman Powell had 19 FTA). In the third meeting, the Pacers couldn’t keep Biyombo off the glass (he ripped a franchise-high 25 that night) and kept fouling him. That won’t continue heading into the playoffs.
But when you break it down further, there is some validity to that number. DeRozan and Lowry both consistently got to the line (11 and 6 apiece), and they were guarded by Hill and George in each match-up. That’s a really positive sign.
13. What to do at PF: the Luis Scola conundrum
Scola has been a great veteran. By all accounts, he’s been a great mentor to the rookies, he’s always ready for games, and he runs a mean two-man game with Lowry. Scola brings all the intangibles and he should be lauded for that.
But Scola shouldn’t see much of the floor against the Pacers. There’s really no need for him to play.
Patterson should draw the bulk of minutes at power forward. He brings spacing, he’s infinitely better on defense, and he moves the ball. That’s exactly what DeRozan and Lowry need. Patterson’s ability to switch onto Paul George and George Hill is key.
Carroll should get most of the minutes behind Patterson. After spending three months no the sideline, Carroll’s conditioning is a bit lacking, but he’s looked really strong at power forward in limited stints. He bodied up Paul Millsap and recorded four steals in 14 minutes upon his return, and led a massive 25–6 run in the third quarter on Tuesday against the Sixers. Carroll brings the same switchability that Patterson does, while being a more dynamic shooting and off-the-dribble threat.
Playing Carroll and Patterson will also help the Raptors’ transition defense, which as mentioned previously, will be put to the test. Bless his heart, but Scola is 35 and was never fast to begin with. Patterson and Carroll at least give the Raptors a chance to recover.
Ultimately, the Pacers have nobody in the frontcourt that could really impose their will against either player. Lavoy Allen is mostly a pick-and-pop threat, while Mahimni lacks touch and grace around the hoop.
Sorry, Scola.
14. How will Norman Powell and DeMarre Carroll split duties?
Norman Powell should be a shoo-in for Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for April after putting up 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.4 steals while shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 53.6 percent from deep. Those numbers are bonkers.
Powell has earned the right to start, and given how Casey cherishes lineup continuity, expect the rookie to draw the start. He’s been absolutely money on catch-and-shoot threes (50 percent over the last 15 games), and he’s a threat to score in transition. He hung 27 on the Pacers in their last meeting of the season.
That being said, Powell will likely be kept on a short leash, and Ross would probably replace him fairly quickly if he fucks up a defensive assignment.
Carroll should slot in as the de facto backup power forward behind de facto starter Patrick Patterson, while also picking up some scant minutes at small forward if Paul George overpowers DeRozan.
That leaves a minute distribution of:
SG: Powell 15, Ross 20, Joseph 13
SF: DeRozan 40, Carroll 8
PF: Patterson 30, Scola 5, Carroll 13
15. Frank Vogel’s pet plays
Vogel is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the league, and he deserve all the praise in the world for consistently constructing ironclad defenses. But he has never once had an offense that was better than league average.
The Pacers pretty much run the same plays as the Raptors. Here’s one where they dump it into the high post, then run pin-downs to free up a wing player. The Raptors run that exact same play for DeRozan and Ross all the time.
Here’s another cover from the Raptors’ greatest hits. The Pacers run a pick-and-roll on one side, before quickly swinging it to the weakside for another pick-and-roll.
The Raptors’ offense is far more efficient despite running the same sets because the Raptors actually have players who can get all the way to the basket, and they can draw fouls, whereas the Pacers often settle for midrange shots.
Vogel does have a few interesting wrinkles out of timeouts. Here’s one where they Mahimni deep in the post. Vogel likes to feed his bigs early, then ignore them for the rest of the game (sound familiar?).
There’s also some clever sets to get George open for looks. Here’s a nice little play where George sets a ball screen, then runs around some pindowns to pop open for three.
16. Who will stop Jonas Valanciunas?
Valanciunas only played twice against the Pacers on account of Kobe Bryant breaking his hand, but he absolutely dominated them in both contests. He averaged 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game while shooting 72.2 percent from the field. Not surprisingly, Valanciunas had the third-highest Net Rating on the team.
The Pacers really only have one reliable rim protector in Ian Mahimni, but since DeRozan and Lowry put so much pressure on the defense with their drives, Valanciunas is bound to get open for dump-offs and putbacks when Mahimni rotates to help. So long as the Raptors’ guards make an emphasis to find Valanciunas, he should flourish.
Indiana’s best bet to solving Valanciunas might be to downsize, but they don’t have the personnel to pull that off. They could do something like having Lavoy Allen at center, but their wings are such shitty rebounders that Valanciunas would just feast on the glass.
I could see Casey getting frustrated and pulling Valanciunas after some Pacers big drains a few midrange shots, but that would be a mistake. Valanciunas is too great a weapon not to use.
17. How much is too much Bismack Biyombo?
The Raptors really can’t go wrong with whichever center they trot out, because they’ve both proven to be effective. Biyombo absolutely dominates the paint and the Pacers wouldn’t get anything near the rim when he’s on the floor. He’d also shut out the Pacers on the defensive glass.
The thing is, Biyombo would have a similar effect on the offense. Here’s a snapshot of how the Pacers treat Biyombo on defense. Notice all the extra bodies swarming Lowry’s drive.
Biyombo brings security in terms of having a capable backup to fill in for Valanciunas when he lands in foul trouble. But I really can’t see Valanciunas struggling much on defense, which means Biyombo should mostly be used in a limited capacity off the bench. Something like a 32–16 minute split sounds right.
18. Likely crunch-time lineups
If the Raptors need defense, they’ll put Biyombo at center. If the Pacers need offense, they’ll put C.J. Miles at power forward.
19. Prediction
Raptors in five. Expect an ugly series. Raptors drop Game 4 on the road.
