Battle for second — How do the Raptors stack up against the Celtics?
The supposed “rivalry” between the Raptors and the Celtics goes one way.
There’s animosity between the two fanbases, and that’s hardly surprising — Toronto and Boston fans are uniquely grating in their own ways. But bad blood doesn’t make a rivalry. It’s not a rivalry without competition, and the two franchises have never battled for the same prize.
The last decade has belonged to the Celtics. Boston has a championship, two Finals appearances, and several Hall of Famers roll through. Toronto has last year’s clumsy playoff run and that’s it. Kevin Garnett once taunted Jose Calderon by crawling on all-fours — the Raptors didn’t even have anyone rush to the defense of Chris Bosh when Paul Pierce stomped him in the dick a la Draymond.
The two franchises exist in different stratospheres when it comes to pedigrees, and nothing outlines that difference better than the 22-to-6 disparity in national TV appearances. The Celtics got bounced in the first round for a second-straight season, while the Raptors are coming off their best season ever, but the Eastern Conference Christmas Day game will feature Boston and New York.
The Celtics probably don’t even think about the Raptors — Jae Crowder said as much this summer.
“Toronto is not a team we’re worried about,” Crowder told MassLive.com. “I think Cleveland is the top team. That’s what it comes down to.”
That’s all set to change this season, because for the first time ever, the Celtics and the Raptors will be in direct competition as they fight for second-place in the Eastern Conference behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.
There will be a real rivalry in the Atlantic Division for once. How will the two teams stack up?
Offseason changes
For the longest time, the narrative with the Celtics was that they couldn’t attract free agents.
Here’s how they made out this summer: they were one of six teams to get a meeting with Kevin Durant, they managed to pry Al Horford away from Atlanta, and Nerlens Noel might be headed for a homecoming. Sure, they lost two members of their rotation, but Horford more than makes up for that.
Meanwhile, the Raptors lost playoff hero Bismack Biyombo and replaced him with a Celtics cast-off in Jared Sullinger (payback for the Celtics stealing Amir Johnson last summer). Toronto couldn’t even land a sitdown with KD despite Drake’s heroic efforts to stroke him at every opportunity. (City too hyped up I’ll take the fine for that — took the fine for nothing as it turned out).
The overwhelming advantage goes to the Celtics.
Horford fits the Celtics like a glove. Being able to pass out of the high post is a must in Brad Stevens’ system, and Horford’s posted an assist percentage over 15 for the last four seasons. Horford also gives the Celtics a two-way center who can defend in space and stretch the floor. Boston’s ceiling in previous seasons was always limited by how one-dimensional their bigs were — there was always a sacrifice to be made on offense or defense.
Horford gives them the best of both worlds; he improves Boston’s pedestrian offense while maintaining their effectiveness on offense. He’s a do-it-all player who will look to make Boston a more complete team.
The Celtics also added promising rookie Jaylen Brown with the No. 3 pick and nabbed four-digit sharpshooter Gerald Green. Raptors fans might remember Green from the time he threw down a windmill to beat the buzzer in a blowout. Neither player probably won’t factor significantly into the Celtics’ chances.
Ex-Celtics center Jared Sullinger was the only addition of note for the cap-strapped Raptors, and Sullinger will be counted upon as an impact frontcourt player. Losing Biyombo definitely hurts the Raptors on defense (more on that below) but he also killed the offense. Sullinger is a slightly better player when factoring in both sides of the ball, and similar to Horford in Boston, the Raptors will benefit greatly from Sullinger’s all-around skillset.
The Raptors also drafted a pair of bigs in Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl that could conceivably produce in next season, but both players will most likely start the season with the Raptors 905.
Regular season
Vegas really likes the Celtics, so much so that Boston has the fourth-best odds at winning a championship. They’re +2000 while the Raptors are sixth at +4000. (The Warriors, incredibly, are -130).
They’re not alone. The ever-controversial ESPN Summer Forecast has Boston and Toronto tied for 51 wins. (#Proveem as DeMar DeRozan would say).
That represents a three-win improvement for the Celtics and a five-game step back for the Raptors. They could be right for both teams, and here’s why.
Boston’s strengths and weakness:
Swapping out Sullinger for Horford is a significant upgrade. Boston’s swarming defense was already elite, and adding Horford should only help. Expect the Celtics to continue ranking near the top in forcing turnovers, especially since Horford gives the Celtics another athletic big to spring traps and apply pressure above the arc.
The bigger benefit of adding Horford will come on offense, where a team bereft of talent could really stand to benefit from one of the league’s premier pick-and-pop bigs. Horford loves to set up near the middle of the floor, which makes him a perfect partner to play high pick-and-roll with a jitterbug like Isaiah Thomas.
The Celtics, however, will have two major weaknesses that Horford doesn’t address. Rebounding and ball-handling will be major problems for this team.
Boston ranked 26th in defensive rebounding percentage last season, and they lost their best rebounder in Sullinger. Horford used to be decent on the glass half a decade ago, but he grabbed only 18.8 percent of available defensive rebounds last season — a rate on par with Al-Farouq Aminu. Poor rebounding was an Achilles heels for Horford’s Atlanta Hawks, and that figures to translate over with the Celtics. A lack of rebounding could force Brad Stevens into scrapping his favored smallball lineups with Jonas Jerebko at power forward.
Ball-handling might also hamper the team. Thomas is the only reliable shot creator on the roster, and past that, he’s the only player who can consistently set the offense. Marcus Smart is a dogged defender learning to play the point, Avery Bradley is a combo guard, and the rest of Boston’s guards are too young. Granted, Stevens’ system eases the burden on shot creation, but he still needs initiators with the ability to execute.
That’s where the loss of Evan Turner in free agency really hurts — Turner was crucial in lifting the bench unit, and even helped the starters by serving as a secondary creator. Now the Celtics will struggle to even pair together two dependable dribblers on the court.
Raptors strength and weaknesses:
The Raptors will benefit of continuity. They’ve already succeeded playing their style — there won’t be any adjustments, or any confusion, as to how the Raptors will operate.
Toronto’s offense will continue to rank in the top-1o in offensive efficiency so long as Kyle Lowry, DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas stay healthy. That trio has produced the 10th, 4th, and 5th ranked offenses over the past three seasons. This year should be no different, if not even better.
Replacing the creaky Luis Scola and the stone-handed Biyombo with Sullinger should further boost the offense. Sullinger is a nice passer (something the Raptors have lacked), he’s a beast on the offensive glass, and he’s a solid pick-and-pop option. Defenses would routinely abandon Biyombo to help at the basket, and unless he was served up with pin-point passes, Biyombo couldn’t make teams pay. Sullinger can actually do real shit on offense.
Bringing DeMarre Carroll back into the fold should also help the offense. Owing to a knee injury, Carroll never quite found his groove last season. His efficiency dropped off from his time in Atlanta as Carroll flirted with running pick-and-roll instead of what he excelled at (making cuts, spotting up, leaking out in transition). With more experience and better health, Carroll should give the Raptors yet another spot-up threat (even in a down year last season Carroll hit 39 percent from deep, better than just about everyone on the Celtics), while giving Casey an option to go small with Carroll at the four.
The continued breakout of Norman Powell also factors in. He’s set to replace a wholly ineffectual James Johnson in the rotation. Powell showed in his rookie year that he can definitely do damage by leading fast breaks. Now it’s just a matter of getting his spot-up jumper consistent. A promising sign: Powell shot over 45 percent from deep on 3.1 attempts per game after the All-Star break.
Defense and minute distribution are the concerns for the Raptors.
Biyombo only played 22 minutes per game, and Valanciunas is an average defender, so it’s not like the loss of Biyombo is a death blow. But the Congolese center did offer a different option for the Raptors. In games where the opponent trotted out five mobile shooter on the floor, Biyombo was able to defend in space out to the 3-point line in a way that Valanciunas never could, and Biyombo’s pace and athleticism will be sorely missed. Nobody projects to be able to step into that role, and it could present match-up problems for the Raptors.
It also remains to be seen if Casey allows for DeRozan and Lowry to play top-10 minutes for a second-straight year. The Raptors learned of the importance of rest the hard way this season as both Lowry and DeRozan looked like a shell of themselves in the playoffs. Having devoted their down time in the summer to playing for Team USA, both Lowry and DeRozan might (and should) be scheduled for more rest this season. Cutting down on their minutes will have a significant effect on regular season wins depending on how much they rest.
Remember: Last season, Casey was in a contract year, DeRozan was in a walk year, and the Raptors were hell-bent on erasing the bitter memory of the Washington debacle. None of that exists to push them for the upcoming regular season. They have nothing to prove.
In-season upgrades
The Raptors have more talent than the Celtics when comparing their current rosters, but there’s one Chipotle-chomping chowderhead that could change that.
Boston has two more Brooklyn Nets picks, and several propects at their disposal, and if Ainge feels inclined to grab a mid-season acquisition to bolster the roster (probably a center upgrade over Johnson), he has the assets to make the move. Ainge certainly has the gumption to concoct a major trade.
Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri, on the other hand, doesn’t have the same war chest when it comes to assets, nor does he seem inclined to made mid-season moves. Ujiri sat idly during the last two trade deadlines, and even if he were to hunt for an upgrade, the Raptors don’t have many movable assets. Everyone who can be used to match incoming salary already plays a key role for the team, so any trade would need to net a significant upgrade or it’s not worth it.
If the Celtics are pushing for tops in the East come February, expect Ainge to grab an upgrade, while Ujiri hoards his picks.
Playoffs
Remember that slight from Crowder that was mentioned earlier in the piece? Here’s how DeMarre Carroll responded, as relayed by Sportsnet’s Dave Zarum.
“I think it’s a comment from a person who hasn’t been in a playoff situation. When you haven’t been on that level you don’t understand what it takes. Myself, going to back-to-back Conference Finals, I know what it takes. I think it’s a comment from a guy who hasn’t played at that level, sounds like a young (guy) comment.”
First off, humblebrag. Carroll casually reminded fans of his playoff success with over the past two seasons. Carroll was willing to play hurt to help the Raptors get to the Eastern Conference Finals, and the year prior with the Hawks, Carroll might have been their best player during the postseason.
Second, Carroll does bring up a good point with Boston. They are inexperienced since they lost in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Forgive them for getting swept by LeBron James (although the Raptors wouldn’t know anything about that — they took two games off a much-better Cavs team in the ECF), but losing to the Hawks was a really bad look for Boston. Worse yet: the Celtics got blown out in three of their four losses.
It’s not like the Raptors don’t know how it feels to be embarrassed during the playoffs. They nearly ducked out in the first round for a third-straight year before drunkenly stumbling into the third round. But hey, at least the Raptors have won a series.
Horford’s addition should help Boston significantly, and it should be enough to get them through Round 1. The Celtics still have weaknesses that will be exposed in the playoffs (teams like the Hawks with dominant rebounders, and guards that can trap will really tear apart the Celtics) and certain match-ups could prove to for Boston, but they’re more talented than the rest of the pretenders out East. The Celtics should be well-balanced, and even if their offense runs dry, their defense is ironclad.
But if both teams are healthy, the Raptors figure to be the better playoff team. They’re more battle-tested, they have more talent, and their weaknesses aren’t as readily exploitable as Boston’s.
But can anyone beat LeBron James?
Re-read the headline. It says “Battle for second” because LeBron’s team will always be first.
It’s too much of a longshot for Boston to catch the Cavaliers in the regular season. With a full year of Kyrie Irving, Cleveland should win 60 games. Sorry, Celtics fans, but Horford isn’t adding a dozen wins.
If everything broke right for the Raptors, if they stayed healthy, if Casey went all-out with Lowry and DeRozan’s minutes, then there’s a chance the Raptors could finish near 60.
But come time for the playoffs, neither team stands a chance. Biyombo was the Raptors’ only hope of stopping James last season, and even that wasn’t enough as Cleveland pretty much got any shot they wanted. As for Boston, the Cavaliers would just screen with whomever Thomas is guarding to get the switch against James — similar to how they worked Stephen Curry in the Finals — and just shred the defense from there.
The formula for beating James is to have an excellent rim protector, while throwing a bulky wing on him to keep him from bulldozing his way to the basket. Carroll and Crowder can do that for their respective teams — but they both lack rim protectors for support. And most importantly, both teams lack the top-tier talent necessary to dethrone the King.
So congrats to everyone who got this far in the story: Celtics or Raptors? It’s all moot anyway so long as LeBron’s around.
That’s why I look forward to this season. Hopefully a legitimate rivalry can form between the Raptors and the Celtics, because it would actually give the season some purpose.
