First past the (blog) post — Summer 2019
In-depth global election coverage for May 2019 to August 2019
This analysis series focuses on global national election events that seek to determine the head executive of a country. We provide information about election outcomes and context for upcoming election events every couple of months. This information pulls from our Rulers, Elections and Irregular Governance (REIGN) data set and quantitative forecasts from our forecasting team at One Earth Future Research.
Elections are central to many of our forecasting products and a bi-monthly overview of the state of global national elections provides us with the opportunity to share a valuable source of data that we rely on to forecast instability and electoral change.
Major Election Outcomes for May — June 2019
Panama
Type of election: Executive, single round
Election Outcome: Incumbent loss
Date: May 5, 2019
Vote share information:
Panama’s May election resulted in a narrow victory for Laurentino Cortizo of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), having secured 33.2% of the vote, roughly 2% above Romulo Roux of the Democratic Change party. The incumbent, Juan Carlos Varela, was barred from running, however, his Panameñista party performed poorly, coming in fourth with 10.8% of the vote.
Due to scandals involving the Panama Papers and Brazilian construction company Odebrecht, corruption was the most important issue in the campaign. Cortizo benefitted from a scandal-free personal history (although he suffered from corruption scandals within his party), and consistently led in the polls up to election day. However, while many polls had him leading by well over 10 points, Cortizo’s challengers over performed, broadly speaking.
In part, this may be due to the fact that all major candidates ran on similar pro-business and anti-corruption center-right platforms.
However, new campaign rules that limit the campaign period and prohibit private funding of political advertisements have helped break the monopoly the PRD and Panameñista parties have historically had on politics. In particular, Ricardo Lombana ran as an independent and managed to come in third, securing nearly 19% of the vote.
South Africa
Type of election: Executive, single round
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: May 7, 2019
Vote share outcome:
After 2016 municipal elections, which warned of a potentially poor showing for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), the party managed to keep the presidency by securing 57.5% of the vote in the legislature, a performance which was still better than many expected. (South Africa’s head of state is a president but they are elected by members of the legislature, making the country functionally quite similar to other parliamentary systems).
The election delivered Cyril Ramaphosa to office on an anti-corruption and reform platform after his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, was resigned in February 2018 amid a host of corruption allegations.
This election marks the first time the ANC has secured less than 60% of the vote, while voter turnout has also significantly fallen over the last two decades.
All eyes are now on Ramaphosa to see if he will be able to root out corruption within the ANC and turn around South Africa’s stagnating economy.
The ANC’s better-than-expected electoral performance may have given him enough of a mandate to implement his reform agenda, however, Zuma’s allies still hold key positions within the ANC and may make efforts to block Ramaphosa’s efforts. Absent significant progress on corruption and economic issues, support for the ANC may continue to erode.
Lithuania
Type of elections: Executive, two rounds
Election outcome: Incumbent loss
Date: May 11, 2019 (first round), May 26, 2019 (second round)
Vote share outcome:
After coming in second in the first round of voting, Gitanas Nauseda secured a wide margin of victory in the second round to claim the presidency, winning 66.53% of the vote compared to Indgrida Simonyte’s 33.47%.
Both candidates ran as independents, though Simonyte ran with the informal backing of the Homeland Union-Christian Democrat party. In addition, both ran on a center-right, pro-EU platform and sought to appeal to similar electorates.
Incumbent Dalia Grybauskaitė, also an independent, had reached her term limit and was unable to run.
In contrast to Simonyte, Nauseda is a political novice who is best known for his work as an economist for the Lithuanian state bank and public intellectual who appeared on evening news programs.
Simonyte previously served as Finance Minister and was criticized during the campaign for her decision to not apply for IMF assistance during the 2008 global financial crisis.
As Lithuania has a semi-presidential system, Nauseda’s primary responsibilities will be in the areas of foreign and security policy. In this regard, he has pledged to maintain opposition to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, affirmed the importance of the EU and pledged to help business expand into emerging markets, namely China.
Overall, this is more or less a maintenance of the foreign policy status quo.
Australia
Type of election: Legislative
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: May 17, 2019
Vote share outcome:
In arguably the most surprising election result so far this year, Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition managed to hang onto power, returning Scott Morrision as PM, after months of polling which projected a Labor victory.
After the defeat, Bill Shorten, leader of the Labor party, announced his resignation from his leadership post. Shorten himself is deeply unpopular in Australia and trailed Morrison in polling on who would be the preferred PM by a large margin.
Climate change and wage stagnation featured as two of the most important campaign issues, with Labor attempting to capitalize by making the environment and social spending centerpieces of their platform.
In contrast, the Coalition sought to maintain the status quo through prudent economic management and lower spending.
While Labor’s platform may have seemed more in line with public concerns, some have criticized it as being too ambitious and far-reaching, arguing its lack of a central message contributed to Labor’s defeat.
Meanwhile, others have simply pointed to Shorten’s unpopularity as the central reason for his party’s loss. Whatever the case, Labor’s new leader, Anthony Albanese, will have plenty of soul searching to do in the coming months.
India
Type of election: Legislative
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: May 18, 2019
Vote share outcome:
Leading up to India’s April-May general elections, many expressed skepticism that incumbent Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would be able to replicate its astounding 2014 victory.
Several regional and by- elections in seemed to foreshadow a modest rollback in the BJP’s control over the country. In the key state of Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the BJP lost a pair of seats to the Samajwadi Party (SJ) in by-elections which were seen as a rebuke of the BJP’s dominance of the state’s legislature.
Meanwhile, lack of progress on key economic issues, especially in the agricultural sector, were seen as a harbinger of poorer BJP performance.
However, Modi’s coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, secured 353 of 545 seats in the Lok Sabha (lower house), 17 more than in 2014. In contrast, the main opposition alliance, United Progressive Alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, managed to secure only 91 seats.
Rahul Ghandi, the party’s leader, lost his seat in Uttar Pradesh.
Modi has managed to cultivate a dual persona: fervent Hindu nationalist and ambitious economic champion who will propel India’s global prominence.
Electorally, this was a successful pitch as it allows the BJP to broadly appeal to multiple electorates.
However, Modi has not fully committed to either aspect of this persona.
This prudent political strategy leaves India without a full commitment to necessary economic reforms and a leader who, at best, turns a blind eye to discrimination and violence against Indian Muslims and low-caste Hindus.
Malawi
Type of election: Executive, single round
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: May 20, 2019
Vote share outcome:
Malawi’s presidential race saw incumbent Peter Mutharika narrowly hold onto his post after defeating two of his former political allies, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party and Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement.
After results were initially delayed due to allegations of voter fraud from both main opposition parties, Mutharika was declared winner with 38.57% of the vote, with Chakwera coming in second having secured 35.41%.
The dismissal of fraud allegations and subsequent confirmation of Mutharika’s victory sparked protests in the capital, and on June 4th protesters stormed a large government complex, demanding Mutharika resign.
As protests persisted, the government shut down all radio call-in shows on June 7th, accusing journalists of unfair coverage of the May election.
Despite coming to power on an anti-corruption platform, Mutharika has since become embroiled in corruption scandals.
This has eroded his popularity among young, urban Malawians, although he retains a loyal base of support among rural communities due to his investments in infrastructure and agricultural subsidies.
Belgium
Type of election: Legislative
Election outcome: TBD
Date: May 25, 2019
Vote share outcome:
Belgium’s May elections consisted of six simultaneous elections for all of the country’s parliaments (one federal, three regional and two linguistically based parliaments).
At the federal level, Belgium essentially holds two separate elections, one in Flanders and another in Wallonia, and then attempts to form a government based on the two outcomes.
Historically, this has proven quite challenging and in 2010 Belgium set the world record for the longest period of time without forming a government: 541 days.
May’s election results likely will not make this task much easier. In Dutch-speaking Flanders, far-right party Vlaams Belang saw a surge in support, though the relatively more moderate right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) remained the largest party.
In contrast, the Greens and far-left Worker’s Party won big in French-speaking Wallonia, demonstrating a widening political divide between the two regions.
Historically, Vlaams Belang has been ostracized by all mainstream Belgian political parties and excluded from government. However, N-VA leader Bart De Wever equivocated when asked if he would be willing to form a coalition with the far-right party, saying he would need to speak to the party’s leadership.
Inclusion of Vlaams Belang in a Flemish coalition would make difficult coalition negotiations between Flemish and Walloon parties even harder. We may see yet another record-breaking round of drawn out negotiations in Belgium.
Denmark
Type of election: Legislative
Elections outcome: Incumbent loss
Date: June 4, 2019
Vote share outcome:
Amidst a European political climate inspiring a great deal of anxiety over the rise of far-right parties, Denmark’s center-left Social Democratic party was able to not only deal a stinging defeat to the far-right, anti-immigration Danish People’s Party (DPP), but also secure a plurality of seats in parliament doing it.
In an election that centered on immigration and welfare spending, the Social Democrats secured 48 seats, which required them to enter into coalition negotiations with fellow leftist parties.
For their part, the DPP, who in the previous government had been in a coalition with center right Venstre, received only 16 seats, 21 fewer than in the last election.
The Social Democratic platform was a combination of hardliner anti-immigration policies and promises for higher social welfare spending after years of austerity.
This mixture of far-left and far-right policies clearly played well with voters.
However, it presented challenges to government formation given that the Social Democrat’s coalition partners do not share these anti-immigration views.
Despite this, party leader Mette Frederiksen was able to form a government on June 25th with fellow leftist parties by making minor concessions on her immigration platform while also promising action on climate change and welfare spending.
However, the majority gained from the coalition between the Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Socialist People’s Party and Red-Green Alliance is razor thin at 90 of the 179 seats in parliament.
Meanwhile, the announcement of the government formation was characterized as a fairly non-committal “political understanding.” Both issues could foreshadow difficulty in actually governing in the future.
Kazakhstan
Type of election: Presidential, single round
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: June 8, 2019
Vote share outcome:
After the surprising resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev in March, elections were called in June to essentially confirm Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who was already interim president. Tokayev was victorious with 71% of the vote, however, observers from the OSCE were unconvinced of the election’s fairness.
While surprising, Nazarbayev’s decision to resign and allow Tokayev to take his place is likely an attempt to manage his succession and legacy while he is still alive.
Notably, Nazarbayev’s daughter, Dariga Nazarbeyeva, has taken Tokayev’s old position as leader of the Senate, raising speculation that she might take over after Tokayev leaves office.
In addition, far from fully retiring, Nazarbayev retains influential posts as chairman of the Security Council and head of the ruling Nur-Otan party.
Despite the non-competitive nature of this election, it was not without hiccups.
Before, during and after the vote, protests broke out in the capital, Nursultan, and the city of Almaty, with police arresting hundreds of demonstrators collectively.
Though this may be a nuisance to the Kazakh regime, the demonstrations were neither large nor sustained enough to raise questions about the country’s political trajectory.
Mauritania
Type of election: Presidential, two rounds
Election outcome: Incumbent victory
Date: June 22, 2019
Vote share outcome:
Upending expectations that he would engineer his way into staying in power, incumbent Mauritanian president Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz announced in January that he would not be seeking a third term as president.
While Ould Abdelaziz, who came to power in a 2008 coup d’état, had reached his term limit as president, he oversaw a 2017 constitutional referendum that abolished the country’s senate in what was seen as an attempt to consolidate power. Nevertheless, the incumbent Minister of Defense Mohamed Ould Ghazouani ran as the ruling Union for the Republic’s (UPR) candidate in the June 22 elections.
Though it is impossible to know definitively the logic behind this decision, some have speculated that it is an attempt to perpetuate UPR-connected elites’ grip on power while others have argued that the military noted public dissatisfaction with Ould Abdelaziz and pushed a new candidate to ensure stability.
Regardless, it seemed exceedingly likely Ould Ghazouani would emerge victorious given UPR’s electoral dominance and the non-democratic nature of the regime.
Both main opposition candidates, anti-slavery organizer Biram Dah Abeid and Islamist-backed Side Mohamed Ould Boubacar, alleged irregularities and promised to challenge the results.
Despite the surprise decision to not seek reelection, it appears unlikely that Ould Ghazouani will deviate too much from his predecessor’s policies.
In addition to holding the same party affiliation, Ould Ghazouani has had a relationship with Ould Abdelaziz since 1980, was a key player in many of the events which brought Ould Abdelaziz to power and even briefly acted as de facto president in 2012 after Ould Abdelaziz was shot.
Upcoming elections through August
Greece
Type of election: Legislative
Date: July 7, 2019
Incumbent: Alexis Tsipras
After taking a beating in elections for European parliament in May, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for snap elections to be held roughly four months before the end of his term in October. Tsipras’ leftist Syriza party lost to the main opposition conservative New Democracy party by 9.5 points in May, while polling has consistently put New Democracy about 10 points ahead of Syriza since the beginning of this year. New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis has called on voters to give him a clear victory over Syriza such that he will have enough leverage to produce a stable government, however, despite his sizable lead, Mitsotakis may still have to enter into coalition negotiations.
Syriza’s popularity has been sagging for some time due to slow economic recovery and the party’s backtracking on austerity reversals in order to secure several large bailouts. Immediately before the European parliamentary elections the party passed a variety of tax breaks and pension bonuses to woo over voters, a move which obviously did not achieve the intended effect. This attempt at economic manipulation and the subsequent decision to hold early elections seem to reflect two things: Syriza is acutely aware of their own unpopularity and they are betting that, as unpopular as they are now, things may get worse in the future.
This electoral approach squares nicely with what literature on election timing in parliamentary systems tells us, however, this same literature warns that calling early elections can hurt incumbents by signaling weakness to voters. Tsipras may be right that things will get worse for his party in the future, but it seems the best-case scenario is that early elections will slightly mitigate the damage Syriza will suffer in the next elections.
Guatemala
Type of election: Presidential, two rounds
Incumbent: Jimmy Morales
Date: August 11, 2019 (second round)
Guatemala held the first round of its presidential election on June 15. Sandra Torres of the National Union of Hope party was victorious with roughly 24% of the vote compared to runner-up Alejandro Giammattei’s 15%. Incumbent Jimmy Morales, who is under scrutiny for campaign finance violations, was unable to seek reelection as presidents can only serve one term.
Torres first gained national recognition as first lady to Alvaro Colom due to her support for a variety of social programs and continues to maintain a strong base of rural support. However, she suffers from high rejection rates among voters.
Giammattei is most well-known for his role as director of the country’s penitentiary system when a police raid to regain control of a prison resulted in the deaths of seven inmates.
While he spent ten months in prison, he was ultimately cleared of wrongdoing. To the extent Giammattei can bring together conservative voters, he will maximize his chances of success, especially given that Torres’ ability to do the same on the left may be hampered by her high rejection rates.
The race is now between Torres and Giammattei is partly a function of several front-runners having been disqualified in the months leading up to first round of voting.
Thelma Aldana, who was attorney general while Morales was being investigated for corruption, was disqualified after being charged over a fraudulent hire and is currently residing in El Salvador due to an arrest warrant issued against her. I
n addition, the candidacy of Zury Rios, daughter of the late dictator Efrain Rios Montt, was rejected over a law which bans relatives of those involved in coup d’états from running for presidency.
Because the second round of voting was not announced until this month, we won’t have updated forecasts that reflect this change until next month. However, the country’s risk of election violence for the first round of voting was 34.41% and will likely be around the same for August.
Though there were threats of violence that delayed voting in some areas, the first round appears to have been largely peaceful, reflecting this fairly low forecasted risk.
The country’s coup risk increased significantly in the lead up to the election, nearly reaching the 62nd percentile of risk in June.
This increase in risk leading up to an election is quite common, while Guatemala’s coup risk isn’t worryingly high.
For context, Guatemala is ranked 86th in the world for coup risk in 2019. Expect July and August to be roughly as high as June in next month’s forecast, after which it should significantly decrease.
Nauru
Type of election: Legislative
Incumbent: Baron Waqa
Date: August 30, 2019
Nauruan President Baron Waqa will be seeking a third term this coming August, after having come to power in 2013.
While politicians almost never run under specific political parties in Nauru, Waqa’s block of MP’s performed quite well in the most recent elections in 2016, with only one MP who served in his government not being reelected.
However, Waqa’s tenure has been marred by allegations of corruption as well as intolerance for dissent. In June 2015 leaked emails showed that Waqa and his justice minister, David Adeang, had solicited bribes from an Australian phosphate company, a scandal which led hundreds of Nauruans, including several MP’s, to protest.
The government responded by arresting protestors, shutting down Facebook and suspending MP’s who participated in protests from parliament.
Aside from this autocratic trajectory, August’s election could potentially affect two other important aspects of Nauruan policy.
Currently, Nauru receives tens of millions of dollars each year from the Australian government to host a facility that holds refugees hoping to come to Australia. Conditions within the facility have been the subject of significant controversy, especially since an Iranian refugee self-immolated in front of United Nations personnel and later died in 2016.
While the facility is extremely important for the Nauruan economy, and therefore policy towards it is unlikely to change, mounting pressure could catalyze calls for restructuring the agreement between Nauru and Australia.
In addition, Nauru is one of the few remaining countries in the world that formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign nation separate from mainland China.
In March of this year, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited Nauru as part of a tour of Pacific nations, calling Nauru a “super good friend” of Taiwan.
Proving her point, Waqa has shown a great deal of animosity to Chinese presence in the region, accusing the country “buying their way” through the region and exploding at a Chinese envoy during the 2018 Pacific Islands Forum.
However, a new administration could prove to be more persuadable in the face of potential Chinese investment.
In addition to a large spike in coup risk in February, Nauru is forecasted to have a large spike in coup risk the month before the election. Between June and July the country’s percentile risk will increase by 51.45 points up to the quite high 83rd percentile.
Given this spike, corruption scandals or other triggering events will be important to watch for as CoupCast is predicting the presence of underlying structural risk for coup.
Remaining 2019 elections
Though there is a lull in elections between July and August, September and October will be a very busy time for elections. Below is a schedule of all other remaining elections in 2019.
Look for the next in-depth election update in September.
