Analysis | A refugee wake-up call
The Ukraine crisis highlights the possibility — and need — for global solidarity in responding to refugee crises
Kyilah Terry
One million refugees have fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion one week ago. At the start of the offensive, the Ukrainian Defense Minister projected that as many as three to five million would flee the country, while U.S. predictions ranged between one and five million. The European Union is once again facing a refugee crisis– but this one is already remarkably different.
Ukrainians have the right to visa-free entry — which means there are no legal barriers preventing Ukrainians from seeking asylum in any E.U. member state. While granting Ukrainians unrestricted admission was intended to incentivize domestic reform in Ukraine and encourage detachment from Russian influence, it also signaled an acceptance of Ukraine as a European state. This new European identity which facilitates Ukrainian entry, but excludes non-European refugees, complicates the unfolding crisis. However, this conflict could provide momentum and new incentives for building global cooperation on refugee assistance.
Since the invasion began last week, over 505,000 refugees have traveled to Poland, 139,000 to Hungary, 98,000 to Moldova, 72,000 to Slovakia, and 51,000 to Romania, and 47,000 to Russia with the rest dispersing to other E.U. countries. Such a massive movement of people, unseen in Europe since World War II, poses a challenge to the bloc as it did in 2015, which saw the arrival of over two million asylum seekers. However, unlike in 2015, traditionally anti-immigrant Central European countries have become willing hosts and E.U. and non-E.U. nations have pledged their support. This display of solidarity is cautiously inspiring.
Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Wąsik affirmed that Poland has “been taking steps to be prepared for a wave of up to a million people.” Yet there are doubts as to whether Poland has the capacity or political will to deal with such an arrival. Warsaw’s nationalist government has long rejected the idea that E.U. countries should share asylum seekers and a few months ago, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko manipulated thousands from the Middle East and North Africa to make their way into the European Union via Poland. Consequently, Polish border guards pushed back many into Belarus — despite criticism from human rights groups that this violated their right to claim asylum.
Neighboring countries such as Slovakia, Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic have also signaled their support to help Ukrainian refugees. These governments have begun installing refugee camps, evaluating existing accommodations, sending border troops, providing temporary protection, and suspending visas to Russian citizens. Aid has also come from the west. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser stated that Germany, which is still processing the over one million asylum claims made from 2015–2017, “will provide massive help to the affected states, especially Poland, should there be a large-scale influx.”
While hospitality towards Ukrainians is applauded, it has highlighted stark differences in Europe’s approach to migrants from North Africa and the Middle East. Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov told journalists, “This is not the refugee wave we have been used to… people we were not sure about their identity, people with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists.” Polish Deputy Interior Minister Wąsik has also described Ukrainians as “real refugees” in need of help, which points to a trend that in Poland, and the European Union in general, some asylum seekers are favored over others. This disturbing language is compounded by reports that African refugees are experiencing racism and aggression in their attempt to seek safety. For example, Nigerian students in Ukraine are being denied entry to Poland even after the Nigerian Foreign Minister raised the issue with Poland’s ambassador. In response, the African Union has urged all countries to “show the same empathy and support to all people fleeing war notwithstanding their racial identity.”
Fortunately, the 2015 refugee crisis and non-E.U. countries’ failed attempts at weaponizing migrants, have pushed the European Union to create a wide range of emergency preparedness measures. The European Commission has been working with other E.U. agencies, including the new Malta-based E.U. asylum agency (EUAA), to scale up reception capacities. Europe’s Blueprint Mechanism was also recently activated, which brings together key stakeholders to monitor the situation and take coordinated action. Further, the bloc has announced that its 27 members would take in Ukrainian refugees for up to three years without asking them to first apply for asylum.
However, the European Union cannot manage this displacement crisis on its own. On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States must prepare to respond to the very real possibility of an exodus of Ukrainians. While Central European nations have made unprecedented commitments, it is unlikely they can support millions of refugees without assistance from the United States and the broader international community. The refugee resettlement system is precisely how we protect vulnerable populations and the Biden administration’s increase of the refugee ceiling to 125,000 means there is room to welcome Ukrainians in search of sanctuary. The administration can also designate temporary protected status to all Ukrainian migrants already in the United States and work with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) to provide greater humanitarian assistance.
The United States and European Union, in their fight to protect democracy, have the obligation and capacity to offer humanitarian aid for those caught in the crosshairs of invasion and political instability. In accordance with UNHCR Commissioner Filippo Grandi’s call for governments to “keep borders open to those seeking safety and protection,” the United States and European Union should continue to prepare and accept Ukrainian refugees. In the long term, however, they should use the momentum of this crisis to revisit the Global Compact on Refugees as a framework for global collaboration in times of mass displacement. Up until this point, the bulk of displaced persons have been supported by the Global South. It is the time for Western countries to recognize that a sustainable solution to refugee situations cannot be achieved without international cooperation and must start with equitable, humane responsibility-sharing.
Kyilah Terry graduated in May 2021 with an M.A. in German and European Studies from Georgetown University, with a focus on forced displacement, European migration policy, and U.S. refugee law. She also received a Certificate in Diplomatic Studies from ISD and a Certificate in Refugees and Humanitarian Emergencies. Currently, she serves as a Congressional research fellow, in the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, and Border Safety, and a U.S. Institute of Peace research analyst in the Africa Center. She writes here in a personal capacity.
Read more from the Diplomatic Pouch on the current crisis in Ukraine:
Read more from the Diplomatic Pouch on migration and diplomacy:
