Analysis | “Aftershocks from Gaza”: The Immediate Conflict Zone and Neighboring States
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy
President Trump announced in February 2025 a plan to permanently resettle Palestinians outside of Gaza. Jordan and Egypt have sharply criticized this plan, especially since Trump designated them to take in the relocated Palestinians. This is but the latest development in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that has resulted in a complex web of aftershocks both in the immediate region and globally. Trump’s early actions — the proposal for U.S. control over Gaza, the termination of sanctions on West Bank settlers, and the imposition of sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) — signal a historic shift in U.S. foreign policy. The combined effects of these developments have created a cascade of changes that challenge fundamental assumptions about the Middle East, the U.S. role — and other “concentric circles.”
In the Spring of 2025, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy (ISD) will convene its annual working group series to analyze these changes. Experts from inside and outside of government will discuss the ongoing fallout from the conflict and provide recommendations as to how the United States should approach the region — and the world — in light of the war’s aftershocks. This article is the first in a series unpacking the spectrum of aftershocks from the Israel-Hamas conflict, focusing on the first concentric circle of the immediate conflict zone and neighboring states.
“Concentric Circles” Framework
To better understand the conflict’s sprawling impact, it is helpful to think of these effects through a “concentric circles” framework where each aftershock reverberates geographically outward from the epicenter in Gaza.
The first circle encompasses the immediate conflict zone and neighboring states, with the most damaging aftershocks. This includes military operations in Gaza, the entrenchment of deep political divisions within Israel, Israel and Iran’s missile exchanges, Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire, and the collapse of the Assad dynasty. The humanitarian crisis and the potential for increased refugee flows have also created pressure that threatens to destabilize neighboring states. Despite the delicate ceasefire underway, the conflict’s near-term outcomes remain highly unclear.
The second circle captures the broader Middle East region, especially the Arab Gulf states, Turkey, and Iran, where existing power dynamics have been impacted. The viability of the UAE’s post-Abraham Accords legitimacy faces new challenges, normalization of Saudi-Israel relations once again hangs in the balance, Iran’s “axis of resistance” is unraveling, and Qatar reaffirms its role as a key mediator. At the same time, the Houthis have threatened global commerce and energy security with attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
The third and final circle extends to the global strategic environment, where great power competition and international institutional frameworks are shifting and put to the test. The United Nations faces great strain, while renewed U.S. focus on the Middle East significantly distracts from other major U.S. strategic interests, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s activities in the Indo-Pacific.
It is essential to view these aftershocks not as separate entities but in relation to each other and to the epicenter of conflict.
Israeli Security and Political Transformation
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented attack against Israel, exposing a catastrophic failure of three of Israel’s foundational security principles: deterrence, early warning, and decisive victory. This strategic surprise created reputational damage for Netanyahu, his government, and the Israeli Defense Forces, pushing the government to pledge to ensure such an attack never occurs again — no matter the cost.
This extreme course of action has been met with widespread domestic opposition, mounting civilian costs, and international disapproval. As the Israeli government aggressively pursues its adversaries, the “zone of conflict” has expanded beyond Gaza also to include Iran, Lebanon, and now Syria. Within a week of the Assad regime’s collapse, Israel conducted 450 strikes and claimed to eliminate approximately 80 percent of Syria’s military capacity. Iran has also fired heavy missile barrages at Israel, which Israel successfully intercepted with assistance from the United States and other partners.
Domestically, the Israeli political climate is fraught. The right-wing ruling coalition faces deep and long-standing internal division, mass demonstrations, and the long-awaited corruption trial of Netanyahu. The ongoing hostage crisis with Hamas and the accompanying multi-front war has aggravated fundamental fault lines in modern Israeli society, raising long-simmering questions about Netanyahu’s leadership and the foundations of Israeli national identity. The new Trump administration adds further unpredictability to Netanyahu’s decision-making and Israeli politics. The removal of sanctions against West Bank settler violence and Trump’s social media video of plans to turn Gaza into a luxury resort called “TRUMP GAZA” signal that the Trump administration may embolden Netanyahu.
The Palestinian Political Landscape
The future for Palestinians and Palestine is even murkier. Hamas’ power has been significantly diminished, as its role in a successor governing structure within Gaza is a non-starter for Israel, the United States, and many Palestinians.
Simultaneously, the discredited Palestinian Authority (PA) has had little success in reviving its standing internationally or within the territories. PA faces a variety of external and internal challenges — such as aggressive Israeli settlement expansion, calls for full annexation by senior Israeli leaders, unchecked settler violence, and rampant corruption and unaccountability — that threaten its viability as a future governance structure.
A Crumbling Neighborhood
Overall, the neighborhood — rarely stable — has seen a year of renewed volatility. Dragged into the conflict by Hezbollah, Lebanon has elected both a new president and prime minister and must determine whether it can implement the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Jordan already hosts more than two million Palestinians and is concerned about additional mass influxes of displaced Palestinians. To the southwest of Gaza, Egypt plays a pivotal role as a mediator in the Israel-Gaza conflict, working alongside Qatar to facilitate negotiations and humanitarian aid and striving to shield itself from potential refugee influxes. On December 7, 2024, the Assad government in Syria imploded after more than a decade of civil war, further adding to the neighborhood’s instability. Amid this leadership uncertainty, the absence of a central authority risks creating a power vacuum and opportunities for extremist actors such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Its staying power, governing capabilities, and political direction all remain unknown.
Within just this first circle of the epicenter’s immediate surroundings, there are already numerous stakeholders who are all not only impacted by the conflict but also shape what the response will look like. Because of the geographic proximity to the conflict, actors within this circle feel the most direct impact and devastation. Gaza faces the enormous task of rebuilding while neighboring countries contend with the influx of refugees and the overall instability that a conflict brings. These impacts, as well as how actors respond to them, then reverberate into the outer circles, directly shaping the effects on the broader region and the world.
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