Analysis | Finding new avenues for diplomacy in Sudan’s civil war
Fighting between rival factions of Sudan’s military continues to tear the country apart. Outside actors in Africa and beyond must step up diplomatic efforts to stop the violence.
Chidi Blyden and Jarrett Dang
The civil war in Sudan between factions of the military vying for power has plunged one of Africa’s largest and most strategically important nations into a civil war, jeopardizing stability in East Africa.
The conflict has seen the national armed forces, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, fighting for control of the country against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. Over the past nine months, civilians have been caught in the crossfire, resulting in over 9,000 deaths as of October 2023 and becoming “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history,” according to UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths.
Instability in Sudan — in the most severe case, state collapse — could cascade into a regional crisis that sparks crises in fragile neighbors like Chad, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Sudan, leading to even more migration, human suffering, and political uncertainty. Despite outside attempts at brokering a long-term ceasefire, the war between the SAF and RSF rages on, killing and displacing more civilians each day.
African leaders, along with global partners like the United States, should thus ramp up diplomatic engagement with the warring factions and look for new ways to bring an end to the fighting.
The origins of a civil conflict
In April 2019, following months of civilian-led pro-democracy protests, the SAF and RSF removed longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir from power and established the Transitional Military Council, ending his 30-year rule. Civilian groups continued their efforts to promote democracy through the Transitional Sovereignty Council, and in September 2019 reached an agreement with al-Burhan and Hemedti on a path toward elections and popular rule.
The installation of this transitional government, which included power-sharing between civilian and military members, under Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, led to an outpouring of international engagement and aid. Many international organizations, including the World Bank, resumed operations in the country, providing the government with much-needed funding and the population with development assistance and governance support.
Among the most notable of these developments was the country’s re-engagement with the United States, which began to undo its campaign to isolate Sudan after the al-Bashir regime provided refuge to Osama bin Laden in the early 1990s. President Joe Biden appointed the first U.S. ambassador to the country since 1995, and America became one of Sudan’s leading aid providers.
This period of democratization and optimism suddenly ended in October 2021 when al-Burhan and the SAF attempted to seize power in a coup d’état, detaining several key civilian members of the transitional government including Hamdok and other civilian leaders. While pressure from Sudanese and international actors prevailed, the military had effectively taken the reins of power, setting up a clash between al-Burhan and Hemedti for political control and essentially dissolving any attempts at the civilian transition plan.
A war of two generals
Fighting between the SAF and the RSF began in April 2023 and quickly engulfed the capital, Khartoum, prompting foreign governments to evacuate diplomats and issue evacuation orders for their citizens. The conflict has since spread throughout the country, internally displacing millions of people and sending refugees pouring across Sudan’s borders into neighboring states, most notably Chad and Egypt.
The military situation remains fluid, with the RSF gaining territory in the west and forcing al-Burhan to move his government from Khartoum to Port Sudan in the northeast. Peace talks have thus far remained elusive despite international attempts at mediation. Meanwhile, outside actors like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are throwing their lot in with either side, further complicating the situation.
al-Burhan and Hemedti’s power struggle has effectively brought the country to a standstill and inflicted dire consequences on the Sudanese people. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the conflict has created 5.9 million internally displaced people and 1.4 million refugees, while more than half of the country’s 45 million people need humanitarian assistance. The fighting has also worsened violence in the troubled Darfur region, which was the site of a genocide that killed over 200,000 in the mid-2000s. Despite the bleak outlook, the conflict could come to an end if both parties can be convinced to find common ground around the future and prosperity of Sudan.
Recommendations for Next Steps
In the last few weeks, the RSF has agreed to work towards a ceasefire with the oversight of countries within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African regional bloc. RSF leader Hemedti most recently traveled to Kenya and Ethiopia and other East African nations, meeting with regional heads of state and committed to ending the nine-month civil war and transitioning to a pro-democratic civilian government.
The integral support of former Prime Minister and Civilian Transitional Government leader Abdalla Hamdok is a positive sign that there is civilian leadership, once appointed by the people, willing to support the transition to peace. His influence has already helped broker face-to-face meetings between Hemedti and ousted parliamentary leaders. But more is needed. In order to reinvigorate a process that will bring a stop to the ongoing war, many parties will need to help convene, coordinate efforts, mobilize activities, and act swiftly with the interests of the Sudanese people as their motivation.
Convene and Coordinate
For its part, the United States should continue to leverage its international convening power to bring people to the table for talks, including all of the transnational countries with a stake in Sudan’s security and prosperity, to negotiate a ceasefire peacefully.
The U.S.–Saudi Arabia-led Jeddah peace talks in early April 2023 provided swift and senior-level American and Saudi attention to the crisis in the few weeks after the conflict erupted. However, momentum was lost without consistent, collaborative, and inclusive participation from all affected by the conflict — including African leaders and civilian participation — and has since fizzled. This should not be a deterrent to future engagement.
The United States has had success leading negotiations in Sudan and South Sudan and retains deep experience in the Horn of Africa and Middle East among its most seasoned diplomats. With this history, the United States should strive to convene willing parties, coordinate negotiation efforts, and mobilize aid and diaspora contributions. Acting urgently will help alleviate unnecessary loss of life, stem growing food/aid insecurity, and avert a dire humanitarian situation.
The United States has long played a vital role in supporting negotiations and shuttle diplomacy. The United States should assign a credible Special Envoy to Sudan willing and able to coordinate multiple diplomatic efforts under one tent. African and Arab leadership from the major regional economic communities and multilateral organizations — particularly the African Union — must collaborate to empower local leadership left in the country and at the regional levels.
Mobilize and Act
Following the evacuation of international citizens from Sudan, there was a noticeable silence and lack of active intervention from the international community in condemning the violence in Sudan, the growing humanitarian crisis, and atrocities toward civilians. To date, Sudan has only received 40% of the funds requested for the refugee response program and $1.1 billion of the $2.7 billion requested by the United Nations for humanitarian assistance. More needs to be done to galvanize the international community to commit the funds that have been pledged to help this conflict.
While there may be sporadic Western intervention in Sudan, African leaders have taken in thousands of refugees and exercised steady, but costly, patience to allow the conflict to “ripen” to a point of maturation to allow for constructive dialogue. Sudanese diasporas worldwide and civil society, particularly those focused on women’s rights in conflict, have invaluable experience and connections to the various communities that can help steer a dialogue toward a peaceful resolution.
Sudan also has many qualified diplomats and civil servants employed worldwide who could be recalled to return to public service in their country to shepherd the next phase of negotiations. If these groups are willing to collaborate, the combination of these actors working together could provide the transitional government architecture and implementation plan with lasting and rooted solutions borne out of a depth of Sudanese experience.
Facilitating Dialogue
Now that military solutions have been tried and might has failed, the next step is dialogue. However, this next attempt at dialogue must be carefully calibrated, include the leaders from both warring factions, and encourage participation from a wide range of actors including regional countries affected by the conflict, the Sudanese diaspora and civil society, multilateral organizations, and Western countries with an interest in Sudan’s long-term democracy and security. The U.S. expertise and role could not be more needed at this juncture in the conflict. Now is the time to galvanize these groups and the world’s leadership for peace.
Chidi Blyden is the Deputy Chief Executive Officer of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University in the Security Studies Program. Before joining MCC, Ms. Blyden served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, where she managed the Department of Defense’s relationships with 53 African nations. She has over 15 years of government service and served in the Obama Administration as a Special Assistant in DOD’s Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy — African Affairs and as the Africa Peacekeeping Advisor in DOD’s Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy — Stability and Humanitarian Affairs.
Jarrett Dang is a research assistant and Edward Weintal Scholar at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. He is also a graduate student in the Master of Science in Foreign Service program concentrating in international development. Follow him on Twitter/X @dangjarrett.
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