Analysis | How technology is changing diplomacy
And how you can prepare
This article is the third, and final, part of a miniseries on the relationship between technological innovation and diplomatic practice.
It is part of ISD’s series, “A better diplomacy,” which highlights innovators and their big ideas for how to make diplomacy more effective, resilient, and adaptive in the twenty-first century.
Innovations hurtling our way in the next decade will change everything, including the way diplomats conduct business.
Revolutions on the horizon
As technology advances and innovations build on top of each other, it can be difficult to separate real progress from hype. Will we all spend our days in the metaverse by the end of the decade? Or perhaps we’ll finally have flying cars? The Danish proverb rings true, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” And yet predict we shall, looking at three technologies that will change diplomacy: artificial intelligence, open-source data, and low-earth orbit internet. Combined they could transform the way we establish trust, communicate with global audiences, and understand adversaries. That’s why public sector leaders need to look over the horizon at the new roads ahead, putting into action now moves that will give front-line employees the autonomy they will need to tackle the challenges to come.
Artificial intelligence
Governments have used modern propaganda and disinformation tactics since at least World War II. Today’s methods from totalitarian regimes are far more sophisticated than the rudimentary leaflets and radio broadcasts from 70 years ago. New tools powered by artificial intelligence are frightening in their power — we could soon be entering into an era in which anyone with a few keystrokes could create convincing videos of world leaders that are completely fictitious.
The BBC has a series built on this premise — a shadowy government agency manipulates London’s closed-circuit camera feeds to frame the innocent and obscure the true culprit’s identity. It’s easy to imagine this scenario playing out in even largely free democratic societies (after all, totalitarian regimes don’t typically need excuses to jail opponents).
As if deep-fake videos aren’t bad enough, sophisticated AI can also convincingly mimic human writing. Imagine a bad actor deploying AI bots to social media channels, peppering the internet with “firsthand” accounts of “mistreatment” at the hands of a provincial government. This could be just the pretext for a central government faction to launch an armed offensive against an independent region. The accounts, replete with videos and detailed text, would be complete works of fiction. But it would take days for international observers to debunk these false accounts, and by then the narrative could stick. The inverse is equally troubling — real-life injustice and government abuse dismissed as merely an AI-fueled misinformation campaign instigated by foreign rivals.
Open-source data
As Vladimir Putin amassed forces on Ukraine’s border in late 2021 to prepare for a further invasion, observers from around the world used publicly available data to paint a vivid picture. Satellite imagery, combined with first-hand accounts on the ground (recounted on apps like Telegram), gave the world a clear understanding of the situation and made it difficult for the Kremlin to deny reality.
While open-source data can be a force for good, giving civil society the tools to pull back the veil of secrecy under authoritarian regimes, bad actors can also exploit public data for malicious purposes. Actor Shia Labeouf experienced this firsthand when far-right internet trolls repeatedly disrupted his art project. The exhibit, first at a museum in New York, involved a live-stream camera to which participants could speak, but had to be moved to New Mexico after the hosting organization cited security concerns following far-right demonstrators. Once again, far-right groups used public data to track down the camera, forcing Labeouf and collaborators to move it to an “undisclosed location.” Yet it took a mere 48 hours before a cabal of sleuthing trolls again tracked the camera to a remote farm in Tennessee, thanks to aircraft flying overhead on the live stream. Even moving the camera to Liverpool, UK, couldn’t keep it from vandalism.
Like most technology, the easy availability of massive amounts of data has its uses and, conversely, exposes society to new vulnerabilities.
Low-earth orbit internet
Upper-income economies boast internet connectivity rates that encompass virtually their entire populations, and yet, according to Our World in Data, the poorest countries in the world, “including Eritrea, Somalia, Guinea-Bissau, the Central African Republic, Niger, and Madagascar — fewer than 5% are online.”
These rates could change virtually overnight if satellite-based internet connectivity becomes a reality. One company, Starlink, wants to put thousands of small satellites in low-earth orbit, blanketing much of the globe in radio waves and allowing people in remote areas to access high-speed internet. This connectivity has the potential to revolutionize economies in lower-income countries, at last putting the vast opportunity to learn, trade, and connect into the hands of ordinary people in sub-Saharan Africa.
Beyond bringing connectivity to areas lacking infrastructure, low-earth orbit internet could change the balance of power away from authoritarian regimes. For example, Starlink provided Ukrainian forces access to its system after local cell towers went dark. Thousands of people were able to reestablish contact with the outside world after connecting to Starlink — a fundamental need for anyone trapped in a war of an outside aggressor’s choosing.
Preparing for the future
How should public sector officials ready themselves for rapid changes on the horizon? Much will be a function of the talent government agencies attract and retain and the agility they inject into their organizational structure. As I have written before, the State Department ought to embrace modern management practices to foster a dynamic and innovative work culture. The absence of agility means only one thing — obsolescence. Government leaders need to anticipate the rapid changes ahead and put plans into place now that will grant front-line officials the freedom they need to overcome new and unforeseen problems. Rigid structures predicated on twentieth-century realities have no place in a world of deep-fakes, big data, and 24–7 connectivity.
Zed Tarar is an MBA candidate at London Business School, where he works with web3 startups. He has worked in five countries as a U.S. diplomat.
Disclaimer: While Zed Tarar is a career U.S. diplomat, the views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of State or the U.S. government.
Read the first two articles in the miniseries on technology and diplomacy:
