Analysis | Santa’s Got Company
Dr. Kelly McFarland
This article is a piece from Kelly’s Substack newsletter Inflection Point, discussing the geopolitical and transnational challenges facing America and the world today.
When you think about the Arctic, what comes to mind? For many of us, it’s images of reindeer, polar bears, and maybe even Santa Claus. But have you ever thought of the Arctic as a geopolitical hotspot? You should.
This past summer, the Pentagon released its new Arctic strategy, which highlights the growing risk of regional instability due to Russian and Chinese activities. The Russians, for instance, have “reopened hundreds of Soviet-era military sites in the Arctic.” Meanwhile, the Kremlin clapped back at the U.S. Government’s pessimistic outlook, describing Russian and Chinese joint activities as efforts to build regional predictability and stability.
Why is this happening now?
The Arctic is ground zero for climate change. The High North is warming three times faster than the rest of the planet, causing a decline in winter sea ice and opening new trade routes in the summer months. As I wrote in an Institute for the Study of Diplomacy report:
“the rapidly melting sea ice creates an Arctic amplification process where once-reflective surfaces now absorb heat, boosting the temperatures further and leading the region on a one-way trip to an unpredictable environment and ecosystem. The resultant thawed permafrost releases exponentially higher levels of both methane and CO2 into the atmosphere, which accelerates the cyclical engine of even higher temperatures and increased thaws.”
In short, the Arctic is warming faster than any other spot on the planet, and, unlike Vegas, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic, as changing weather up north creates rising global seas, more severe storms, and higher temperatures.
The emergence of this new environment creates a number of challenges and opportunities. On the opportunities side, the melting ice offers the potential to capture huge amounts of untapped natural resources. “The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic could contain 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 90 billion barrels of oil, or 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 percent of oil.” As one Arctic specialist notes, “it’s not just about hydrocarbons. The Arctic holds vast potential in renewables, including wind, hydro, geothermal, and solar,” along with rare earth minerals critical to the tech industry. Moreover,
“new polar routes mean shortened transit times and significant commercial advantages for trade-focused nations like China, akin to the benefits to Europe and the United States following the opening of the Panama Canal over 100 years ago. By one estimate, ships taking the polar route from Shanghai to Hamburg, instead of the traditional route across the Indian Ocean, would be able to shave 2,800 nautical miles off the journey.”
While the opportunities abound, there are significant challenges as well. Infrastructure in the region is scant outside of Russia, and even Moscow’s capabilities do not currently meet the needs for an ice-free Arctic summer. Along these lines, with more traffic, construction, and resource withdrawal comes the potential for accidents, and current Arctic search and rescue capabilities fall well short of future needs.
Whenever we think about the Arctic, we must also keep the four million people who live there, especially indigenous groups, in the front of our minds.
“Melting glaciers leave those living in the Arctic increasingly vulnerable to rising sea levels. The warming Arctic also leads to loss of sea ice — formed from seawater, rather than fresh water — which means added difficulties for Arctic inhabitants that rely on traditional livelihoods and food sources. As global interest in the Arctic brings new political, economic, and cultural changes within the Arctic Circle, there will be further changes and challenges to these populations’ way of life.”
Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Tensions have been rising in the region for almost a decade. As I wrote in the Washington Post a few years ago: “The new Arctic — and its potential — has spurred interest in the region from longtime and new players alike. To date, there has been significant cooperation on all sides through the consensus-based approach of the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that has been leading this effort since 1996,” and consists of Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States.
But, “consensus” isn’t really the watchword of High North geopolitics these days. “Following the end of the Cold War, the United States withdrew much of its Arctic forces and capabilities, while Russia neglected much of its infrastructure.” Russian military expansion, which includes “new Arctic airfields, deep-water ports and a fleet of icebreakers, in addition to a new Arctic command,” has the United States and its Western allies worried. And they should be, to a great extent. Russian capabilities in the region in many regards outmatch those of America and its allies. Russia has an estimated 40 all-important ice breakers, for instance. The United States has two (you read that correctly).
From Russia’s perspective, this makes sense, as “Russia’s Arctic territory — an estimated 30 percent of the country’s land — is more heavily urbanized than other parts of the Arctic, and contributes a significant portion of the country’s GDP.” In the United States, with images of the “logo map” in our minds that leave Alaska off to the fringes, many people forget that we’re an Arctic country in the first place. But, with huge amounts of untapped oil, gas, wind, and critical minerals, not to mention its geostrategic proximity to Russia and China, in many ways Alaska holds the keys to America’s future.
While Russia continues the development of its Arctic, a recent Foreign Policy article points out that:
“China’s growing role in the Arctic is of particular concern. Leaders in Beijing have dubbed the country a “near-Arctic state” and are actively seeking to boost its influence over the region’s governance. More worrying, high-level Chinese strategic documents promote the use of dual-use scientific and economic engagement to make inroads for its military to operate in the Arctic.”
The Defense Department even had to step in a few years ago to thwart Chinese attempts to finance the construction of airports in Greenland, fearing they could eventually be used by Beijing for military purposes.
What does all this mean?
The Arctic is going to continue to melt, and the geopolitical competition between Russia and China on the one side, and the United States and its allies on the other, isn’t going away soon. This means you’ll likely be hearing more about this rivalry spilling into the icy(ish) waters of the High North in the coming years. And the Arctic Council, under its current structure, isn’t going to be able to smooth over differences. The Council was mostly suspended after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022. Moreover, that invasion led to NATO’s admission of Sweden and Finland as new members, meaning the Arctic Council is now, for better or worse, a NATO versus Russia body. This split is likely to make Council actions moving forward more fraught.
NATO is also likely to take on an even bigger role in coordinating missions, strategy, and procurement in the region. At the NATO Summit this past summer,
“the leaders of the United States, Canada, and Finland announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, a trilateral deal on polar icebreaker production. The agreement aims to leverage the technological expertise and production capacity of these three Arctic states to build a modern fleet of icebreaking vessels for NATO countries and their global partners.”
We’re likely to see more actions like this in the years to come.
Kelly McFarland is the Director of Programs and Research at Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. He has a PhD in history and experience as an intel analyst at the U.S. Department of State and a Presidential Briefing Book briefer.
Interested in learning more about Arctic security or reading more of Kelly’s work? Check out his Substack Inflection Point or other Diplomatic Pouch articles. Also take a look at ISD’s in-depth case studies library and join the faculty lounge to access free instructor copies:
