Analysis | The Friend of My Enemy Is My…? The Role of the United Arab Emirates in the Russo-Ukrainian War and Implications for Ukraine
“The UAE’s dual role as a partner to Russia and a mediator in the conflict presents challenges and opportunities for Ukraine and the West.”
Mariam Halstian
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United Arab Emirates has maintained relations with both warring states. The UAE has refrained from condemning Russia’s aggression, and the small Gulf state has instead expanded its economic ties with Moscow. At the same time, the Gulf state maintains strong partnerships with the West and is pursuing new economic agreements with Ukraine. The UAE has become a key mediator in prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, growing its influence as a diplomatic intermediary.
A shift in the UAE’s foreign policy stance toward unequivocal support for Ukraine remains unlikely. Therefore, the UAE’s dual role as a partner to Russia and a mediator in the conflict presents challenges and opportunities for Ukraine and the West.
Growing Influence as a Mediator
Since early 2024, the UAE has mediated several high-profile prisoner swaps between Russia and Ukraine. The first of these exchanges took place in January 2024, when the UAE facilitated the release of 230 Ukrainian prisoners in exchange for 248 Russian prisoners. Following this initial success, the UAE facilitated the February 2024 exchange, conducted under a “100-for-100” formula, wherein 100 prisoners from each side were released. In July 2024, the UAE again facilitated an exchange, this time involving 95 prisoners from each side. In August 2024, on Ukraine’s independence day, the UAE facilitated an exchange of 115 prisoners of war from each side. Finally, the UAE brokered the recent September exchange of 206 prisoners from both sides.
The UAE’s involvement in mediating these prisoner exchanges is driven by diplomatic, economic, and strategic motivations. First, by maintaining communication with both Russia and Ukraine, the UAE positions itself as a major player in global diplomacy. Second, the UAE’s economy is deeply intertwined with both Western and Eastern markets. By engaging in mediation efforts, the UAE ensures it remains on good terms with major global powers, including the United States and the European Union, while simultaneously preserving and even deepening its economic ties with Russia. Finally, by leading such high-profile mediation efforts, the UAE expands its soft power, garnering the reputation of a reliable partner. This, in turn, can enhance the UAE’s role in future negotiations, whether related to the Russo-Ukrainian war or other conflicts.
Strengthening Ties with Russia…
In the aftermath of the invasion, the UAE became one of Russia’s key trading partners. In particular, the UAE’s imports of Russian oil products surged from nearly zero before the war to an average of 58,000 barrels per day in 2022, and further rising to 96,000 barrels per day in 2023. Following the invasion, Russia has also become the UAE’s top gold supplier, exporting 96.4 tons of gold in 2022 compared to just 1.3 tons in 2021.
The relationship between Russia and the UAE extends beyond natural resources. The UAE’s varied regulatory structures and complex commercial environment has enabled Russian actors to evade Western sanctions, particularly those targeting technology critical to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Through a network of intermediary companies and trade channels, Russian companies have used the UAE, among China, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, to access technology and components that were otherwise unavailable to Russia due to sanctions. This includes integrated circuits, microchip processors and controllers, radio navigational aids, and other electronics critical for Russia’s defense industry. The UAE’s role as a global logistics hub, with its well-established ports and free trade zones, has made it an ideal location for such operations.
The growing Western pressure on the UAE to enforce sanctions against Russia throughout 2024 may result in a shift in the Gulf state’s foreign policy. In a notable move this past August, the UAE banned Russia’s shadow fleet tankers from entering its ports, indicating a decision to distance itself from Russia’s efforts to evade energy sanctions. The extent and duration of this distancing remain uncertain. However, should the UAE choose to align more closely with the West, Ukraine could benefit not only from increased diplomatic support but also from stricter enforcement of sanctions that would weaken Russia’s war effort.
… While Pursuing New Economic Partnerships with Ukraine
Despite its support for Russia, the UAE has continued cooperation with Ukraine. As of 2021, the UAE was Ukraine’s second-largest trade partner among the Gulf Cooperation Council nations. By September 2020, the UAE’s investments in Ukraine totaled USD 100 million, making it the largest Arab investor in the country. Conversely, Ukrainian foreign direct investment in the UAE reached USD 84 million by early 2021, with investments primarily concentrated in sectors such as real estate, retail trade, manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and technology.
Building on this foundation, the two countries have concluded negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in spring 2024. The CEPA is set to remove or reduce tariffs on a wide range of goods and products, eliminate trade barriers, and enhance market access for exporters from both nations. If adopted, this agreement will not only deepen bilateral economic ties but also support Ukraine’s recovery and the rebuilding of vital industries and infrastructure in the wake of the war. Additionally, the CEPA will help strengthen supply chains to the Middle East and North Africa region, particularly for major Ukrainian exports such as grains, machinery, and metals, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s economic presence in the region.
Implications for Ukraine
The UAE’s dual role in this conflict is a unique case of diplomacy which presents both challenges and opportunities for Ukraine. While the UAE’s deepening ties with Russia raise legitimate concerns, Ukraine can benefit from the Gulf state’s mediation capabilities to influence negotiations and secure more favorable outcomes in prisoner exchanges. Moreover, the UAE’s potential investments across key sectors in Ukraine, such as manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, and real estate offer an important avenue for bolstering Ukraine’s economic recovery. The cost of that recovery — estimated at half a trillion US dollars — will force Ukraine to take whatever help it can get, even from the friends of its mortal enemy.
Mariam Halstian is a graduate student in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, concentrating in intelligence. Previously, Mariam was a Program Officer at IREX, where she worked in Learn to Discern, a project on strengthening Ukrainian society’s resilience against disinformation.
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