Analysis | Why an Old, Grounded Ship Could Start a U.S.-China War
Dr. Kelly McFarland
This article is a piece from Kelly’s Substack newsletter Inflection Point, discussing the geopolitical and transnational challenges facing America and the world today.
The assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife on June 28, 1914 was a fairly innocuous occurrence to spark a major war (unless you were the Archduke and his wife). The murder unleashed what would become, at the time, the bloodiest conflict in human history. There were obviously serious, underlying structural issues in the European security structure that were teetering on the brink in the summer of 1914, but Franz Ferdinand’s death was the spark, or the proximate cause, that pushed an already tense situation to its breaking point.
There are a number of similar issues taking place today in the South China Sea (SCS) that could quickly go from a localized event to a new and potentially catastrophic war. The most discussed likelihood of a potential U.S.-China war begins outside of the South China Sea, with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). Such an action could very well lead to war between Washington and Beijing. While this is a possibility–China’s incorporation of Taiwan is a major policy goal of Chinese President Xi Jinping–there are a number of potential flashpoints in the SCS that could quickly spiral out of control.
Why the South China Sea?
The high-risk issues in the SCS stem from territorial disputes over a number of islands, reefs, and rocks. The problem, as I noted in a previous newsletter, is that China cites control over a vast swath of these waters based on faulty historical claims. China has pushed its infamous nine-dash line map since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) gained control of China in 1949, and even released a new “ten-dash line” last year. For most of the past 75 years, Beijing did not have the military, naval, or economic power to pursue those claims in a serious way, but that has changed.
China stakes its illegal claim over this region for a number of reasons. The first is a geopolitical desire to expand its regional hegemony and reclaim what it views as China’s rightful historical dominance of the area.
The second reason is that the sea is a shipping lifeline, especially for Beijing. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies China Power Project:
“The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that roughly 80 percent of global trade by volume and 70 percent by value is transported by sea. Of that volume, 60 percent of maritime trade passes through Asia, with the South China Sea carrying an estimated one-third of global shipping. Its waters are particularly critical for China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, all of which rely on the Strait of Malacca, which connects the South China Sea and, by extension, the Pacific Ocean with the Indian Ocean. As the second-largest economy in the world with over 60 percent of its trade in value traveling by sea, China’s economic security is closely tied to the South China Sea.”
With this in mind, any military conflagration in the region has the potential to cause major global supply chain disruptions along the lines of Covid-19, or worse.
Lastly, the SCS holds an “estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas,” making it an extremely attractive region for Beijing, which relies on energy imports.
What is China Doing?
According to the Council on Foreign Relations,
“in recent years, satellite imagery has shown China’s increased efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea by physically increasing the islands’ size or creating new ones altogether. In addition to piling sand onto existing reefs, China has constructed ports, military installations, and airstrips — particularly in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, where it has twenty and seven outposts, respectively. China has militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets, cruise missiles, and a radar system.”
On top of this, it has also aggressively worked to block other nations’ rightful claims as well as their attempts to fish in international waters. The Philippines is at the center of this issue. There are multiple potential flashpoints between Manila and Beijing that could spiral out of control and lead to a U.S.-China war, which brings us back to the ship mentioned in the title. As a recent article in War on the Rocks notes:
“Tensions between China and the Philippines have escalated dramatically in recent months around Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the eastern Spratly Islands. The Chinese Coast Guard has repeatedly attempted to block delivery of food, water, and building supplies to the Philippine marine detachment aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II–era warship grounded on the shoal since 1999. In at least two incidents since March, China’s use of coercion has injured Philippines sailors.”
The Philippines grounded the ship as a way to solidify their claim to the shoal, and China has refused to adhere to an international court’s 2016 ruling that the “area lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.”
Chinese aggression toward the Philippines in the SCS goes beyond attempts to stop resupply missions to the Sierra Madre. According to Simon Weiss and Michael Beckley, China has “engaged in military coercion” in the region “at least 132 times from 2012 to 2022 — a frequency roughly four times greater than previously estimated,” with the vast majority of these activities aimed at the Philippines.
“Dozens of Philippine fishing vessels have been sunk, robbed, or turned away from their traditional fishing grounds, thousands of Chinese flagged maritime-militia vessels have illegally operated in waters belonging to the Philippines, and nearly every military mission conducted by the Philippine navy has been met by resistance from Chinese forces.”
Why it Matters for the United States
Beijing’s aggressive actions matter because the United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty, and Washington has noted that the treaty extends “to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft — including those of its Coast Guard — anywhere in the South China Sea.” China and the Philippines signed an agreement in July — the details of which have not been disclosed — that allows for the unimpeded resupply of the Sierra Madre, and a successful resupply mission has taken place thus far. While this bodes well for ongoing clashes over the Sierra Madre, a longer-term deescalation is questionable, as Chinese and Philippine vessels collided on August 19 in the Shabina Shoal, opening a new flashpoint.
Chinese goals for the region have not changed, and even with increased U.S-Philippine military ties—driven in large part due to Chinese aggression over the past decade — it is unlikely that Beijing will permanently curtail its tactics across the board. With this in mind, Washington should continue building up its relationship with Manila to deter Chinese aggression. This might seem counterintuitive due to the relationship’s ineffectiveness to deter thus far. As others have pointed out, though, Vietnam has been able to successfully push back against China in the region without incurring the same levels of aggressiveness from Beijing, in large part due to the fact that Vietnam has the ability to inflict costs on China that the Philippines cannot.
The Philippines’ deterrent stems from the threat of drawing the United States into a conflict with China, but Beijing calibrates its activities so that they do not warrant a U.S. response. Increased U.S. aid that builds up Philippine capabilities in this “gray zone” would allow Manila to better defend itself and push back against Beijing’s aggression without having to use the “break glass in case of an emergency” option of United States intervention.
Kelly McFarland is the Director of Programs and Research at Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. He has a PhD in history and experience as an intel analyst at the U.S. Department of State and a Presidential Briefing Book briefer.
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