Analysis | Progressive Realism: An Outlook on the UK Labour Party’s Foreign Policy
“Starmer advocates a more clear-eyed appraisal of the limits to British power and identifies European security, redressing the neglect of the Global South, and climate diplomacy as Labour’s foreign policy priorities. Starmer’s success in foreign affairs will hinge on his ability to fulfill this vision.”
Jerry Zhang and Katherine Wells
In July 1945, Clement Attlee won a landslide victory and formed the first Labour government in 16 years. At this year’s general election, Sir Keir Starmer — reserved and anti-charismatic like his predecessor Attlee — is poised to repeat the same feat and return his party to power after 14 years in opposition.
Attlee’s six-year premiership is most remembered today for setting up the National Health Service. However, his most lasting legacy is in foreign policy. Navigating through the postwar era’s chaotic geopolitical currents, Attlee helped establish the UN, oversaw the decolonization of India and Mandate Palestine, lobbied for the founding of NATO, and developed Britain’s nuclear deterrent.
With five weeks to go until the July 4 election, The Economist’s election tracker gives Starmer’s Labour party a 93% chance to command a majority in parliament, with the most likely outcome being a comfortable 60-seat majority. Starmer’s strategy of laying low and watching the Conservative party sink on its own seems to be working, at least at this stage in the campaign. After 14 years of Conservative rule, with inflation hitting the public’s finances, a change of government seems all but assured.
In an essay published in May, Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy describes Labour’s approach to international affairs as progressive realism — “the use of realist means to pursue progressive ends.” He advocates a more clear-eyed appraisal of the limits to British power and identifies European security, redressing the neglect of the Global South, and climate diplomacy as Labour’s foreign policy priorities. Starmer’s success in foreign affairs will hinge on his ability to fulfill this vision.
Europe
Under a Labour government, the most significant foreign policy change would be in Britain’s relationship with the European Union. Although Starmer and Lammy have disavowed rejoining the EU, they remain committed to greater reconnection with Europe. The Labour Party has recognized the significance of cooperating with continental partners. Pragmatism, not ideology, drives the party’s belief that collaboration across domains like security and trade promotes shared interests. Lammy has argued for closer UK-EU geopolitical partnership and a security pact “across a wide variety of military, economic, climate, health, cyber, and energy security issues.” With the UK back in the EU-led Horizon Europe program, the UK can also take advantage of its leadership in science and technology. And despite their divergent approaches to AI regulations, there is potential for UK-EU cooperation on information sharing and common standards (for instance, copyrights in AI). Closer economic ties with the EU will help achieve Labour’s ambitious goal of Britain becoming the fastest-growing economy in the G7.
The status of Northern Ireland will remain at the forefront of UK-EU relations. Brokered by the current Conservative government in 2023, the sustainability of the post-Brexit Windsor Framework — which keeps the Irish border open and upholds the Good Friday Agreement — now faces a critical leadership test. The republican Sinn Fein party gained power for the first time in Belfast while Unionists continue to oppose the protocol’s trade arrangements, which they argue would create barriers with the rest of the UK. Starmer appreciates the fragility of peace in Northern Ireland, having worked on the Good Friday Agreement firsthand during his time in Belfast. His statements thus far have highlighted his commitment to upholding the framework and avoiding a hard border. In a speech in Belfast in January 2023, Starmer asserted that pragmatic diplomacy and open communication are imperative to ensure stability prevails. A new government in Westminster has the potential to rise above political expediency and solidify a fragile compromise into a long-lasting reconciliation.
The U.S.-UK Special Relationship
The working relationship between the UK and the United States has become more crucial for post-Brexit foreign policy. The future of the Special Relationship with Washington will very much depend on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. As the prospect of a second Trump administration raises alarms internationally, the UK faces a test of its political convictions. Starmer has recognized its implications but astutely said “I think one of the things about being a leader is you don’t get to choose the other leaders around the world.” Given that Trump is deeply unpopular among Britons of all age groups and party affiliations, it may prove tempting for Labour to wash their hands of partnerships across the Atlantic. Starmer could find himself facing domestic headaches for symbolic gestures and personal diplomacy crucial in gratifying personalities like Trump.
On the other hand, a successful Biden re-election might provide the foundation for a deeper partnership. Starmer has drawn inspiration from the U.S. Democratic president, on his message of compromise and his economic and climate policy. Regardless of the outcome of the US general election, existing security cooperation and trade interdependence rule out taking a step back from Washington. The UK must instead ready itself for principled engagement, not separation.
NATO and Defense Policy
Nevertheless, a Trump victory in 2024 raises anxiety around continued U.S. engagement in NATO and assistance to Ukraine. It almost goes without saying, but safeguarding European self-sufficiency — and by extension, British sovereignty — on defense and security policy represents a fundamental strategic priority amid today’s geopolitical uncertainty. Given Trump’s past record of abandoning international commitments and his threat to leave NATO, urgent calls are mounting for boosted investments in UK military capabilities. The Head of the British Army General Patrick Sanders expressed concerns about further cuts to the UK armed forces. This has sparked debates about the future of British defense policy and whether its current force structure is adequate to protect the country and conduct high-intensity warfare.
Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey has stated that the government must prioritize European and NATO security by meeting UK alliance commitments, halting army cuts, and pursuing defense cooperation with the EU. He recently proposed a “NATO test” to major defense procurements to “ensure the UK’s NATO commitments are fulfilled in full.” Starmer declared in April that Labour will raise defense spending from 2.3 to 2.5 percent of GDP “as soon as resources allow” — two weeks before the Conservative government followed up with a similar commitment.
There is strong bipartisan consensus in Parliament that support for Ukraine is integral to British national security. Having visited Kyiv last year, Starmer has affirmed the UK’s “unwavering” support for Ukraine and recognized Russia as an acute threat to European security. The next Prime Minister will have to continue advocating for further U.S. military aid to Ukraine. And deeper European defense cooperation advocated by Starmer and Lammy, whether through the Franco-British Lancaster Accord or the UK-led Northern European Joint Expeditionary Force, will establish the UK as a stalwart and dependable ally against Russian aggressions.
Middle East
As flaring conflicts in the Middle East have drawn attention to Labour’s perspective on the region. Starmer confirmed his support for Israel’s right to “self defense” after Hamas conducted the October 7 attacks while also affirming his support for a two-state solution so that “every citizen enjoys the security they need.” Starmer backs the UK’s targeting of Houthi sites in Yemen, yet has balanced this out by stating that “alongside vital military moves, the UK should keep following diplomatic paths via the UN and regional talks.” Approaching delicate topics like this will challenge the next Prime Minister as it requires a comprehension of the region’s multifaceted history and mastery of all the tools of statecraft in the PM’s desk at Downing Street. Starmer has already courted criticism that his careful balancing act signals a lack of decisiveness. As Prime Minister, he will need to be ready with well-thought-out explanations in Liaison Committee hearings in Westminster, who will scrutinize his foreign policy.
In his own party, Starmer is likely to face headaches from MPs and activists over his stance on the war in Gaza. Facing criticism from Labour’s activist base, Starmer committed to recognizing a Palestinian state following decisions from the Spanish, Irish, and Norwegian governments to do so. However, he walked a delicate line in refusing to commit to a timeline for recognition, insisting that it must come at the appropriate moment in the peace process. Judging by the size of Starmer’s projected majority, it is unlikely that he will face any real political price for shirking his left flank’s demands on the issue — beyond a few embarrassing speeches by his own MPs.
Indo-Pacific
Followers of British foreign policy will be paying close attention to whether Labour will continue the Indo-Pacific Tilt introduced by Boris Johnson in 2021. Under Starmer, the party shares the less conciliatory parliamentary consensus on China and has called for labeling Beijing’s treatment of Uyghur as genocide, reducing economic and technological dependency, and establishing a dedicated cross-ministry working group on China. A Labour government will continue engagement with regional security partners — particularly Japan and Australia, which respectively collaborate with the UK to develop fighter jets and nuclear submarines.
However, deeper security commitments will be constrained by limited military resources. Senior Labour Party members, like Healy and Lammy, have expressed concerns that involvement in the Indo-Pacific would come at the cost of commitments to Europe. Healy, for instance, has cast doubt on the Conservative government’s deployment of aircraft carriers in the region. Labour will have more prospects of deepening economic ties in the region — whether in the form of trade deals or innovative supply chain agreements. Completing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India, currently in its 3rd year of negotiation, would be a crowning achievement for the next government.
Foreign Aid and Climate
Starmer will have to repair the UK’s tarnished reputation in foreign aid. The Conservative government reneged on its own target to spend 0.7% of GNI on international development. Its merger of the Foreign Office and the Department for International Development in 2020 damaged morale and led to staffing shortages. The UK is falling in international ranking on aid transparency and a growing share of the aid budget is spent at home to house asylum seekers. Lammy has called for a “new model for international development,” but what this means in practice is unclear. Labour already has ruled out immediately reinstating the 0.7% target and rolled back an earlier pledge to restore an independent Department for International Development.
Finally, the Labour government would put tackling global warming at the center of its foreign policy strategy. As required by the Paris Agreement, the next government will have to present new national emission targets by 2025. Labour’s pledge of bold climate actions, such as fully decarbonizing electricity production by 2030, will improve the UK’s green credentials abroad. But tight fiscal constraints have already forced the party to reverse some of its climate promises, including a planned 35 billion USD annual investment in green industries. However, under Starmer, who actively participated in last year’s COP in Dubai, the UK is likely to be more active in climate diplomacy and working with countries vulnerable to climate change.
Ultimately, Labour’s foreign policy will hinge on Starmer’s management of his party. Leadership and grassroots members don’t see eye to eye on many issues and old factional fault lines might re-emerge. While a boon, a decisive majority in Westminster can also incentivize backbenchers to dissent and vote against the government. It is unclear how much of Labour’s foreign policy ideas will survive if it becomes the governing party. What is certain is that the next Prime Minister will have to steer Britain through a challenging time in an unstable global order.
Jerry Zhang is a recent graduate from Georgetown University’s Master of Science in Foreign Service program. He is interested in the intersection of tech policy and energy transition.
Katherine Wells is a recent graduate from Georgetown University’s Security Studies program. Raised in the UK with an integrated Master’s in Arabic and Islamic Studies from the University of Exeter, she focuses on Middle Eastern Affairs as well as U.S.-UK relations.
Interested in learning more about UK politics and foreign policy? Check out ISD’s in-depth case studies library and join the faculty lounge to access free instructor copies:
