The Significance of Climate Diplomacy During President Ruto’s State Visit to the United States
“Climate diplomacy can allow the United States to shape the future with rather than for emerging economies. Yet, it can only do so by looking through its partner’s lens.”
Arjan Van Tongerlo
Last week, Kenyan President William Ruto became the first African state leader to visit the White House in sixteen years. The visit is the latest step in President Biden’s commitment to deepen engagement with the African continent. Both the United States and China view Africa’s emerging economies, with their abundant natural resources, as important partners in the race to secure green energy supply chains — and with them, global economic leadership. As one of Africa’s fastest-developing economies, Kenya is poised to become an important actor in various high-technology industries. The state visit therefore marked an important milestone in U.S.-Africa relations. President Biden’s pledge to designate Kenya as a “major non-NATO ally” caught headlines. Yet, the visit’s true value may lie in less publicized commitments to deepen the climate partnership between the two countries. It is through such often-neglected climate diplomacy the United States can set itself apart as a valuable partner for African countries.
The Growing Importance of Kenya
Deepening ties with Kenya can be an important litmus test for the United States. Kenya has Africa’s seventh-largest economy. It is an East African financial and business hub, receiving 80 percent of the region’s trade and has averaged an annual 4.8 percent GDP growth rate since 2010. Politically, it represents the position of many African countries by not picking sides in today’s great power competition. This position is exemplified by the mix of Kenya’s largest trade partners, consisting of China, the European Union, India, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. President Ruto is no stranger to Western capitals and did not hold back in condemning Russia’s actions to disrupt grain trade going into Africa. Nor is he afraid to side with China or Russia when it suits Kenyan interests, such as speaking out against Western dominance in global financial institutions.
At the same time, Kenya is becoming an African climate leader under President Ruto. Kenya generates 90 percent of its energy from renewables, largely from geothermal and hydroelectric sources. During his inauguration in September 2022, President Ruto promised to achieve 100 percent clean energy production by 2030. This commitment is part of Kenya’s quest to achieve sustainable economic growth. President Ruto recognizes that climate change poses a significant threat to growing the country’s economy. A third of the country’s GDP still relies on climate-vulnerable agriculture. The World Bank estimates Kenya could lose up to 7.25 percent of its GDP due to climate change by 2050. Reducing emissions and making its economy resilient to climate shocks is paramount for Kenya to protect its economic growth.
President Ruto knows Kenya cannot achieve its climate objectives alone. He champions an African continent at the forefront of addressing climate change through the continent’s vast renewable energy potential. As part of this effort, Kenya hosted the inaugural African Climate Summit in September 2023, at which President Ruto remarked “We must see in green growth not just a climate imperative, but also a fountain of multi-billion-dollar economic opportunities that Africa and the World is primed to capitalize on.’’ Kenya’s leadership role in promoting such a vision for Africa is what makes the country an emerging regional leader. Yet, President Ruto is aware that the continent is fighting an uphill battle.
A Pattern of Neglect
The international support to meet African climate agendas is insufficient. Countries disproportionately impacted by climate change often lack the means to mitigate or adapt to its effects. Kenya accounts for less than 0.1 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions yet ranks among the top 30 countries most vulnerable to climate change. Reducing these vulnerabilities will cost Kenya approximately $62 billion by 2030. This is a sum Kenya cannot meet by itself. In December 2020, Kenya recognized that 87 percent of the required budget must come from international support. This financial picture only worsened as Kenya’s government debt grew 50 percent between 2021 and 2023.
International support, however, remains elusive. World Bank estimates show Kenya’s annual climate financing gap is $5.13 billion. Specifically, Kenya’s ability to deal with existing global warming funding is scarce. Kenya’s climate plans require almost $44 billion for climate adaptation by 2030. Yet, only 11.7 percent of Kenya’s domestic and international climate finance is allocated to such projects. According to the latest climate statistics, this amounts to $280 million annually. For the period between 2020 and 2030, the adaptation finance gap would be over $41 billion.
Deepening U.S.-Kenya Ties
President Ruto’s state visit to Washington was a positive step in deepening U.S.-Kenyan ties. For the United States, the visit reaffirmed Kenya’s intention to deliver on its promise to stabilize Haiti with a UN-sanctioned police force. For Kenya, however, climate commitments were a greater source of value. The visit underscored that climate change is not only a challenge but an economic opportunity for Africa. Most notably, two initiatives set forth during the visit could position the United States as a valuable partner to help Kenya, and the wider African continent, address its climate challenges.
The U.S.-Kenya Climate and Clean Energy Industrial Partnership aims to assist Kenya in achieving its green energy goals. According to the White House press release, the Partnership intends to support clean energy deployment, clean energy supply chains, and green industrialization. This would allow Kenya to become a green-powered hub at the forefront of Africa’s emerging technology markets and make it an attractive destination for countries to diversify their supply chains. To achieve this, the United States promised to invest in various Kenyan green energy startups. The two countries further committed to identifying financial and risk mitigation tools — a strategy that could make Kenya more attractive for private investment.
The Nairobi-Washington Vision similarly seeks to help countries such as Kenya unlock funds to finance their climate goals. The Vision recognizes that rising debt limits the ability of Kenya to finance its economic growth and green development. It therefore calls on the international community to support ‘high ambition’ countries with support packages and debt relief options. Simply put, the Vision seeks to reduce the amount countries have to spend on paying off their debts so these countries can fund their own development projects.
The Value of Climate Diplomacy
The outcome of the state visit can become an example of how the United States can use climate-based engagement to deepen its diplomatic ties with African countries. Geopolitical engagement within Africa too often focuses on meeting the needs of those outside the continent. Countries like the United States and China have invested significantly in African infrastructure and mining. When it comes to helping African countries address their climate concerns, however, funding remains elusive. Unless climate financing increases, there will be a $453 billion financing gap across Africa by 2030 for climate adaptation alone. The United States therefore has an opportunity to step up its engagement in areas that benefit countries such as Kenya.
Climate diplomacy should start by recognizing the needs of the partner country. Like most African countries, Kenya already contends with climate change’s impact. A focus on preventing further temperature increases is not enough. Ensuring Kenya’s economic development requires increasing the resilience of its climate-sensitive industries. It also requires unlocking the financial means to deal with inevitable climate-related losses. Understanding the needs of Kenya, or any other African country, is the foundation of identifying partnership opportunities.
The outcome of President Ruto’s state visit seems to align both countries’ foreign policy goals through climate-based engagement. The visit addressed Kenya’s quest for international financing for its climate objectives. It also allowed the United States to establish new avenues to diversify its supply chains by helping Kenya develop its economy. This approach will allow for a true mutually beneficial partnership that allows for mutual gains without increasing Kenya’s debt or extracting profits — as still happens all too often in engagement with Africa.
If successful, the initiatives produced by the state visit can become a model for climate diplomacy within Africa. Kenya’s increasing role as a climate leader in Africa makes positive U.S.-Kenyan relations essential if the United States is to build similar mutually beneficial partnerships within the continent. President Ruto’s state visit was a step in the right direction. Climate diplomacy can allow the United States to shape the future with rather than for emerging economies. Yet, it can only do so by looking through its partner’s lens.
Arjan van Tongerlo recently served as a Bunker Fellow at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, where he researched climate diplomacy vis-à-vis non-aligned states. He holds an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown University.
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