How to hold on to first in your fantasy league

As Memorial Day lies ahead, we’ve reached the turning point of fantasy baseball season. Earlier in the season, I laid out a month-by-month strategy and approach. It’s time to take action! Where you are in the standings will dictate what those actions are, but this is where you make or break your season. To help, I will release three pieces to lay out what those moves are. You’re either in the money (near the top of the standings and in a playoff spot), stuck in the middle (self explanatory), or bottom feeding (“Oh $#!+” mode).

We’ll start with those in the money. This might be the hardest position from which to take action. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Doing so goes against the way we tend to be conditioned to manage situations like this. If you’re sitting in first and you’re running away with it, this is probably valid. But if you’re not….. The work ahead of you is much simpler and much smaller in scope. Maybe even a tad nitpicky. But here’s how I try to fortify a winning lineup.

Find the chinks in the armor.

Adolis Garcia has been a free agency gem, but can he sustain with a 27 percent K rate?

In standard roto, this is a bit more prevalent and easy to identify, as the standings are based on your categorical score. In points leagues, it’s a little less pressing.

Is there a category you’re dominating? One that you’re buried in? This is the time to try and find balance. Hedge your bet if you will. Maybe it’s time to sacrifice some of your 18 homerun lead to address the steals you’re struggling to rack up. Don’t go crazy with it, after all, you’re winning. But if I can move my third or fourth best power hitter for a player who will lead my team in steals, or convert the high K-rate pitcher into one who will lower my ERA, those are the deals I am hunting here. The season is long, injuries happen. It’s best to hedge your bet by addressing a weakness.

If points, don’t over index on your win-loss record and take a look at the points totals in the standings and see where you really stand. Does your points total match your position in the standings, or are you catching some good matchup luck? Put ego to the side and be honest with yourself here. If not, take a look at one of the later pieces this week and consider your team a “stuck in the middle” or “bottom feeding” squad.

For the sake of the example, let’s assume your points validate your team as a contender. Well done! Now, you’re just crossing T’s and dotting I’s. I lean here to be more conservative and not rocking the boat too much. I mean, points are points. It really doesn’t matter who’s carrying you. I’m looking to accumulate depth though. Would I still be winning each week if I lost one of my pitchers? Do I have a hole at shortstop, but entirely too many outfielders to play regularly?

Your weaknesses are probably minimal, but they are weaknesses and I would try and address them in the middle of the roster players or even some buy-low trades.

Look for buy low trades

If you’ve got the ability to carry a struggling star on your bench until they find their way, do it.

Managing these transactions is more an art than anything else. You not only need to identify which players are tagged for positive regression, but you need to then convince whoever’s team they’re on to give them to you. The latter could be its own article, but here’s what I look for to identify the gap between surface stats (homeruns, batting average, etc) and true performance. Fangraphs is my go-to for this information, but baseball savant and baseball reference are great as well.

Tommy Pham is hitting the ball much better than you’d think

For hitters:

1. Is their BABIP abnormal compared to their career norm? Abnormally low means they may be catching bad luck. League average is a hair over .300, but I compare it to the individual player’s baseline. Some hitters consistently hit in the .330 range. It’s safe to say a guy with a .220 BABIP is abnormally low and assuming most of these other stats are fine, is all but guaranteed to bounce back.
2. Is there a change in their rate of hard contact? BABIP isn’t ALWAYS luck. But, If they’re making their normal amount of hard contact, and their BABIP is way down, it’s probably a fluke and their stats will normalize. The norm these days is a rate in the high 30’s. A guy in the 40 percent neighborhood is abusing the ball and will be fine. A guy with a rate in the 20’s or lower is really struggling. Maybe they lost bat speed, maybe they’re playing through an injury. Whatever the cause, a decrease in hard contact is bad and scares me off.
3. Are their homerun to flyball rates and groundball to flyball rates normal? If a player makes a lot of hard contact, is still hitting a lot of flyballs, but has a low homerun to flyball rate, that will likely normalize with time. For context here, high average hitters tend to lean slightly to groundball oriented groundball to flyball rates (over 1.00) and power hitters tend to lean to flyballs (under 1.00) and homerun rates for guys with solid pop are in the mid to high teens (15–18 percent), where the elite power hitters can live at 30-plus percent.
4. Has he changed his approach? Is his chase rate up or down? Is he walking more? Is his swing rate different? Is he racking up or has he cut down on swinging strikes? If approach is the problem, it can be fixed. Maybe he’s pressing and chasing pitches out of the zone more than usual. Maybe he’s taking too many pitches and being SO selective, he’s becoming a passive hitter. I always compare to individual baselines for these more than league norms. Only thing that scares me off is to see a player with the same discipline, but a noticeable change in swinging strike rate. This is typically symptomatic of lost bat speed. That tends to come with age and is an indication of legitimate decline in skill set.

Eduardo Rodriguez has far outpitched his 5.06 ERA

For pitchers:

1. Does their ERA match their xERA, FIP and xFIP? Different people prefer different metrics, but the concept is the same. If their ERA is higher than any of these numbers, they are pitching better than they appear. If their ERA is lower, they are benefiting from some good luck.
2. Is their velocity down? You can look across the board, but I usually focus more on fastball velocity. It’s important to note this matters less for guys who make a living with their offspeed, but most appealing fantasy pitchers rack up strikeouts and oftentimes, they have overpowering fastballs. One way or the other, a notable decline in velocity is very concerning as it can be a sign of injury or true skill set regression.
3. Similar to hitters, check for signs of bad luck. Is their BABIP abnormal compared to their baseline? Is their homerun to flyball rate abnormally high? Is their strand rate low? These are all things that are out of a pitcher’s control to some extent. It’s an imperfect science. For example, if a pitcher gives up a lot of hard contact, it stands to reason the BABIP against him will be higher. Harder hit balls net more hits than soft ones. That’s not always the fault of his defense. But, a pitcher’s defense can really leave him hanging if they have a high BABIP and a lot of soft contact. For reference, look at Luis Castillo of the Reds in April. Talk about being left out to dry. Inversely, look at Luis Castillo in May. No defense is helping stop that much hard contact.
4. Look at their pitch mix and pitch grades. Are they experimenting with a new pitch? Are they being forced to rely on their secondary stuff? A change to a pitching repertoire can fuel monumental breakouts for veteran pitchers. On the other hand, it can be a way to diagnose problems. For example, Patrick Corbin lives off his slider. He hasn’t thrown it less than 37 percent of the time since 2018. Sliders are hard to throw in colder weather. They don’t break the same. Corbin struggled to throw his for strikes in April. As a result, he was falling behind in counts and was forced to throw more fastballs. What does Corbin lack? A major league level fastball. Since 2018, he hasn’t thrown it more than 20 percent of the time. Through April, he was sitting at a 29 percent rate for fastballs. What do we think happened to him? An 11.25 ERA. Since the weather warmed and he is throwing sliders for strikes again? A 3.82 ERA. Not elite, as Corbin himself is not. But a great buy low target

Accumulate Depth

Trey Mancini is probably not your top option at his positions, but a useful tool nonetheless

I’ll keep this one short. Don’t think to yourself “I have Max Muncy who looks like a dark horse MVP, he plays practically every infield position, I’m good”. An injury to Muncy can derail you. Always look to upgrade and have a strong bench. You’re preparing for the long haul now and need to make sure you have good emergency options in place. I’m not necessarily making notable changes to the core of my roster. Obviously it’s working for you. But I don’t care who you have on your roster, there is opportunity to improve, especially the guys at the bottom of the bench.

Play smart, play aggressively. This is not the place to become complacent. Keep your foot on the gas and drive to victory