Three Fantasy Baseball Players to Add for Week 4
What a week! Another great series between the Dodgers and Padres, a no-hitter that will be lost in the record books and another wave of players owned in fewer than 75% of fantasy leagues (according to Yahoo) that are contributing in a major way! I love baseball!
At this point in the season, the standings in your league are starting to mean something. We are getting past the “bad start” or “good start” for your team and crossing into the “strengths” and “weaknesses” analysis of your roster. Personally, this is around the time I start talking trades with my league mates. If you are considering a two-for-one or three-for-two trade, you will be left with an open roster spot that needs filling, or if you find yourself unable to work a trade, this is a solid way to grab talented players for a much lower cost.
Here are three players that I am all over this week, owned in fewer than 75 percent of leagues.
Adolis Garcia- OF- Texas Rangers
What power! Four homeruns in seven days! I guess that explains why the Rangers have penciled him into the middle of the lineup. Always projected to have power at the major league level, it looks like Garcia is seeing beach balls out there.
The knocks on Garcia that have held him out of the majors in the past is that he lacks the true MLB hit tool. And despite the power binge he’s been on, he is still batting just .265 on the young season. He doesn’t really take walks and while he’s cut down on the strikeouts overall, he is still being sat down on strikes at a 29.4 percent rate.
There’s no denying the power though and there are no real threats in Texas to push him down the lineup. Not for nothing, his speed ratings were high as a prospect and he has regularly chipped in double digit steals at all levels of the minors. Keep your eyes peeled for that side of his game to materialize. I say scoop him up now and start him until he cools off.
To clarify, I don’t see this as a long-term commitment. Add him today but don’t question if he is worth holding later when the next flavor of the week comes along. But any guy who has potential for 20-plus homeruns and 10 to 15 steals is on my radar. Especially when they get hot.
Yuli Gurriel- 1B, 3B- Houston Astros
Gurriel is an interesting case for me. At first, he seemed to be a hot hand just to ride out for a week or two. After all, he’s not new. He’s 36 years old, plays on a team with a recent world series win, a lot of off the field controversy and primetime TV appearances. Said another way, we know who Gurriel is and this week of 3 homeruns and 10 RBI is clearly just a hot streak. Right?
Not so fast. After looking deeper, I think there may actually be something here. Gurriel’s walk rate is far and away higher than ever at 17.6 percent, compared to a career 5.2 percent rate. His chase rate is down 7 percent from his career norm. But he hasn’t sacrificed contact, or more specifically, he’s not giving back his contact rate on pitches in the zone. In other words, he is being far, far more selective at the plate without becoming too passive on strikes.
Furthermore, his hard contact, barrel and homerun-flyball rates are all at career highs. Combining that with a better approach at the dish and I buy into his gains being sustainable and very much real.
It’s hard for a 36 year old hitter to change his approach, exhibit patience and stick with it for 162 games. Old habits die hard, you know? But, I am cautiously optimistic and adding him this week.
Alex Wood- SP- San Francisco Giants
Another fantasy season, another erroneously low ownership rate for Alex Wood. It’s well deserved. Wood is no Iron-Man. That’s for sure. But, he is a high ceiling option on a per start basis when he’s healthy. And right now, he sure does look healthy.
He’s striking guys out with fury, a 27.5 percent rate and walking practically nobody, as shown by his 2.5 percent walk rate. He has allowed one barrel this year across his 12 innings pitched and has a groundball-flyball rate of 3.40. Impressive.
Now, Wood has been very lucky in a number of ways. First and maybe most importantly, both of his starts have come against the Marlins. The 2020 magic seems to have rubbed off of the fish and they can make any pitcher look like Jacob deGrom these days. He’s also had really good fortune on balls in play, which is odd because the Giants aren’t a great defensive team. But their infield is solid and with that many groundballs, it has helped. Wood has always been pretty good at avoiding hard contact, so having a BABIP of .111, while unsustainable, isn’t a total fluke either. A bunch of average or softly hit groundballs will usually lead to a lot of easy outs. He’s also sporting a 100 percent strand rate, which is certain to normalize in time. Wood has only allowed 4 hits this year. One of them was a homerun. None of the other runners have scored. This is clearly unsustainable.
Make no mistake about it though. Wood has been a quality option in fantasy before. He finally looks healthy again and looks like he may be back. He’s destined to see regression to the norm at some point, but he hasn’t been all luck either. He’s just working with the lethal combination of pitching incredibly well and also catching every break he can. He won’t keep catching all of those breaks. But, I have no reason to think he won’t continue pitching incredibly well.
He is a no regrets add for me this week with a home start against the Rockies. Any good pitcher against the Rockies away from Coors field right now is something to consider.
