Eagles Fantasy Football Outlook: Alshon Jeffery
What is the Fantasy Football value of Alshon Jeffery in 2018? During the 2017 season, the Philadelphia Eagles brought in the prize Wide Receiver Free Agent Alshon Jeffery. Since signing 1-year “prove it” deal with Philadelphia, both sides have agreed that this relationship should continue long term and eventually agreed on a 4-year $52 million dollar deal. Alshon currently has the 12th highest Wide Receiver contract, but also one of the lowest guaranteed percentages.
Brooks 2018 Fantasy Football Projection for Alshon Jeffery:66 catches — 1050 yards — 10 TD = 198 Points (half-point PPR)
**198 Half-Point PPR points would rank him as the #13 overall Fantasy Football Wide Receiver on Pro Football Focus and the #9 overall Fantasy Football Wide Receiver on Fantasy Pros.
To put these numbers in context, if Jeffery catches 66 passes this year it will be his 3rd highest of his career 89 (2013) and 85 (2014). Hauling in 66 passes isn’t unreasonable though, it would only be a mere +9 catches over his last season total of 57 catches.
The chemistry between Eagles Quarterback Carson Wentz and Alshon grew over the season and I expect it to pick up right where the left off. To be honest I think Jeffery is capable of catch numbers closer to his career highs, but on this Eagles offense, there are too many options for one player to have 80+ catches.
My projection of 1,050 receiving yards would also be the 3rd highest of his career. Alshon reigned in 1,421 (2013) and 1,133 (2014). It’s no stretch for Alshon to reach the 1,000 yard mark, he has the size and skill to easily reach these types of numbers.
While he only hauled in 789 yards last season, Jeffery had 6 games with less than 40 yards receiving. This includes 4 games in the first half of the season where chemistry was being built and the final 2 games of the season where the Eagles didn’t play their starters much. In fact, between the last two games of the season Alshon was only targeted 4 times for a total of 8 yards.
Jeffery was targeted on average 7.5 times a game. 4.5 targets per game in his lowest 6 games mentioned above and 9.5 targets per game in the remaining 10 games. I expect his numbers to be closer to the 9+ targets per game this season.
The biggest change I predict for Jeffery this season, is his return to double digit touchdowns. If he can indeed pull down 10 TDs this season, that would tie his career high for TDs in a season which he accomplished in 2014.
Expecting Alshon to tie his career high isn’t a stretch, this would only be a +1 increase for his 2017 season of 9 touchdown catches. A season in which he was brand new to a team and also had a QB change late in the season. His biggest detractor to reaching that number is the rest of the Eagles playmakers.
An offense that boasts guys like Tight End Zach Ertz, Wide Receiver Nelson Agholor, Running Backs Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement and now new additions like rookie Tight End Philly Goedert will all be competing for offensive production. The chemistry and trust that Alshon and Wentz have will be the difference this season.
