The Curious Case of Nelson Agholor
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor has had a pretty interesting start to his career. He’s gone from well-received first round pick, to exciting rookie to an absolute disaster in year two, to a big reason why the Eagles were able to win their first Super Bowl.
I think most fans have fallen back in love with Agholor and that is going to make the eventual trade or free agency very difficult for some. The Eagles picked up Agholor’s team option for 2019 at $9.3 mil. The Eagles will also be up against the salary cap in 2019 and pretty much every year for the next decade. They’ll most likely have to release(or re-work) the contracts of Nick Foles, Chris Long and Michael Bennett just to get under the cap after this season.
Before we get into the salary cap issues with keeping Agholor long-term, I think it’s important to understand what his value will be down the road.
In my opinion, Agholor is going to be the Eagles’ 4th best receiver by the year 2020. Alshon Jeffrey is and will continue to be the Eagles top wide out, Zach Ertz is an elite tight end and Dallas Goedert might be even better than Ertz in a year or two.
Go back and look at the workout numbers between Ertz and Goedert and then watch their college tapes. Goedert is so much more advanced than Ertz was coming out of Stanford.
Goedert looks like an Ertz clone, but with better hands and feet. I know he’s just a rookie who hasn’t played even a preseason game in the NFL yet, but this article is about projections and I’m projecting that Nelson Agholor will not be one of the Eagles top 3 receivers in 2020, maybe not even in 2019.
Mack Hollins is another receiver to keep an eye on. I don’t see him being a more valuable receiver than Agholor, but he’s got #2 wide receiver potential. In the last two years the Eagles have signed(and re-signed) Alshon Jeffrey and Mike Wallace along with drafting Mack Hollins and Shelton Gibson. What do those wide outs all have in common? They’re pure outside threats. Jeffrey does it with size and athleticism, while the other three are pure speed receivers.
It seems the Eagles want outside speed from their wide outs and smooth route running and quickness from their tight ends. So where does that leave Nelson Agholor?
I should also mention Greg Ward as another threat to Agholor’s future in Philly. He’s a pure slot receiver with a ton of quickness. He played both quarterback and wide receiver in college, so the addition of more ‘Philly Specials’ is in play if he makes the roster. He was close last year, but I love his chances even more this year after spending a full season on the practice squad. If he impresses, he could be viewed as a much cheaper replacement for Agholor in 2020, or maybe even in 2019 if Agholor has some trade value.
Okay now back to the salary cap, which is really the determining factor to Nelson Agholor’s future here. The Eagles are set to be $30 million over the cap heading into the 2019 season. If they release Nick Foles, Michael Bennett and Chris Long(who probably will just retire), then they get right at the cap limit. They would still have Jordan Hicks, Brandon Graham and Ronald Darby and Jay Ajayi to hit free agency without any money left to sign them or spend on other free agents.
Even if the Eagles look at other players to create space and do wish to extend Agholor, you’ll still have a huge payday coming Carson Wentz’s way very soon. Howie Roseman isn’t a whiz with the salary cap because he magically adds money to their cap space, he’s viewed that way because he doesn’t give out bad contracts and he understands player value.
This is why I believe Nelson Agholor, despite rising from bust to borderline Pro Bowl wide out, will have 1–2 years left on the Eagles roster. That $9.3 mil cap hit in 2019 is going to be tough to hold on to, and a long-term deal that exceeds that amount is going to be even harder.
