Gerard Lyons: Robots can boost productivity and creativity for the poor

This story first appeared in Times Red BOx: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gerard-lyons-robots-can-boost-productivity-and-creativity-for-the-poor-8b6z7cd3p

The march of the robots and the relentless advance of artificial intelligence summon up two conflicting visions of the future.

In the dystopian view of the world to come, workers at every level, from the office to the shop floor are surplus to requirements, to be replaced by cheaper, more efficient machines. In the alternative world of sunlit uplands, we will enjoy the next phase of the fourth industrial revolution, with monotonous, routine jobs giving way to more creative, productive and better paid forms of employment.

Which one is right? The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), which specialises in finding ways of improving the lot of the poorest and least advantaged, is setting out to find the answer.

Previous research by the CSJ has shown clearly that work is the best route out of poverty. Thus, having a clear idea about the future of work is essential to help formulate policy to help those most in need in our society. It also will be vital, too, to help understand how to position the UK economy to succeed in the future. We need to ensure we grow the economic cake as well as ensuring everyone gets a chance to have a decent slice of it.

As the economic advisor to this new report, I have a positive view about where we are likely to end up.

Fears of massive job losses at all levels of the workforce, because of the rise of the robot and artificial intelligence are misplaced. There will be enough jobs. This is not because we have a crystal ball to see into the future, but based on what we know from the past and from how economies adapt.

We are not the first generation to fear the absence of jobs. The industrialisation of the 18th and 19th centuries saw phenomenal change, with people lured from the land to the city. New technology tends to be continuous, complex, competitive and creative. Although the competitive threat from new technology could wipe out jobs, one lesson from the past is that technological advance often led to jobs changing and to the creation of new roles. Trouble is, it is not always possible to say in advance what these new roles will be.

And if we are to reap the benefits of this new landscape, there are problems to address, such as the imbalanced nature of the UK economy.

This is seen in many ways, especially regional divides. This is not just about London versus the rest, as there are variations across many regions and within regions too. But place matters, with future prospects heavily influenced by where someone is born, grows up, by the quality of their local schools and by where they work. To prepare for the work of the future, we must ensure opportunities exist across the country.

While improving education is key to this, so is the kind of education we provide. The evidence increasingly suggests it is more about equipping people with skills than with just knowledge. A more technical economy will demand more technical skills.

But it is not only about enabling people with better skills — to be prepared for the future of work we also need to enable the jobs that are needed to be created here as well. The pace and scale of change suggests entrepreneurial activity will be in high demand. Thus there will need to be big changes in economic policy, creating the conditions in which new businesses can thrive and grow.

The further question then is will we be paid enough? Wage growth has been sluggish since the financial crisis, influenced by many factors. In the future, globalisation and technology will figure prominently. Profitable firms will be able to pay. But what about those people who have low paid but crucial jobs that robots can’t do?

The minimum wage was successful in ending exploitative pay, but what has got us this far may not be enough for the future. We may need to address such variables as welfare levels, regional pay — varying across the country, just as it does across the world. Workers’ rights will also need to be safeguarded and made fit for a technology age.

For all the threats and challenges posed by the coming upheaval in the world economy, we have a wonderful opportunity to boost productivity and creativity and so generate a quantum leap in living standards. But to do that we need to be aware of how the future of work is about to change, and prepare for this in advance.

Dr Gerard Lyons is senior economic advisor on the new future of work project at the Centre for Social Justice