There is much ado in the Israeli Labor Party
Herzog seeks to preserve his dream by suspending the leadership election and crafting a unity government with Netanyahu
As the Knesset has settled down after a week of tomfoolery and hijinks on the state budget, as well as the gas deal, the talk of the town has passed on to the next controversy: the unending chaos within the state’s founding Labor party. Once the behemoth of Israeli politics — time and change, demographics and failure — Labor shifted into seemingly eternal exile from ruling the land. The last time Labor held the premiership was before the September 11th attacks on the World Trade Center in New York; the last Kibbutznik to hold it was, the now-disgraced Ehud Barak.
Since Barak’s defeat in early 2001, Labor has returned to a governing coalition twice, but has never led it. Amir Peretz’s Labor joined as a supporting partner to Ehud Olmert’s Kadima government, while Ehud Barak, at the helm once again, dragged Labor kicking and screaming into Netanyahu’s second government in 2009. And now four years after Labor split and darted out from under Netanyahu, it appears another Labor leader may be on the verge of joining Netanyahu once again.
Opposition Leader Isaac ‘Buji’ Herzog may be on the cusp of an agreement to bring the newly formed Zionist Union into the government — this time from a position of considerable strength. Why would he consider doing this? Given his rhetoric ever since the election, his party’s mandate to be an alternative, not an addition, to a Netanyahu government, and his own bitter memories of Ehud Barak’s nightmarish reign over the party: that is a good question.
For the answer we must look at the political motivations of Buji himself. Ever since being elected Labor head in late 2013, he has been stern on one thing: that he will be the next Prime Minister. When the snap election was called last December, Herzog kicked into action in absorbing Tzipi Livni’s flailing Hatnuah party and crafting the new center-left alternative to the Likud and Netanyahu.
Herzog and Livni’s Zionist Union held steady over the campaign, sometimes pulling ahead, although often times stalemated with Likud in the polls or behind. As the election approached, support for Netanyahu started to sag. The final polls, the week before the election showcased the Zionist Union ahead from 3 all the way to 5 Knesset seats ahead of the Prime Minister. In a leap of politically calculated faith, Bibi went into full panic mode scaring the settlers of Judea and Samaria from their first preferences back to the Likud in order to save Israel from the “Leftists” or the “droves of Arabs”.
And this is how the state of affairs of today came into being. Herzog was so close to becoming Prime Minister, yet so far. As opposition leader he has found himself outflanked by Lapid on one hand, and political opposition within his own party on the other. A Labor Party leadership primary is obligated to take place by May 2016 according to the party’s constitution — Herzog knows that if it does take place, it will be the end of his dream.
Ending the reign of terror
The Labor Party has the same relationship with their leaders as the French did during the reign of terror of their revolution back in the 1790s. Has he failed? Yes. Off with his head! This party has elected and disposed of a new leader every election since 2001. Some were necessary, like ridding themselves of Amram Mitzna, Amir Peretz after the Second Lebanon war, or Shelly Yachomivich taking over for Ehud Barak after the party’s fracture. Others have just proven to be the wrath of an angry and politically hungry establishment.
The case for disposing of Herzog is more complicated. Yes, he technically did not return the party to power. However, he didn’t underperform. Netanyahu over performed. He is the first Labor leader since Ehud Barak in 1999 to bring the party over 20 Knesset seats and during the previous campaign elevated Labor to a level of respect it hadn’t seen in ages.
One can say what he will about Herzog’s lack of charisma, nerdy exterior, or other perceived shortcomings — but one cannot doubt the man’s ambition, strength of character, and decency. Herzog believes he deserves a second chance and that’s why he is aiming to join the government.
The plan is quite simple; Herzog is allying with Avi Nissenkorn, head of the Histadrut, Israel’s flagship labor union, to postpone the Labor party’s leadership election to the end of 2017. In exchange, Herzog will help Nissenkorn with his reelection earlier that year as head of Histadrut.
Herzog believes if he can delay the leadership election to the end of 2017, there will likely be another election by then and the party will unite behind him in that case. On top of that Herzog is betting that creating internal stability within the Labor party will create a better impression of it as a party ready to rule, instead of the sick man of the Israeli political system as it is seen today.
Herzog also wants to be seen as a real, credible, security oriented leader to try to claim the premiership for himself. Herzog sees the rowdiness of the opposition, and a party with few holding ministerial experience, as another pothole in the way of success in the public eye. He sees joining the government as the best way to do this.
A marriage of convenience
Over the past few months, rumors have circulated about talks on developing a unity government between Likud and the Zionist Union, this would bring the government away from the brink of falling apart and guarantee Netanyahu a longer term. According to a framework agreement signed by the two leaders earlier this year, Netanyahu has agreed to give the Justice, Foreign, and Defense ministries over to the Zionist Union. While it appears Herzog has dropped his demand for a rotation of the premiership.
Under the agreement as leaked, Herzog would become Defense Minister, Livni, Foreign Minister, while Shelly Yachimovich, Herzog’s ever opportunistic rival, would become Justice Minister to keep her content. The agreement which would also obligate the government to return to the negotiating table with the Palestinian Authority, a deal good enough for Herzog to save face.
If this has already been agreed to why has nothing come of it? Two problems: Habayit Hayehudi and the Labor leadership race. First, Netanyahu knows that the inclusion of the Zionist Union and stripping of the Justice Ministry from Ayelet Shaked would likely push Habayit Hayehudi out of the government. Netanyahu fears upsetting the religious Zionist voters who so graciously saved him last March and destroying any good will they may have left for him.
On top of this Bennett has threaten to scorn the government from the opposition, and Netanyahu knows he has it in him. With Bennett in the opposition, he could become the champion, the replacement for Netanyahu among the right that Bibi has so long dreaded. Without Bennett under his call and beckon, Bibi knows that opens up Bennett as the ultimate threat from the right. Also allowing Lapid, Lieberman, and Bennett to fraternize in the opposition, sounds like a bitter pill for Bibi to swallow, come next election.
The second problem that emerges is the Labor party’s own inner chaos. Netanyahu knows if he were to bring the Zionist Union into the government now with a leadership election on such short notice, his government would be dependent on the whim of the Labor party’s activist base. If Netanyahu is willing to marginalize his relationship with Bennett once again for the stability of a unity government, he sure is going to make sure the next Labor leader won’t just pull out and cause another election.
For once, Herzog and Netanyahu’s interests converge. Both need to avoid another election cycle, to be able to appropriately consolidate the power they need to justify another run. Netanyahu needs a raison d’état for continued rule — an accomplishment. And Herzog needs the experience, plus the profile of security experience to present himself as tough enough to rule. The security bet Herzog is making is a longshot, as Israel is surrounded by hostility and chaos on every border, and one mistake as Defense Minister can end a promising political career: see Amir Peretz.
Herzog’s opponents from the left and the right within the party are increasingly coming viciously at his throat — he knows to preserve his legacy and his goals for the party, he must shut down the clamoring before it engulfs him. For Herzog, the Labor Party’s much ado, must end to be about nothing.
