Quick, crank up the AC!
It’s getting hotter all over the world. Reliance on air conditioning is contributing to the problem.
Even if you consider yourself to be a climate-conscious person, you’re likely guilty of cranking up the air conditioning this summer.
There’s a good reason to do it. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Tuesday that June 2024 was the warmest June on record around the globe. The measured global surface temperature was 2.20 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average and marked an increase of 0.27 degrees over the June 2023 record. This past June was a continuation of 13 months of record heat, the agency said.
In the contiguous United States, above-average and record heat has gripped states this summer. The average temperature last month was 3.4 degrees above average: the second warmest temperature on record. Two Southwest states — Arizona and New Mexico — had their warmest Junes, while 18 others saw Junes ranking among their top 10 years. Lastly, 24 million Americans in the West, South, and Northeast felt their warmest June for overnight temperatures.
Still, 2023 was the world’s warmest year on record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
Although last year saw the return of an El Niño climate pattern after three consecutive years of La Niña, climatologists say La Niña is “favored” for this fall. There’s a 79% chance for a shift from November to January. The patterns are opposite phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO. The recurring phenomenon changes global atmospheric circulation. La Niña brings warmer and drier conditions to the South and cooler temperatures in the North, but it can also lead to more severe hurricane seasons.
Recent oppressive heat waves have made daily life in northern coastal hubs like New York City and Washington, D.C., much harder to muddle through. Temperatures in the high 90s and low triple digits have often felt much less bearable due to higher due points.
Furthermore, air quality in New York has frequently risen to unhealthy levels, with the city’s Emergency Management Department issuing advisories alongside National Weather Service (NWS) heat advisories. “This heat is not normal, we’ve said it over and over again. Climate change is here and is real, and it is a clear and present danger,” New York City Mayor Eric Adams told reporters during a Monday briefing.
One of the clear and present dangers from heat like this is death. A recent Associated Press analysis found that the number of people who passed away last summer with death certificates mentioning the effects of excessive heat was the highest in 45 years of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The record 2,300 deaths was expected to be just a sliver of the real death toll. “We can be confident saying that 2023 was the worst year we’ve had from since … we’ve started having reliable reporting on that,” Dr. John Balbus, director of the Office of Climate Change and Health Equity at the Department of Health and Human Services, told the news agency.
The department says that 594 counties — the majority in Texas— are expected to have five or more extremely hot days in July, with nearly 63 million people put at risk. Heat deaths have been increasing across the nation for the last three years.
In the Big Apple, the number of average heat deaths each summer is tallied in the hundreds. Approximately 350 New Yorkers die from May through September. Of those counted, 340 were heat-exacerbated deaths and seven were heat-stress deaths. There’s a difference. While heat-exacerbated deaths are caused by heat exacerbating an underlying illness, heat-stress deaths are caused directly by heat. Heat-exacerbated deaths have increased in the city over the past decade.
While deaths across all races were more common at home, the city said Black New Yorkers have a higher likelihood of both heat-stress and heat-exacerbated deaths due to structural inequity and other factors. The city’s government says these facts spotlight the importance of accessible and affordable home cooling, and that lack of access to home air conditioning is the “most important risk factor for heat-stress death.” Heat-exacerbated deaths were also more likely to happen at home.
Air conditioning can ensure homes — and home offices, with more people working remotely than ever — are livable. Without access to it, prison inmates and those living at homeless shelters are exposed to the elements and the living conditions they are afforded. And, people living on urban heat islands like New York experience higher temperatures than those living in outlying areas. A new study from the nonprofit Climate Central found that New Yorkers have the highest urban heat island index, beating out neighboring Newark, New Jersey, and the infamously hot Phoenix, Arizona. The study said New York City makes temperatures a whopping 9.7 degrees hotter.
Right now, 90% of city households report having an air conditioning unit. But, in some low-income neighborhoods, that number falls to 76%. Having an air conditioner and being able to afford its use are two separate issues. The government said 15% of surveyed New Yorkers admitted they had it but didn’t use it in hot weather. Of those surveyed, 1 out of 4 people cited the cost of electricity. A June report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association and Center for Energy Poverty and Climate found keeping homes cool is getting more expensive, with the average U.S. electric bill from June to September rising nearly 8%: the highest average in a decade. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that bills from June through August would be about 3% more expensive than last year due to increased electricity demand.
Although increased electricity use is necessary to stave off heat deaths, Adams is urging people to remain “mindful” regarding their own usage. The Democrat came under fire a few weeks ago after requesting New Yorkers set air conditioning to a balmy 78 degrees and a low setting: a request he has maintained.
While the city has launched a program for New Yorkers to apply for a free air conditioner and installation through the Home Energy Assistance Program (you can visit nyc.gov/hra and search for HEAP Cooling Application or call 212–331–3126 from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET), applications for Cooling Assistance benefits close on Friday at 5 p.m.
But, as much as air conditioning is the bandaid, it is also the problem. That’s something we’ve known for years. Most equipment uses man-made chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons to cool rooms. They’re greenhouse gases (which trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere) and use up a lot of energy. Their impact on global warming is hundreds to thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide: the most abundant greenhouse gas. With temperatures rising, hydrofluorocarbon usage is growing. United Nations Environment Programme Energy and Climate Branch Chief Mark Radka said last June that emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning are expected to double by 2030 and triple by 2050. Yet, finding an alternative has proven tricky.
New technology is critical to ensuring the slow of this “feedback loop.” This is also something we’ve been aware of, and one March study published by scientists in the United Arab Emirates said they had been able to lessen air conditioning reliance. Last winter, New Scientist reported researchers at the Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology had developed a device that was free of coolants and could slash energy use. Another device could help bring down humidity, cutting energy used for air conditioning.
Something else that could help reduce heat deaths is policy — especially as more and more regions come to rely on air conditioning across the country. Earlier this year, agencies from nine states agreed to increase heat pump sales to meet energy demands. President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act also offers tax credits and other incentives to lower-income households that make their homes more energy-efficient. While regulations have been written to fight off extreme cold, Vox noted last week that there is little regulation to protect residents from extreme heat. New York City Councilman Lincoln Restler recently proposed legislation that would require landlords to give tenants air conditioning units or cooling systems during the summer months. There would be fines for those who don’t comply, according to Gothamist. “This will save lives as we reckon with the challenges of the climate crisis,” Restler told The New York Times. Should the law pass, the paper said buildings would have four years to comply.
Air conditioning was designed by New York engineer Willis Carrier in 1902. The NWS said the average annual temperature that year was 52.1 degrees. Over the past few decades, that average has risen by three to more than four degrees. Air conditioning was not affordable and found in U.S. homes until decades after its design. Now, around 90% of American homes use air conditioning, according to a 2020 EIA survey. We rely on our A.C. and blast it, according to a TIME analysis of EIA statistics from 2015. That reliance will only increase in the years to come.
In the next few weeks, more heat waves are forecast. A CNN analysis said Wednesday that hundreds of cities in every U.S. state are on track for one of their 10-warmest summers on record. California, which saw sweltering heat at the beginning of July, is getting another heat wave soon. New York City is expected to see some welcome relief.
Current and long-term solutions to the problems posed above are hazy, like city air quality. But, one thing is crystal clear: the cost of cooling at our current rate and velocity will be lives. And, hotter summers are coming.
Think of that memeable exchange between Homer and Bart Simpson in “The Simpsons Movie.” Last summer was the hottest summer of our lives “so far.”
