How Eurovision would have gone under the old voting system
Australia would have won Eurovision in 2016 if the old voting system was in place.
Having done the new voting system results for past editions of the show, I figured it’d make sense to do the old voting system for this year’s results. Turned out to be quite interesting.
2016 is the first year (since at least 2009 when the split jury-public votes were first announced) that the winner under the new system was different to that which was calculated under the 2009–2015 system. The 09–15 system of course involves the combination of the national jury and televote rankings to produce a single set of 58 national points. The new system meant two sets of points were given by each country, 58 from their jury and 58 from their public vote.
Poring over the jury and televote results was very interesting. The jury and public voting rankings were sometimes polar opposites of one another, and there were a few public favourites who would have been cancelled out by the jury vote of their country if the old system was in place. Some examples include Montenegro in SF1 who did well enough with the public to get 13th overall in SF1 under the new rules, but under the old system would have come last, and Poland in the final. Poland’s fourth place from the public would have been handily cancelled out by the second-last ranking given to them by the juries, relegating them to 19th overall. Malta provided an excellent counter-point to this. The juries voted quite well for Malta, but the low public vote for Malta would have seen Ira Losco’s song move from 12th to 24th under the old rules.
Australia would have won Eurovision on Sunday (AU time) if the old voting system was in place, with a very comfortable 41 point margin over Ukraine (279) and an 80 point margin over Russia. Australia would have missed out on points from only one country, Montenegro.
Unlike past years, the voting system used would have had no impact on the semi-final qualifiers which tells me that the 10 songs which qualified from each semi-final were quite safe.
The excitement of the new system might well be worth the changes to the results that occur, but that’s for the maths and entertainment boffins to decide in Europe :)
Thanks for a great show this year Sweden!
The results would have been:
FINAL
1. Australia (+1, 320 pts)
2. Ukraine (-1, 279 pts)
3. Russia (NC, 240 pts)
4. Bulgaria (NC, 182 pts)
5. France (+1, 166 pts)
6. Sweden (-1, 156 pts)
7. Armenia (NC, 141 pts)
8. Lithuania (+1, 102 pts)
9. Belgium (+1, 89 pts)
10. The Netherlands (+1, 76 pts)
11. Latvia (+4, 75 pts)
12. Austria (+1, 69 pts)
13. Italy (+3, 69 pts)
14. Hungary (+5, 62 pts)
15. Serbia (+3, 61 pts)
16. Azerbaijan (+1, 55 pts)
17. Georgia (+3, 55 pts)
18. Cyprus (+3, 52 pts)
19. Poland (-11, 49 pts)
20. Spain (+2, 34 pts)
21. Israel (-7, 27 pts)
22. United Kingdom (+2, 27 pts)
23. Croatia (NC, 23 pts)
24. Malta (-12, 18 pts)
25. Germany (+1, 8 pts)
26. Czech Republic (-1, 1 pt)
Breakdown of 12s in FINAL:
8 for Ukraine (GEO, ITA, LVA, MDA, POL, SMR, SRB, SLO)
8 for Australia (ALB, CRO, DEN, HUN, ISL, NOR, SWE, NED)
5 for Russia (AZE, BLR, CYP, GRE, MNE)
4 for Sweden (AUT, EST, FIN, GER)
3 for Bulgaria (MKD, IRE, MLT)
3 for France (BEL, ISR, ESP)
2 for Armenia (BGA, RUS)
2 for Austria (FRA, SUI)
1 for Belgium (AUS)
1 for Serbia (BIH)
1 for Azerbaijan (UKR)
1 for Hungary (CZE)
1 for Georgia (ARM)
1 for Latvia (LTU)
1 for Lithuania (GBR)
SEMI-FINAL ONE:
1. Russia (NC, 196 pts)
2. Armenia (NC, 133 pts)
3. Hungary (+1, 115 pts)
4. The Netherlands (+1, 115 pts)
5. Malta (-2, 104 pts)
6. Azerbaijan (NC, 90 pts)
7. Austria (NC, 85 pts)
8. Czech Republic (+1, 79 pts)
9. Cyprus (-1, 75 pts)
10. Croatia (NC, 62 pts)
11. Bosnia and Herzegovina (NC, 44 pts)
12. Greece (+4, 27 pts)
13. Iceland (+1, 23 pts)
14. Finland (+1, 21 pts)
15. San Marino (-3, 19 pts)
16. Moldova (+1, 12 pts)
17. Estonia (+1, 10 pts)
18. Montenegro (-5, 8 pts)
Breakdown of 12s for SF1:
9 for Russia (AZE, CYP, GRE, HUN, ISL, MLT, MDA, MNE, SWE)
4 for The Netherlands (AUT, EST, FIN, SMR)
3 for Armenia (RUS, ESP, NED)
2 for Hungary (CRO, CZE)
1 for Malta (ARM)
1 for Croatia (BIH)
1 for Austria (FRA)
SEMI-FINAL TWO:
1. Australia (NC, 190 pts)
2. Ukraine (NC, 158 pts)
3. Belgium (NC, 151 pts)
4. Bulgaria (+1, 123 pts)
5. Lithuania (-1, 114 pts)
6. Latvia (+2, 70 pts)
7. Poland (-1, 63 pts)
8. Israel (-1, 58 pts)
9. Georgia (NC, 57 pts)
10. Serbia (NC, 51 pts)
11. F.Y.R. Macedonia (NC, 44 pts)
12. Belarus (NC, 38 pts)
13. Norway (NC, 28 pts)
14. Slovenia (NC, 24 pts)
15. Albania (+1, 16 pts)
16. Ireland (-1, 15 pts)
17. Denmark (NC, 13 pts)
18. Switzerland (NC, 5 pts)
Breakdown of 12s for SF2:
5 for Belgium (AUS, BGA, DEN, IRE, SLO)
5 for Australia (BEL, GER, ISR, SWE, UKR)
4 for Ukraine (GEO, ITA, LVA, POL)
3 for F.Y.R. Macedonia (ALB, NOR, SRB)
2 for Lithuania (BLR, GBR)
1 for Serbia (MKD)
1 for Latvia (LTU)
