Fantasy Players I’m Avoiding and Reaching for on Draft Day

Michael Dugger
Aug 25, 2017 · 6 min read

Predicting how your fantasy draft will unfold after of the 1st round of is nearly impossible to nail down. Some league member could pull the trigger on a QB in the first two rounds that starts a chain event of quarterbacks getting selected much earlier than expected. This is why the best way to prepare for your draft is by compiling a small list of players at each position that you have a good feeling about and want to roster, or would rather look for production elsewhere.

And that is what I have done by putting together my list of players to avoid and players that are worth taking a round or two ahead of the average draft position (ADP). When I say avoid I don’t mean ignore drafting them all together. There are situations where a given player falls well-below his ADP and provides nice value by waiting an extra 2 or 3 rounds and is worth a shot taking. As usual, every aspect of the player’s striation is taken into account from offensive line play to target/carry competition to coaching schemes.

Quarterbacks to Avoid:

Andrew Luck- he’s not expected to play in the season opener and has no timetable set for his return. His starting center, Ryan Kelly, is missing the first 4–6 weeks with his own injury, adding to the pass protection troubles that have affected them in past seasons. Luck’s a top-5 QB when healthy, but there’s too much injury concern around him and the o-line for me to risk taking him unless he free falls in draft.

Ben Roethlisberger- He contemplated retirement in the offseason, and is way too inconsistent for my liking. Look at these home/road splits I’ve mentioned in the past:

Tyrod Taylor- this pains me to include him on this list, but Tyrod lost his biggest weapon in the passing game with Sammy Watkins’ trade to the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills seem to moving towards a rebuild with Tyrod not certain to be in their future plans. His ground game production keeps him relevant.

Worth a Reach:

Marcus Mariota- I have him ranked 8th and I could see myself taking him above anybody outside the top 3. Mariota was given weapons in Corey Davis and Eric Decker to go with his top-5 running attack and tight end Delanie Walker. I’m expecting a massive season for the former Oregon Duck.

Carson Wentz- he will be forced to throw with Philly projected to struggle running the football once again and his receiving corps. upgraded significantly. Wentz was playable a season ago with Lane Johnson at right tackle and should be a solid QB2 this season.

Sam Bradford- my affinity towards Bradford and the Vikings this year may be getting out of hand, but there’s too much talent on this offense for him not to improve off last year’s positive season. If his o-line doesn’t self-destruct, he will set career marks in yards and touchdowns.

Favorite Deep Sleepers: Jared Goff- don’t laugh, he will turn heads within the new offensive scheme. Deshone Kizer- big arm, great o-line, underrated weapons.

Running Backs to Avoid:

Paul Perkins- the Giants o-line isn’t trustworthy in enough to trust Perkins as a starter and he forfeits passing downs to Shane Vereen. If the o-line turns it around he’s intriguing. But I’m bullish on their potential.

Image via New England Patriots

All Patriots RBs- New England changes it’s scheme on a weekly basis and form gameplans for RBs based on matchups. Gillislee and Burkhead should share goal line work with Dion Lewis and james White rotating on 3rd down at wide out. Not enough individual volume to get overly excited about.

Ty Montgomery- impressed as a makeshift tailback a year ago, but he’s already inured heading into Saturday’s game and I think the rookie behind him, Jamaal Williams, will take away his workload as the season progresses. I like the player, but he’s not worth taking as a top 15 back.

LeGarrette Blount- I talked earlier about Philly’s run game struggles and Blount won’t get the same number of goal line carries he saw a year ago with New England. He’s a non-factor in the passing game.

Ameer Abdullah- another talented player that has exciting talent that struggles to stay on the field and plays behind a shaky offensive line. Zach Zenner could vulture goal line carries and Theo Riddick handles most of the passing down/no-huddle snaps.

Worth a Reach:

Christian McCaffery- the hype is real. He will be the main back in Carolina and will line up at wide receiver plenty. He’s arguably a top-12 PPR back with an offense that will play to his strengths.

Dalvin Cook- another rookie figured to play on all 3 downs. He has looked comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield in preseason and we all know about his rare elusiveness and vision with the ball in his hands Cook has little competition behind him until Latavius Murray returns from injury.

Doug Martin- he’s suspended the first 3 weeks of the season and that won’t stop me from taking him in the early part of the draft. Desean Jackson’s speed doesn’t just open up the passing game, but also forces defenses to keep a safety out of the box protecting the run. Martin will be fresh and has looked great in camp.

Doug Martin/Image via CBS Sports

Favorite Deep Sleepers: Kareem Hunt (KC), Jalen Richard (OAK), Chris Carson (SEA), Tarik Cohen (CHI), Marlon Mack (IND)

Wide Receivers to Avoid:

Allen Robinson- we all know how talented he is, but a big part of having productive wide outs is QB play and Jacksonville’s QB situation frightens me. Blake Bortles was benched for Chad Henne last night and the front office seems comfortable heading into the season with these two and rookie Brandon Allen (who’s actually looked the best). I could be wrong about Robinson, but I’m taking my chances elsewhere then Bortles or Henne.

Jarvis Landry- the biggest benefactor from Ryan Tannehill’s underneath passing game was Landry. But with big arm Jay Cutler now leading the offense, the receiver’s role could take a step backwards. Cutler loves chucking it downfield and a receiver who will be named shortly figures to overtake Landry as the #1 target. Landry has PPR appeal, but I would avoid him in standard leagues.

Worth a Reach:

Devante Parker- the Dolphins best receiver will be Parker. His potential has been lauded since he came into the league in 2015 and he finally has the QB who fits his style. Cutler is already heaving jump balls to Parker who will win most of those given his size and athleticism. Factoring in how dominant other big body receivers like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were with Cutler shows Parker’s fantasy potential. I will have a hard time passing on him after round 5 or 6.

Pierre Garcon- the 49ers will be behind in games and have no choice but to throw. Garcon recently had 184 targets in 2013 playing under Kyle Shannahan, so I’m expecting the same numbers factoring in garbage time minutes. Brian Hoyer force fed DeAndre Hopkins in Houston and could do the same with Garcon this season.

Jeremy Maclin- his yardage won’t be impressive, but if you’re looking for a safe bet for 5 catches 50 yards, maybe a redzone target in a pass-happy offense, it is tough to top Maclin’s value late in drafts. Baltimore throws the ball a ton and Flacco is missing his two trusted targets over the past couple seasons with Steve Smith Sr. retiring and Dennis Pitta out with injury again. Maclin’s steady play has a place on every team.

Favorite Deep Sleepers: Zay Jones (BUF), Kenny Galladay (DET), Devin Funchess (CAR), Ted Ginn Jr. (NO)

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