The AFC South is ready to contend, this postseason and plenty after+ Divisional Round predictions
No matter the outcome in the upcoming Divisional Weekend games, the AFC South is st-up to be the next great NFL division.
One of the running jokes in the NFL over the past couple seasons has been the lack of depth and talent being acquired in the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans traded off winning the division by taking advantage of playing six games against the “lesser competition” of their division, and were often considered non-threats in the AFC despite hosting playoff games.
And there was plenty of reasoning behind why these jokes continued for multiple seasons given the state of the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars during this time span. Tennessee was starting Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Zach Mettenberger, and Charlie Whitehurst from 2011–2014. Jacksonville’s QB situation isn’t as bad, but Luke McCown, Baline Gabbert, Chad Henne, and now Blake Bortles (at this stage) won’t win you many ball games.
Not all of the blame can be placed on the QB position given these teams went 14–50 (JAX) and 24–40 (TEN) from 2011–14. This allowed them to accumulate high draft picks and select the best players available or leverage those picks into more picks as Tennessee did a couple seasons ago. With new coaches at the helm and each organization (JAX in particular) has dished out money in free agency, resulting in them leap frogging the Texans and Colts to finish 1–2 in the division, winning a playoff game, and locked into the final four of the AFC this season.
Combine these turnarounds with the looming returns of the Colts and Texans starting QBs (hopefully Luck), and you have the makings of a competitive division for the foreseeable future. Three of the four teams have bonafide franchise QBs (Bortles remains to be seen), the most important position in football needed for long-term success..
The Colts have struggled to build a compatible roster to pair with Andrew Luck, but he led them to the 2015 AFC Championship game. Who knows if Luck will return in the 2018 season, so they could remain at the bottom of the division if his shoulder situation remains murky. The brightside is Chris Ballard is in charge of rebuilding the roster and did a decent job in his first season, virtually a lost one without Luck.
The Titans have their cornerstone QB in Marcus Mariota, and have invested plenty of draft picks in ensuring he’s in the best position to succeed. Tailback Derrick Henry and wide receiver Corey Davis were drafted in the first 2 rounds to give him strong skill position players, and they’ve drafted two offensive lineman with top 11 picks since 2014. People harp on the staleness of the coaching staff and the offensive playcalling, but the Titans’ front office is doing their part to surround Mariota with talent. This is a young team gaining valuable playoff experience and has a plenty of upside on their roster.
The only thing that consistently trips the Texans up is injuries and QB play. Their defense has undergone injuries across the board, most notably JJ Watt, but never were a threat in the playoffs given their stable of QBs. Insert Deshaun Watson to the mix and now health is the lone aspect holding them back from being a Super Bowl contender. With Watson on a rookie contract, DeAndre Hopkins signed, and a defense that still has the talent when healthy, Houston should be a strong team for years to come.
And finally, the Jacksonville jaguars who built the NFL’s best defense through the draft and free agency. This unit has elite talent at all three levels, and most of them are under contract for a couple seasons. This defense has proved they can dominate teams en route to a division crown despite so-so (putting it nicely) QB play from Bortles. His upcoming expiring contract will be the talking point for their offseason,especially considering the QBs that will be available this offseason, but their defense and their staple of offensive skill-players that they’ve quietly assembled, make them a legit contender themselves.
The Colts are coachless at the moment, but the other organizations seem to have settled on their coaching staff/ front office partnerships. Houston extended Bill O’ Brien’s contract and brought in a GM that he’s worked with in the past. Tennessee doubled down on their support for Mike Mularkey. And Jacksonville is set with Doug Marrone, Dave Caldwell and Tom Coughlin in control in Duval. Each of these staffs are establishing a culture from top-to-bottom in their locker room, giving players a comfortable environment to succeed.
If I was a fan of any team in the AFC South, I’d feel really good about their outlook in the near future. With their best players and important QBs under contract for a couple season, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see more occasions where the AFC South makes up half the playoff field on Divisional weekend.
And quickly, onto the actual games this weekend. The spread is provided by the Westgate Superbook.
Atlanta (-3) @ Philadelphia, Saturday 4:35 PM
I know the Falcons are the experienced team with the far better QB, but I don’t see Matt Ryan evading pressure like he did last week vs. the Rams when he takes on the Eagles defensive front. Nick Foles will make just enough plays in a game dominated by RB Jay Ajayi. And playing a postseason game in Philly is tough to overcome as a dome team. Fly Eagles Fly, 23–16.
Tennessee @ New England (-13.5), Saturday 8:15 PM
The Pats rarely lose at home and I don’t see Tennessee as a team to do it, but I think this game will be much closer than the two-touchdown spread. New England isn’t a great rush defense and Bill Belichick gets frustrated with mobile QBs like Mariota. I’m expecting a big Derrick Henry game, but Brady should pick apart Tennessee’s defense with ease. Tennessee will try to slow the game down, but New England wins in the end, 31–24.
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-7), Sunday 1:05 PM
The Week 5, 30–9 victory by Jacksonville in Pittsburgh this season won’t impact this game at all, but I see the Jags coming out on top still. Their defense has improved and is more equipped to handle Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers ground game. Can a less than 100% Antonio Brown create separation against the top secondary in the league? Can Leonard Fournette get things rolling again, going up against a struggling Steelers run defense since Ryan Shazier went down injured? Defenses like Jacksonville can carry teams in the playoffs, and I think they get the job done again, 20–17.
New Orleans @ Minnesota (-5). Sunday 4:40 PM
The Vikings have been the best team in football that I’ve watched all season and I see them representing the NFC and winning the Super Bowl. The Saints’ offense is as balanced and explosive group that you’ll find in the NFL, but I don’t see how they move the ball consistently against Minnesota, who has speed, power, and smart players across their defense. New Orleans defense is much improved from seasons past, but have struggled since linebacker AJ Klein was lost for the season. Minnesota’s array of offensive playmakers are too much for the Saints to counter. The Vikings are balanced on both sides of the ball and take this one comfortably, 27–17.
